Brigadier-General (reserves) Yossi Kuperwasser spent his military career as an intelligence officer, rising to head the Research and Assessment Division of IDF Intelligence.

On Sunday night, April 27, 2008, in The Jerusalem Great Synagogue, Kuperwasser was hosted by Shurat HaDin – Israel Law Center, which is head by attorney Nitzana Darshan-Leitner, an organization playing a leading role in using the international legal system to combat Iranian terror.

SHURAT HADIN TAKES ISRAEL’S CASE TO WORLD COURTS

Shurat HaDin has filed lawsuits on behalf of terror victims in courts around the world, having received a number of sizable judgments against Iran in US courts, now left with the tiresome task of addressing the European judicial communities towards actualizing the judgments, seeking to attach bank accounts and funds of Iran in Europe. Towards achieving this noble goal, Shurat HaDin has had Iran locked out of a number of countries, including Germany, Italy and France, which means Tehran can no longer trade in those countries or use its banks as it works towards achieving its goal, the new Iranian world order.

KUPERWASSER FOCUSES ON THE IRANIAN THREAT

Kuperwasser explained to the audience that he intends to give an overview of the Iranian threat without compromising any classified military information. His remarks touched on many other subjects and related issues, but time restrictions compelled him to remain on target, focusing his attention on the Iranian threat, while pushing aside the many issues that are embedded in the complexities of the issue.

The former senior intelligence officer stated that in short, we must be aware that Iran has a goal in mind, one that involves a new Islamic fundamentalist world order, one that does not include Israel in the Middle East, one that does not include the current realities as we know them in Europe and the United States. Tehran will continue tenacious efforts towards achieving this goal for as long as leaders of the current regime are confident they have more to gain than to loose by pursuing the current political/military path.

IRAN VIEWS A NEW ISLAMIC WORLD ORDER

For Iran, the issue is far greater than Israel’s destruction, with Tehran determined to eradicating Western culture and the world ‘as we know it today,’ which Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad insists must change; confident the global Islamic revolution will succeed in actualizing this new world order.

For now, it appears the concerned nations are playing a waiting game, each hoping the other will make the critical move. In 1981, Israel targeted the Iraqi nuclear reactor. In Sept. 2007, Israel once again targeted a Syrian nuclear reactor. The fact of the matter remains however that the Iranian threat is not only Israel’s problem, but that of the free world since continued progress on the Iranian enrichment program will be a major step towards Iran realizing a major step towards actualizing its scheme to change the world order.

Islamic leaders have stated openly that they are indeed working towards taking over the world. The Iranian leadership does not respect western values, values that it considers a threat to Islam, values that are contradictory to Islamic beliefs and the extremist way of life, and if not deterred, Tehran will continue forging ahead towards nuclear independence, the construction of a nuclear bomb and then marching forward towards the actualization of the master plan.

Iranian officials are working openly and actively towards changing world realities, rejecting Western values, seeking to replace them with Islamic values. Iranian officials do not accept responsibility or feel remorse when civilians are killed as long as they are progressing in their struggle towards the new world order. They are unable to compromise since they are motivated by their religious beliefs and prefer to or are even compelled to continue the battle until they emerge the victor.

OLD TACTICS ARE NO LONGER APPLICABLE

Up to the Cold War, deterrence was sufficient to overcome communism and the communist threat but in today’s case, it appears the Iranians are willing to die and sacrifice lives towards achieving their goal, all the way promoting their policy of non-accountability – blaming Israel and the West, particularly the United States, for the loss of life, pain and suffering.

Any response feeds their scenario, a self-fulfilling prophecy. This helps to explain and understand how the Hamas regime continues to control Gaza, launches unprovoked attacks while speaking of a “hudna” and despite the sanctions placed on Gaza, continues to point the finger of blame at Israel. Then, when speaking of a ceasefire, the terror leaders boldly exclaim they must have a referendum to ensure the population supports a cessation of hostilities with Israel – exhibiting a democratic air of existence.

