Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani has opened a commanding 21-point lead in New York City’s mayoral race, according to a new Marist University poll released Tuesday — cementing his position as the frontrunner just weeks before Election Day.
The 33-year-old Queens assemblyman captured 45 percent of likely voters in the four-way contest, compared to 24 percent for former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 17 percent for Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa and just 9 percent for incumbent Mayor Eric Adams. Five percent remain undecided.
Mamdani’s surge has been fueled by a dramatic shift among Black voters, who were largely with Cuomo during the June Democratic primary. In the general election, 47 percent now back Mamdani, compared to 26 percent for Cuomo, 11 percent for Adams and 5 percent for Sliwa.
Even if Adams were to drop out, Mamdani would still hold a double-digit edge, leading Cuomo 46 percent to 30 percent, with Sliwa at 18 percent. In a head-to-head matchup, Mamdani’s advantage narrows to 10 points — 49 percent to Cuomo’s 39 percent — as Sliwa voters shift toward the former governor.
The poll shows Mamdani’s dominance among young and progressive voters. Sixty-two percent of voters under 45 support him — a nearly 50-point advantage over Cuomo. Among very liberal voters, Mamdani commands an overwhelming 86 percent, while moderates break for Cuomo, 35 to 31 percent.
Sliwa maintains strength among conservatives, drawing 42 percent to Cuomo’s 24 percent, Adams’ 16 percent and Mamdani’s 14 percent. Still, Mamdani leads across every major demographic: he wins 51 percent of nonwhite voters overall, 39 percent of white voters, and a majority of Latinos at 52 percent. Jewish voters remain split between Mamdani and Cuomo at 35 percent each.
Mamdani also leads in every borough, including a 33-point edge in Brooklyn, the city’s largest.
Pollster Lee Miringoff, who directed the survey, said Mamdani’s momentum is reinforced by a clear likeability advantage. Fifty-two percent of likely voters view him favorably, compared to 40 percent unfavorably. Cuomo, meanwhile, is underwater at 39 percent favorable and 59 percent unfavorable. Adams fares worse, with 68 percent viewing him negatively, while Sliwa is at 51 percent unfavorable.
“Mamdani is running up the score,” Miringoff said. “It’s getting late early.”
Cuomo has tried to blunt Mamdani’s rise by hammering his opponent’s support for the anti-Israel movement. But the attacks have yet to peel away voters beyond a divided Jewish electorate.
Miringoff said Cuomo may need to highlight his progressive record to break into Mamdani’s stronghold with younger and liberal voters. With debates looming ahead of the Nov. 4 election, Cuomo and other rivals will have limited opportunities to alter the trajectory of the race.
Guardian Angels founder Sliwa has vowed to stay in despite calls from President Trump to step aside and consolidate opposition to Mamdani.
For now, a solid majority of New Yorkers — 63 percent — say they expect Mamdani to be the city’s next mayor.
(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)
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One Response
“Mamdani also leads in every borough, including a 33-point edge in Brooklyn, the city’s largest.“
I wonder who made this poll? Mamdani supporters? I don’t believe he’s leading in Staten Island