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I agree with Popa, there is very shaky data behind the “crisis”. To see NASI explain the “crisis” in their own words see here http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/there-is-no-shidduch-crisis
I am picking out one choice quote (sorry I don’t know how to italicize)
The shidduch crisis and age gap concept, were NOT discovered by a statistical analysis of how many girls are still single post 28 years old or whatever arbitrary age we would like to use, and contrasting that with the number of older boys who are single. It is almost impossible to accurately count the total number of singles at any given time.
Papa there we have it: the crisis is based on “overwhelming anecdotal evidence”.
forget about all those silly numbers
I know of a follower of Helbrans who did engage his 14 year old daughter to someone at Helbrans request. The daughter did not end of marrying the fellow, but that was because of extreme intervention on the part of her broader family.
Ami went from saying that Helbrans is not a cult to saying all frum people are a cult.
I have known about Helbrans for years, been following the case closely and know a number of people who lived in Monsey when Helbrans lived there. I also know Canadians who know people who were attracted to him more recently. They all say that he is a VERY troubling person who does VERY troubling things. He does marry off 14 year old girls. He does attracted people who might not be emotionally balanced. The people who left have VERY negative things to say about Helbrans and his ways.
I don’t know if every claim the Fifth Estate (Canadain TV) made is true but the gist of what I have heard from people who knows his “followers” is consistent with the negative coverage.
I want to point out the early on in the Ami article they write that the only thing that Lev Tahor has been accused of is being a cult. They tuck in that comment that it is something all frum people could be accused of. Two points.
1) He has been accused of A LOT more than that.
2) If Ami does not understand why frum people in general are not a cult we have think long and hard about why we read their paper. (and BTW Ami is the one who think the “burka women” are a cult).
It is very probable that the sex ratio of shidduch age singles in frum circles is at least 105:100 male to female and the whole NASI theory holds NO water.
The national average in the USA at birth is 105:100 male to female, it does fall to about 104.3:100 by age 24 but that due to boys dying due to gang violence, drug overdose and other vices that be’h are not so prevent in our circles. Additionally the ratio among Caucasians is 106:100 and among Asians 107/8:100. African Americans have 103:100 ration and drag down the national ratio.
So it is almost certain that the age gap theory is NOT the cause of the shidduch crisis.
Boycott the major ADVERTISERS in the Post. That will hurt them much more.
Start a FB page for the cause. List them. Contact the companies on FB. Make as much bad PR for them as possible.January 1, 2014 7:01 pm at 7:01 pm in reply to: Shidduchim – NASI's escrow program has run its course #998105
For those willing to doubt NASI’s theory: the male to female ratio in the USA is 105:100. That means that 105 boys are born for very 100 girls. So we need some boys to marry younger so that they have a chance of getting married.
that explains why chasdim have a male shidduch crisis – because they don’t marry younger.January 1, 2014 6:56 pm at 6:56 pm in reply to: Shidduchim – NASI's escrow program has run its course #998104
Att: GM1 and Mod YWN 127
I would LOVE to see any hard data, that is in the range of scientific muster, in the raw form too. Last spring there was an extensive debate in the Yated about the evidence of the age gap theory causing the shidduch crisis. NASI responded that they have no hard evidence only anecdotal evidence.
Since then I have been a serious skeptic of the age gap theory.
then NSAI might be out of a job (of blindly putting parts out of a sputtering car).
To have a creative theory and only anecdotal evidence to back it up; and based on that want to change long standing frum practices smacks of self interest not objectivity.
They don’t want to know the truth, they want to be in charge.
“”I’m confused. I don’t have statistics to prove it but anecdotal evidence would seem to indicate there is no shidduch crisis among chassidim who have an arranged marriage system, where almost always the bochur is older than the girl. Furthermore it is a very fast growing population. In short, this completely refutes NASI’s mistaken theory.
To the contrary their couples are usually far closer in age than ours, and this proves the NASI theory.””
What if chasidim are having a shidduch crisis and they are not talking about it?
What if the reason chasidim don’t talk about having a shidduch crisis is because the chasidous has tight control’s on what get printed in their papers and very few of them go online?
let us be clear. NASI says they have no statistics.
they have a theory which the only proof they have a size 12 girls, I am loads of anecdotal evidence.
How many of you besides Papa read the letter?
read it an you will see Papa is SOOOO right.
I don’t see any documentation on how big the spread between boys and girls is. So till then it is SPECULATION!
The data about growth seems to be all Orthodox Jews. It is plausible the MO started having more children and Yeshivish stayed the same.
Also all this is a THEORY no one have proven causation – only hypothetical correctional. I see no reason to turn over the world for a creative theory.
Also the claim has been put forth in the Yated that girls in Lakewood, NJ have no shidduch crisis. So for whatever reason that is – there are ways to erase the effect of the age gap.
It might be easier to reproduce the factors that exist in Lakewood than to force dating policy on the world.
That is kind of like free market vs socialism.
There is a distinction between tzedaka and masser. everyone must give tzadaka, but masser is much more complex.
You are right that you 147 cannot say he must give masser, but he must give something.
Do you really believe that the ONLY factor is people not getting married is the age gap and if we “closed” then everyone who be married?
What about all the petty factors people pass up on shidduchim for?
