Flattening Curve Wasnt Enough For New Zealand

New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is interviewed in her office at parliament in Wellington, Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2020. New Zealand this year pulled off a moonshot that remains the envy of almost every other nation: It eliminated the coronavirus. But the goal was driven as much by fear as it was ambition, Prime Minister Ardern revealed Wednesday in an interview with The Associated Press. She said the target grew from an early realization the nations health system simply couldnt cope with a big outbreak.(AP Photo/Sam James)

New Zealand this year pulled off a moonshot that remains the envy of most other nations: It eliminated the coronavirus.

But the goal was driven as much by fear as it was ambition, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern revealed Wednesday in an interview with The Associated Press. She said the target grew from an early realization the nations health system simply couldnt cope with a big outbreak.

And there have been plenty of bumps along the way. When a handful of unexplained cases began cropping up in August, Ardern found herself defending wildly exaggerated claims from President Donald Trump, who told crowds at rallies there was a massive resurgence and Its over for New Zealand. Everythings gone.

Was angry the word? Ardern said, reflecting on Trumps comments. She said while the new cases were deeply concerning, to be described in that way was a misrepresentation of New Zealands position.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

New Zealands response to the virus has been among the most successful, together with actions taken by China, Taiwan and Thailand early on in the pandemic. The country of 5 million has counted just 25 deaths and managed to stamp out the spread of COVID-19, allowing people to return to workplaces, schools and packed sports stadiums without restrictions.

When the virus began hitting Europe early in the year, Ardern said, the only two options countries were considering were herd immunity or flattening the curve. She opted for the latter.

Originally, thats where we started, because there just simply wasnt really much of a view that elimination was possible, she said.

But her thinking quickly changed.

I remember my chief science adviser bringing me a graph that showed me what flattening the curve would look like for New Zealand. And where our hospital and health capacity was. And the curve wasnt sitting under that line. So we knew that flattening the curve wasnt sufficient for us.

Ardern said she didnt worry that elimination might prove impossible, because even if New Zealand didnt get there, the approach still would have saved lives.

The alternative is to set a lesser goal, and then still misfire, she said.

Border closures and a strict lockdown in March got rid of the disease, and New Zealand went 102 days without any community spread. But then came the August outbreak in Auckland, which remains unexplained but likely originated abroad.

We thought we were through the worst of it. And so it was a real psychological blow for people. And I felt that, too. So it was very, very tough, Ardern said.

She said theyd modeled different outbreak scenarios but the one that eventuated was about the worst that you could even possibly imagine.

Thats because the outbreak had spread across multiple groups in densely populated areas, she said, and some who caught it had been attending large church gatherings. But after a second lockdown in Auckland, New Zealand again stamped out the disease.

Ardern said she felt confident about her responses despite sometimes feeling a touch of imposter syndrome in her role as a leader.

You just have to get on with it. Theres a job to be done, she said. Any self-doubt I ever have, just as a human being, doesnt mean that always translates into doubt around what needs to be done.

Two months after the second outbreak, Ardern faced an election campaign. She won a second term in a landslide, with her liberal Labour Party winning a majority of all votes, something that last happened in New Zealands multiparty system in 1951.

After watching President-elect Joe Biden win the U.S. election soon after, Ardern said shes hopeful of improving the relationship between the two nations.

She said her job is to build good relationships with every leader.

But theres no question that when some of your ideas and values are similar, thats an easier job to do, she said. And so thats the basis, I think, on which well be building the relationship with the new president.

Ardern said shes not afraid of sometimes taking a stance against a more aggressive China despite New Zealands reliance on Beijing as its largest trading partner.

My personal view is that were at a point where we can raise issues, Ardern said. Were fairly predictable in the fact that we do. And I think thats an important part of our independent foreign policy.

For the world to begin to return to normal, Ardern said, there needs to be comprehensive workaround ensuring that everybody can get vaccinated against COVID-19 and putting in place a vaccine certification process that would allow people to travel.

She does worry the economic impact of the virus is increasing wealth disparity, and that New Zealanders have defied earlier predictions by sending house prices to new all-time highs.

She said there is a psychology behind New Zealands financial obsession with housing that needs to be examined, otherwise we wont figure out how to move people back into other parts of the economy.

Ardern said she plans to take some time off over the Southern Hemisphere summer to spend time with her fiance, Clarke Gayford, and their 2-year-old daughter, Neve.

Im doing nothing, she said with a laugh. I will be by the sea, though. Itll be great.

(AP)

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