Israel’s defense establishment estimates that the US has reached a point of no return regarding the possibility of a strike on Iran, Walla reported on Wednesday.

Maariv reported on Wednesday that Israeli defense officials estimate that the first strike may occur on Thursday afternoon, following the conclusion of [Indian Prime Minister] Modi’s visit to Israel and the meeting between US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

A senior reserve officer familiar with regional developments told Walla, “The chances that the U.S. won’t attack are decreasing by the hour. The question is when the first strike will occur, what form it will take, and how extensive it will be.”

He added that Washington must consider more than Iran’s air-defense systems. “The U.S. has to factor in a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on its interests and allies in the Middle East, and—if unrest breaks out inside Iran—it’s reasonable to assume Trump would try to assist protesters by targeting Basij forces and internal security mechanisms.”

In recent days, the IDF General Staff drilled a scenario involving an Iranian response against Israel. The exercise included attacks on the Israeli home front using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Security officials also assume Iran would attempt to activate all its regional proxies — in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon — in a coordinated assault.

To prepare, the Air Force, Military Intelligence Directorate and Planning Directorate have intensified coordination, focusing on air-space monitoring, threat detection, and warning systems.

Home Front Command officials estimate that senior leaders—the prime minister, defense minister, and IDF chief of staff — would receive only very short notice before a US strike, while the general public would be warned only if missiles were actually launched toward Israeli territory.

Meanwhile, criticism has emerged regarding US assessments of Iran’s leadership. Similar to the intelligence failure to fully grasp Hamas’s religious motivations before October 7, it is believed that US analysts underestimated the ideological commitment instilled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei among Iran’s leadership. This gap is reflected in Iran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear program and its rejection of talks on ballistic missiles or support for militant groups in the Middle East.

The discussion follows comments by US envoy Steve Witkoff, who questioned how the ayatollah regime has not yet capitulated despite the large-scale U.S. military buildup surrounding Iran in preparation for a possible war.

(YWN Israel Desk—Jerusalem)