With summer approaching and police patrols thinner than they were a year ago, riders on New York City’s subway system are growing uneasy — and crime data suggest they have reason to be.

Robberies on trains and buses are up 21% this year, with 128 muggings recorded through April 5 compared to 106 at the same point in 2024. Misdemeanor assaults have risen 12%, transit murders have gone from zero to three, and felony assaults — already 60% above pre-pandemic levels — do not yet reflect three separate machete attacks on riders on Saturday.

The backdrop to those numbers is a patrol rollback. Under former Mayor Eric Adams, the NYPD deployed 300 extra officers for overnight train duty beginning in January 2025, specifically targeting late-night shifts with two officers per car. Crime fell. Then, in February, the Mamdani administration cut overtime funding and reduced those patrols.

Mayor Mamdani had campaigned in part on shrinking the NYPD budget, including shuttering its Strategic Response Group. Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch pointed last week to a 5.3% overall drop in citywide crime and a 1.3% decline in subway crime as of March 29 — figures the administration has highlighted as evidence the system remains on track.

But former NYPD Detective Michael Alcazar, who now teaches at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, told the NY Post the patrol reduction has created openings that criminals are already exploiting. “They can almost predict where police are going to be and they’re timing it,” he said. “I think robberies are going to increase because there’s going to be more riders and more bad guys, especially in the subway.”

The NYPD notes that 34% of subway robberies so far this year were committed by juveniles, and that 63% have led to arrests. Officials also point out that the current robbery total is only marginally above 2019 levels, and that last year’s figures reflected an all-time low, making the year-over-year comparison unusually stark.

Still, Alcazar said the city cannot afford to wait. “We need to have an omnipresence,” he said. “Summer is coming.”

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)