President Donald Trump�s declared this week that Russia is a �paper tiger�, reflecting newly surfaced U.S. intelligence suggesting the Kremlin faces deepening economic decline and mounting battlefield losses in Ukraine, the New York Post reported.
The president�s pronouncement � made Tuesday after his address to the United Nations General Assembly � is being characterized inside the administration as a deliberate tactic to squeeze Russian President Vladimir Putin into considering negotiations, even as Moscow continues to resist Western overtures.
In a Truth Social post following a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the UN summit, Trump argued that once Russian citizens �find out what is really going on with this war� economically, Ukraine would not only be able to reclaim its occupied territory but could �maybe even go further than that.�
Asked Wednesday if the president�s words were a �strategic move aimed at stirring up negotiations,� a senior White House official replied: �Yes, that is correct.� Another source close to the administration added: �It doesn�t signal any substantive policy change. It�s a clear and obvious negotiating tactic to push Russia.�
Zelensky and his top adviser Andriy Yermak both said that Trump is increasingly recognizing the limits of Moscow�s military power. �It�s our job � to speak, to consult, to repeat, to give the evidence, to exchange the information,� Yermak told reporters Tuesday. Zelensky went further, saying Putin�s claims of battlefield dominance were nothing more than �fairy tales.�
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia has advanced just 1,910 square kilometers inside Ukraine since May � while sustaining more than 130,000 killed and wounded, an �extremely heavy casualty rate.�
The Kremlin is also reeling from shrinking oil revenues and depleted reserves. Russian export earnings fell to $13.5 billion in August, down from $14.4 billion in July, according to the International Energy Agency. Overall, oil export revenue for the first eight months of 2025 was down 16 percent from the same period a year earlier.
On Wednesday, Russia�s Finance Ministry proposed raising the value-added tax from 20 percent to 22 percent and slashed its economic growth forecast to 1 percent � a sharp drop from 4.3 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries have triggered gas shortages inside Russia.
�As his economy becomes pressurized, [Putin] has to pick between paying for the war machine or paying for the people who have given him a solid majority in his country,� Mark Montgomery, a retired Navy rear admiral and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said.
Trump�s rhetoric was reinforced by senior administration officials. �The president is making it very clear that Russia is in a very weak position,� White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News on Tuesday night. �They are a massive country with a massive military. They are a war economy. But it�s been three-and-a-half years and look at how Ukraine has been able to defend itself.�
Vice President JD Vance echoed the point Wednesday: �It�s not a shift in position. It�s an acknowledgement of the reality on the ground.�
For now, however, Putin has shown no sign of entertaining peace talks � even as Trump doubles down on his effort to project U.S. confidence in Ukraine�s ability to prevail.
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