When concessions are made to Hamas, those very same concessions are interpreted as a sign of weakness, encouraging the continuation of the struggle towards toppling the Western values that exist today.

US PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FLEX THEIR MUSCLES

Recently, democratic candidates for the US presidency mentioned if Israel is attacked by Iran, the response would be harsh. The same response was echoed by the White House, Reading between the lines [as the intelligence community does] one can understand that for Iran, this means the administration will now accept a nuclear Iran and will only react if Israel is attacked.

The United States continues speaking of “red lines” but since 2005, these lines have all been crossed, with Tehran well aware the warnings and threats are nothing more than meaningless rhetoric. A major red line was crossed with the “conversion process” in which UF6 (Uranium hexafluoride) for the enrichment of uranium was processed, defying the White House. There were no consequences to overstepping yet another “red line”. 

IRANIAN STATEMENTS FALL ON DEAF EARS

When Iran spoke of a “small reactor” with only 164 centrifuges, no one reacted despite realizing this is large enough to enrich uranium towards producing a nuclear weapon. After a year, having permitted adequate time to pass to complete or almost complete the conversion process, the United Nations Security Council once again came to life, voting on economic sanctions, which to date have been all but meaningless. Yes, the Iranians are suffering, but they remain committed to their long-term goal, the change of the world order, which dictates they endure that which comes their way until the objective is achieved.

In short, the international community cannot pressure Iran into changing course with economic sanctions alone. One must remember that since the sanctions were voted on, over two years have passed and the uranium enrichment program continues to move forward. The West is foolish to believe Russia and/or China will pressure Iran. We now know the pressure failed since the uranium enrichment began on January 9, 2006, and today, there are some 3,000 centrifuges, with that number literally growing daily.

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE PAINTS ANOTHER PICTURE

While there are disputes regarding intelligence community reports, with Israel insisting the point-of-no-return is not too far off in the future, America’s National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) states we are still a number of years away.

What is important to realize is that Iran has the technology and it can continue working. Considerable progress has already been made in long-range missile technology, and the fitting of a nuclear warhead on such a missile, as is confirmed in the NIE report. The NIE makes reference to the “weaponization process” of the nuclear program stopped in 2003, but today, we see an entirely different and alarming reality.

The NIE even goes as far as to state the program actually began in the late 1980s, lasting for 15 years, adequate time to permit Tehran to get where it wishes to go. If Tehran has the ability to enrich uranium, then a nuclear bomb can be readied by 2009, next year.

Realizing Iran is a year away from producing a bomb, one must assume that significant progress has been made to date. In short, the NIE is very misleading.

RUSSIA & CHINA PREFER PLAYING BOTH SIDES OF THE FENCE

Russia and China prefer denial, stating we lack definitive proof as to the status of the Iranian program.

On the other hand, Israel must assume Washington has definitive proof since the NIE report mentions the progress in the weaponization program. The report states the program is 50% non-functional, which according to Israel means it is 50% functional – which in simple terms means a nuclear weapon is on the way.

SYRIA ADOPTS THE PHILOSOPHY OF NON-ACCOUNTABILITY

Syria is another splendid example. Despite the classified material presented to the US Congress, supported by photos and other data, the Syrians opted to deny the existence of a nuclear facility, which falls in line with the Islamic policy of non-accountability.

Iran poses a number of problems, the terror threat and the Holocaust denial but the nuclear threat by far exceeds all else, demanding immediate attention.

NO ONE WANTS TO PREEMPT

The idea of a preemptive strike is not an easy one, one that the US democratic presidential candidates told Kuperwasser is “difficult to think about,” not a comforting thought as one of them may soon occupy the White House. Some believe the NIE was published to further deter or even rule out the possibility of a US preemptive move, as the White House would much prefer Israel make the move. No one really believes the sanctions will produce results, or prevent the production of a nuclear weapon. Only true deterrence will yield such results, meaning Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad must realize by continuing, his regime and his future are truly in jeopardy.

