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Popa, you’re good at running numbers. If there are 105 boys to 100 girls, and a 3% annual pop growth, how many boys and girls are there that match up if we assume a three year gap?
Also, a difference of 5 out of a total of 205 children is what percent?
Popa, I don’t have time right now for a full response (as your thoughtful post deserves), but I am working with the assumption that the numbers of point 1 don’t come close to nullifying the disparity, so I don’t think we’re shifting the problem to a different group, we’re addressing an internal numbers issue.
But your hashkafic point would make for an interesting discussion on its own.
And, yes, I am curious, and think it would be of some benefit, but it’s subject to cost/benefit analysis, and not knowing the cost, I’m in no position to j’accuse j’anyone of j’anything.
@yitzchokm, Yes, he might have pulled a muscle laughing so hard at the people who believed his tale.
It’s already too late.
Lol at the bit of being concerned for the safety of your family ‘cuz you heard rustling pork rinds.
I didn’t dismiss them as irrelevant, I dismissed them as not being valid reasons to not close the age gap. And you didn’t answer that. If you conduct dialogue by talking down to your counterparts without actually addressing the points they bring up, as you do with me, you should continue to expect the reaction you have gotten from the people involved. They’ll continue to ignore you.
Sorry; let’s take it point by point, if you wish.
This reminds me of the baby-in-the-shopping-cart thread.
BTW, there have been advertising campaigns/kol korehs against young men driving in the Catskills, because of so many accidents, r”l. I would not want my children doing so until they were older and more mature.
Syag, I agree with your overall approach that we can’t stifle kids. I’m very much in favor of kids (and even adults) playing baseball, basketball, touch football, soccer, etc. It’s specifically tackle football which I don’t like because of the high rate of injury.
I don’t really think using statistics of former NFL players’ chronic injuries (which is absolutely staggering) is fair, because they played a whole lot more and were subject to constant pounding and repeated concussions. I still think the injury rate is too high to be worth the risk. There are other outlets (and I agree that they are very much needed).
Popa, you agree that it’s probable. I think it’s probable to the point of not reasonable to assume otherwise.
Squeak, let’s analyze.
1) Extra boys born – unreasonable to assume enough to counterbalance.
2) extra boys dying – all the more reason to put more boys in the parsha.
3) extra boys going otd – ditto
4) extra girls becoming frum – ditto
5) extra girls buying into the torah only philosophy – ditto (for Torah only boys)
6) chassidishe girls crossing over – ditto
7) boys who are not torah only material being overlooked – ditto (for Torah only boys)
8) etc. The list doesn’t end there – can’t answer.
Most of the items on your list are alternatives to explain why we see more older female singles than males, but don’t give me any reason to think the problem wouldn’t be alleviated by closing the gap.
Thanks for your response.
You think that the only reason I think there are more girls than boys is because of lists and dress size requirements and silent phones and maybe even support requirements, but it isn’t. I will freely admit that until I chapped age gap/pop growth (which was before NASI existed), I would very likely have chalked those things up to illusion based on how the system works. That part is reasonable enough that I wouldn’t be satisfued without a study.
But I haven’t yet heard, not from you, not from squeak, not from ubiquitin, or anybody else, a reasonable explanation as to how we wouldn’t have more girls than boys considering the fact that we clearly have an age gap and population growth (nor a reasonable denial of either of those two facts).
I agree with DaMoshe. Chaza”l telling us that the mizbayach cries is to stress to us the importance of working hard to keep intact a marriage which has the potential to work.
However, if it’s not going to be a functional marriage, as sad as it is, a get is necessary.
Famously, R Chaim didn’t hold like you.
But, of course, it’s quite beneficial to anonymously level unsubstantiated accusations in a public forum.
I am not affiliated with NASI, Rechnitz or anyone else involved. I am just having a discussion here. From what I see, there would be little benefit to a more comprehensive study and statistical analysis (though it might be nice), and I have no idea how difficult or expensive it would be, or if it’s even feasible. I cannot think of a reasonable explanation for how there wouldn’t be a demographic benefit to closing the age gap (nor a reasonable way of hypothesizing that there isn’t one).
You’re essentially saying, “I do know, but I’m not telling you”. Maybe you’re even correct, but it’s just no way to have a dialog, and certainly no way to get me to change my position.
It shouldn’t be played in pads and helmets either.
I don’t know about being dan l’kaf z’chus, but definitely agree about bringing closer to Torah with love when possible.
Shalom,
????? ?? ??????? ??? ???? ? ???????
She didn’t earn enough money to support my drug habit.
Or he has the same sense of humor.
So you’re also copping out on me.
In case you would say that, I added the Maharsha who says it’s a matter of numbers of lavin vs. esin.
I don’t really think you need that, though; I think he is a tzaddik in its meaning of one who does k’shuras hadin.
