Nearly one in four Israelis will be chareidi by the year 2050, according to a new report from the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI).

The study examined how the rapid growth of the Torah-observant public is likely to affect Israel’s economy, education system, and national institutions in the coming decades. It looks at two possible paths: one in which chareidi patterns of education and employment gradually become similar to those of the broader population, and another in which current trends continue.

Based on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, researchers estimate that by 2050, about 24.4% of Israelis will be chareidi. IDI’s own projection places the figure at roughly 22%. Today, chareidim make up about 14% of the population, or approximately 1.45 million people.

The authors of the report — Dr. Gilad Malach, Dr. Itamar Yakir, and Roe Kenneth Portal — wrote that the community’s rapid growth is expected to have a major impact on Israeli society, particularly in the areas of education and employment.

Education and Employment Trends
According to the report, participation in higher education and the workforce remains significantly lower among chareidi men than among the general Jewish population.

Currently, about 71% of Israeli students are eligible for matriculation exams, compared to 16% in the chareidi sector. If this gap does not narrow, the national eligibility rate is expected to drop to 61.5% by 2050. If the gap closes, the rate could rise to 83.6%.

In higher education, 47.1% of Israelis aged 35–44 hold a bachelor’s degree. Among chareidi men, the figure stands at 13%, and among chareidi women, 38%. If these numbers remain unchanged, only 43.7% of Israelis in this age group will hold degrees in 2050.

The report also notes that Israel’s overall employment rate could fall from 78.1% today to 75.8% if current patterns continue. If more chareidim enter the workforce, the rate could rise to 79%.

Economic Impact
The researchers warned that limited economic integration could have major financial consequences. They estimate that the loss to Israel’s economy could exceed 10% of GDP per capita — the equivalent of about 160 billion shekels in 2026 terms.

Experts have long pointed out that these issues are especially significant because the chareidi community is Israel’s fastest-growing population group, with an average of 6.5 children per family.

Military Service Debate
The report also addresses the sensitive issue of military service, which has taken on renewed urgency since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and the ensuing war. The IDF has said it currently needs about 12,000 additional soldiers due to heavy strain on regular and reserve units.

An estimated 80,000 chareidi men aged 18–24 are eligible for service but have not enlisted. In 2024, the High Court of Justice ruled that blanket draft exemptions were illegal, though legislation currently moving through the Knesset would preserve most exemptions.

According to the IDI report, chareidim currently make up 23.5% of those eligible for military service. That figure is expected to rise to 25% by 2030, 33% by 2040, and 40% by 2050.

Call for a New “Social Contract”
The authors concluded that Israel faces an urgent need for what they termed a new and more balanced “social contract” between the state and the chareidi community. They called for major changes in education, employment, and military policy, including linking some state support to core curriculum studies, service requirements, and full participation in the workforce.

At the same time, chareidim have emphasized the central importance of Torah learning and spiritual continuity, the foundation of Klal Yisrael’s strength.

As Israel’s chareidi population continues to grow, the report highlights that the relationship between Torah life, economic participation, and national responsibility is likely to remain one of the most important and closely watched issues in the country’s future.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)