Unfortunately, both America and Israel to some extent prefer the short-term silence or even absence of conflict to the thought of engaging Iran, which will indeed retaliate if attacked. That said however, while Iran’s military is a formidable force; it is no match for the American military, or even Israel for that matter. Yes, there will be a price to be paid, but this price will increase many fold if we sit back and wait for the nuclear weapon.

IRANIANS NOT TOO PLEASED WITH CURRENT REGIME

There are problems at home and many Iranians would prefer a change of leadership. They are not pleased with the economic sanctions, coupled with ethnic tensions, and Iran does need to import 50% of its oil, but all of this will not push the masses to revolution, the factors will not eliminate the problem which must be faced by Israel and her allies.

Based on conversation with Iranians [whose names Kuperwasser was unwilling to release], it is known that the Iranian regime fears instability, perhaps even more than a Western military assault, which is why no action will be taken internally for now. Ahmadinejad prefers to permit the current status quo to continue, the lesser of available evils.

ISRAEL HAS THE CAPABILITIES TO STRIKE FIRST

While the situation is significantly more difficult and complicated than in Iraq and Syria, if compelled to act, Israel can deal with the matter militarily, realizing there are numerous facilities and their whereabouts are known. Much is known, including the fact that some walls are 11 meters (35.75 feet) wide, with alternating layers of cement and dirt, all manufactured to withstand impact.

IRAN WOULD RETALIATE

There will be other retaliatory reverberations too, including short term increase in oil prices, but as is the case in America today, life continues and in the long term, after the Iranian threat is eliminated; the oil prices will stabilize at a much lower level. As tenuous as the situation appears today, it will become increasingly complex the longer we wait to act. The situation today is no less urgent than in the late part of WWII when America decided to use the atom bomb. All our resources must be used, now. “Yes it is difficult, but I believe in America and Israel” stated Kuperwasser.

AMERICA HAS A DIFFERENT AGENDA THAN ISRAEL

During the years 1996-2001, Israel informed the United States that Russia was supporting development of long-range missiles in Iran, calling on America to intervene. It was clear as day back then that these missiles one day were intended to deliver a nuclear warhead to a target.

During the same time period, it was documented for the Americans that many Russian and Iranian technicians and engineers were working in Iran, conducting trials, but eventually, it became clear the American agenda differed from Israel’s – not upsetting Russia was a higher priority than acting on the intelligence information delivered by Jerusalem.

No one punished China for supplying the UF-6 to Iran in 1991, and for giving the Iran conversion facility. The idle threats and red lines did not halt Iranian progress.

These area additional examples explaining why Iran does not respond to western threats, realizing they consequences, such as current sanctions, are livable in light of the long-term objective vis-à-vis the new world order.

IRAN CAN MAKE 10 BOMBS

The Iranians today have some 300 tons of UF-6, enough to make 10 nuclear bombs. Israel alerted America, Europe and the world, and did her utmost to intervene to halt the Russians who made it all possible, but to no avail. The West had its own agenda.

Perhaps leaders rely on history, believing in the worst case scenario, we can react a moment after the fact, as has been done in the past, after Pearl Harbor, after 9/11, after Tanzania and Kenya.

In 1998-2001, the writing was on the walls, but nothing was done, the same as in Afghanistan. It is Israel’s hope that the international community will not wait – seeking to avoid a Pearl Harbor scenario.

Asked to please estimate the damage regarding an Iranian retaliatory strike on Israel now, today, as compared to following the presence of an Iranian nuclear bomb, Kuperwasser stated that whatever the damage would be today, it is 1:10,000 to what will follow if Iran has true nuclear capabilities.

In summation, the Iranian threat may today be at the forefront of the international media, but its existence is not a new entity with the United States well aware of what was taking place years ago.

Despite the existential threat to Israel, at present, it appears that no ruling leader is going to confront the current situation as long as the nuclear threat is not immediate, or until such time leaders are convinced another country will not preempt and there are no other alternatives.

Many feel that in time, Israel will be left with no other option but to strike out at the numerous nuclear facilities in Iran, realizing that if action is not taken, the consequences for our continued nonfeasance would be significantly higher than those following a preemptive strike.

(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)