The race for New York City mayor appears all but sealed as Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani surges far ahead of a fractured and scandal-plagued field, according to a bombshell new poll released Tuesday.
Mamdani, the 33-year-old Queens assemblyman and Democratic Socialist standard-bearer, commands the support of 50% of likely voters, a staggering lead that dwarfs the combined totals of his closest opponents, including disgraced ex-Governor Andrew Cuomo, embattled incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, and perennial GOP firebrand Curtis Sliwa.
The poll, conducted by Zenith Research/Public Progress Solutions, paints a bleak picture for Mamdani’s rivals. Cuomo, attempting a political resurrection after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani in June, lags far behind at 22%. Sliwa trails at 13%, while Adams—still reeling from the fallout of a historic federal corruption case that nearly toppled his administration—manages just 7%.
Even hypothetical one-on-one matchups show Mamdani in a dominant position. In a head-to-head race against Cuomo, the socialist lawmaker would still win by a commanding 15-point margin, 55% to 40%. Against Adams, Mamdani’s lead widens to a staggering 27 points, 59% to 32%.
The numbers expose the deep vulnerabilities of Mamdani’s opponents. Roughly 60% of respondents say they would never vote for Cuomo under any circumstances, citing his past scandals and failed leadership. Adams fares even worse, with a crushing 68% of voters saying they will not support him—despite his desperate rebranding effort after ditching the Democratic Party in favor of an independent run.
The data also suggest that even if one of the major challengers dropped out, Mamdani would still cruise to victory. In a scenario where Cuomo exits the race, Mamdani captures 55%, with Sliwa rising to 16% and Adams inching up to 14%. If Adams bows out, Mamdani still secures 51%, while Cuomo gains only marginal ground at 25%.
The poll—conducted just over three months from Election Day—solidifies Mamdani’s status as the overwhelming front-runner in a mayoral contest that has defied political conventions and left New York’s old guard grasping for relevance.
With a base energized by progressive policies and a public increasingly disillusioned with establishment figures, Mamdani’s path to City Hall appears unobstructed, unless his fractured rivals can unite and stage a political miracle.
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7 Responses
Interesting that this doesn’t say anything about what a head to head matchup with only mamdani and Sliwa is polling at? All other matchups are mentioned, except a one on one with Sliwa…there are some who will never vote for Cuomo. Eliminating Cuomo and Adams from the equation may draw more voters to him vs mamdani
We need ALL the frum to gather around Sliwa, we cant tolerate the murderer Cuomo and the corrupt Adams.
I am waiting on who FJCC will endorse.
Israel will take over Gaza so NYC Jews will have where to go…
The article fails to point out a pretty important piece of information: Public Progress Solutions, which commissioned the poll, is headed by Amit Singh Bagga, who is an ally of Zohran Mamdani. So this poll is not believable. Sure, we should be vigilant, but this is the type of poll designed to discourage those who would vote against Mamdani by creating the impression that his victory is a done deal.
Additionally, there is literally no record of any other polls done by Zenith Research (except for the one in which they underestimated Mamdanis success in the primaries). So this is a non-entity commissioned by an ally of Zoran Mamdani to make him look good.
This fake poll will help Chomo win. This poll assures Mamdani’s supporters that he will will in a landslide , so why go out and vote for somebody that will anyway win.
We all remember Seltzers ( considered one of the best pollsters) presidential poll on Iowa several days before the election which gave Harris a 3 point lead. Trump ended up carrying the state by 15 points !!!
Let’s not forget the recent presidential polls which none of them gave Trump a chance. He ended up winning all swing states and the popular vote.
We just need Adams and Sliwa to get out of the way. People might not like Chomo but will vote for him to make sure Mamdani isn’t elected.