Here a good starting point the UJA does a study of Jewish life with detailed data on Yeshivish/Chasish households. If you want the truth go this and look for growth rate. Then we can see if the 3-4% NASI throws around is true
You can google it and look at the data
change the filtering settings. Hatzlacha.
the age gap people are ignorant in basic statistics and in denial that any other factors are contributing to the “crisis”
i agree let them show us some real data
I don’t have time to post about this but everyone who studied statistics on a collage level should be able to explain why this thing is misguided.
147 and Daneil Rosen, I think you are both wrong but DR is closer to being right.
All people must give tzidaka (charity), however masser (10%) is not an obligation but good hanhaga (maybe a minhag). if you are being supported i.e. taking tzidaka to live, then it is worth talking to a rabbi, because there are strong grounds not to give masser as well as other halachos related to money, such as shopping in a Jewish store even if it is more expensive.
there is a Jewish organiztion,the Jewish Stuttering Association, which holds suppport groups in New York and New Jersey for Jewish people who stutter. They can put you in touch with people who stutter who have successfully navigated shidduchim.
Contact The JSA
My two cents is that you let your speech define you as a person and therefore feel that you are not likeable.
Do you have maylois that other people do not have?
Would a girl rather marry a jerk who can talk without a problem (espicaly when he is being mean to her) or nice who who stutters?
You are a whole person with defects, like everyone else in the world.
Why are you focusing on one thing and letting it define you as person?
Why do you feel you are less worthy or less whole because you sometimes get stuck on words?
Who told you that is a sin?
BTW the vice president of the USA stutters. Many very succesful people stutter.
Go for whoever you want and see what happens. The worst that can happen is they will say “no”.If you don’t try you FOR SURE wont get “her”.
HATZLACHADecember 31, 2012 8:33 pm at 8:33 pm in reply to: Support from girl's parents in non-Litvish circles #916618
In most litvish circles if the girl has a job which makes enough money to cover the cost of living, that is sufficient. Also if she is in school for something which could cover the cost of living it is reasonable to assume you would only be asked to contribute until she starts working. Also if she has been working and has savings that can count also.
Finally, if you look beyond typical yeshivish families you might be able to find a serious ben torah who is prepared to move to an out of town kollel, which pays nicely, or family that might contribute to support.
I don’t get it,
there are a number of assumed facts floating around here that are presumed to have a connection
1.there are thousands of older single girls (the official number is 3000 between the ages of 25-40)
So the girls are at a clear disadvantage (even thought no one has any idea how many single guys there are but we will say less than 3000)
2. the guys and girls are in different envoirments(Yeshiva and secular workforce respectively)
so the girls don’t respect the guys(it seems to be assumed that a yeshivish type guy would both respect a girl who has adopted the conventions of secular society and would feel comfortable with her)
3. everyone is entitled to marry someone who is exactly what they are looking for.
I really think that #3 is the root of the shidduch crisis. but more on that later.
Hence we have 3000 girls looking for husbands among less than 3000 guys, many of whom are learning and the girls NO LONGER (many went to school to be able to support a husband who is learning) want a guy who is doing that because of XYZ.
so the assumed crisis has TWO parts. One which could be addressed easier than the other (that’s right: clone THE working ben torah who learns many hours a day and works in investment banking)
Now back to number two.
many of you assumed that because a girl is more polished or has a more defined accomplishment (they don’t give PHDs is yeshiva) or overpaid to have a few letters to put after her name, she will not respect a guy who is learning (seriously).
Is she looking for a co-worker or a husband?
I suspect that the two do not require the same skill set (unless you say that the decline in marriage and high unemployment are related- regardless employment is still way ahead – 92% vs 50%)
So IMHO if we do the old tired thing of focusing on what is important in a marriage we might have more shidduchim
I 2nd the above. Talk to a Rabbi who would be willing to tell you to share the info.October 16, 2012 6:47 am at 6:47 am in reply to: Sensitive infomation to be relayed reagarding shidduchim #899701
No one who thinks they are the voice of reason would tell you how to act without knowing the details.
try to find a well rounded wiseman who has a lot of common sense. and possibly a rabbi if it is an issue that ppl are hung up on.
HATZLACHAOctober 15, 2012 11:32 pm at 11:32 pm in reply to: Sensitive infomation to be relayed reagarding shidduchim #899699
AHH so the question is that one of your parents are a BT.
That is not the same as a major health issue. It is my impression that in many circles that is not an issue at all. In more heimish circles it is more of an issue.
It is fair to assume that anyone who is dating you knows about your background or, if they has wanted, could have found out with ease.
I would suggest mentioning it causally on the 4th or 5th date.
It is also worth talking over with a rabbinic figure.October 15, 2012 7:24 am at 7:24 am in reply to: Sensitive infomation to be relayed reagarding shidduchim #899691
#HF I will add that if you wait till 7 brachos (as TLKY suggests) you might ruin your relationship. Even if you stay married, your spouse might never fully trust you for the REST of you life/marriage.
This question is halachik. I am glad to share along with the many others here, but you need to find out the halacha.
much bracha and hatzlachaOctober 15, 2012 5:13 am at 5:13 am in reply to: Sensitive infomation to be relayed reagarding shidduchim #899690
#HF please talk to your rabbi. If you do not have one call a recognized adom gadol.
hatzlacha and mazal
All sex offenders are listed online in a state registry. There are sites and blogs which will make this info public. for example the awareness center.
Also if he was convicted of a sex crime there are legal limits to how close he can get to children esp his victims.
You might want to speak to a Rav before you talk to the authorities or post his info on blog. You do have resources.