(It should be noted that the gemara is referring to all mitzvos, not just learning.)
1) See Tosafos in Eiruvin, and Maharsha in Makkos (23b). It is ??? for righteous individuals, so the gemara in Berachos seems to be saying that shelo lishma does not put someone in this category, but Tosafos asks that the gemaros praising even shelo lishma indicate that it would. This answers point 2 as well.
I’ll try bl”n to get to point 3 later.
Dr. Schick wrote the OTD rate is remarkably negligible.
Let’s not forget that the AviChai study is not geared toward analyzing the shidduch calamity; it’s to study Jewish education. What he may consider insignificant regarding the latter might be relevant to the former.
I have no idea if there are more older female singles in Modern Orthodox communities than older single males, and I am not meshubad to AZ’s opinion.
It is chillul Shabbos because it violates at least two melachos (probably d’rabanan) AND because it is zilzul Shabbos.
I actually have a hard time believing that they are serious about it (or at least that they had any semi competent halachic expert look at it) because the reasoning is so backwards.
There’s a theory which says that this is an effort to poke fun at left wing “orthodox” reformers, and although I doubt it, I can’t dismiss it entirely.
DY are you crazy?
If I answered that, people would know who I am.
There are so many non humorous explanations.
Let’s hear.
It MIGHT (I am no expert in hilchos shabbos) not be in conflict with the shamor aspect of shabbos
It is. The halachic “reasoning” behind it would make for nice Purim Torah.
That having been said (and this might be what ivory meant to ask), the melachos involved are probably considered d’rabanan according to most poskim.
You. And I just pointed out your inconsistency.
Gavra, thanks and thanks. I think my remaining point to you would be that if we overemphasize the technical issurim here, we risk having the ability to decry something which has no technical issur.
So, we do as The Chazon Ish and Rav Schechter say; we leave it to the gedolei haposkim of our dor. Only in this case, even before having seen the opinion of any poskim, it was blatantly obvious, at least to me, that this is a case of zilzul Shabbos.
What does he have to do with this?
Okay, squeak and popa, let’s hear your ideas of what would constitute a valid study, and how to conduct it.
As far as I’m concerned, especially since I am not advocating and never have (IIRC) advocated any changes which are not anyhow positive, I am willing to assume that there are no reasonable explanations for how age gap is not a major contributor to the problem. If there were, squeak wouldn’t have to suggest humorous ones.
And popa, who says there’s a crisis for the MO? Any hard data?
DY. Another problem with the Age Gap Theory is that it does not account for the fact that the population has been growing for three generations and the norm has always been for boys to marry younger girls, just ask your parents and grand parents.
This is not a problem with age gap theory, it’s a problem with your assumptions. This has been addressed numerous times, I can link to the discussions in the cr if you’d like, but first tell me: which time period (decades) are you referring to?
Data regarding age difference among couples is needed too. Has that been addressed anywhere?
Some data hungry people are addressing it, but it should be noted that the typical age at which boys start dating is clearly a few years older than the age girls start dating
And of course as explained elsewhere the Age Gap TM while it MAY explain the shiduch crises it in no way explains why many girls arent even getting dates aka the dating divide TM)
So why aren’t the boys dateless?
And saying “in no way” is unfair, because you know that your point has been addressed, your refusal to accept a valid answer not withstanding.
We cannot use school enrollment data because it ignores that people move between communities, as well as do schools.
The study claims to include all schools, so your first point is irrelevant. Not sure what your second point is.
But what is that typical distribution?
my guess, a little heavier on the younger side.
and very possibly there were people at the time of Chazal who said exactly that.
How did Chaza”l deal with them, by pandering to them?
If you noticed, I have argued against this in on a technical basis as well, but I almost see the bigger issue as fighting the errant and dangerous notion that Yiddishkeit and halachah is all about the technical. It is not.
So while you read my post and saw the humor in it (which I appreciate), on some level, I was being serious as well.
Squeak, nice job fighting what you consider anecdotal with what is definitely anecdotal.
Eftachbchinor: Froggie was thinking of others, not himself.
(This post has been victimized by the -1 years glitch.)
ABS-SA, in theory, otd might cause the same phenomenon being attributed to age gap. But age gap + population growth (unless mitigated by other factors) would definitely cause a disparity.
If we have two causes, shouldn’t both be addressed, if possible?
Lior, both.
Popa, I assume there there is a typical pattern of distribution – my guess, a little heavier on the younger side. Kol zeh hichnasti when I said “typical”.
Lior, as population growth rates increase, the problem gets worse. The dire numbers are mostly predictions. I will tell you, though, that I know a whole lot more really good eligible women than men.
It should be noted also that if we assume, say, a 10% disparity, it does not mean that 10% of women will never marry, it just means that at any given time, 10% will be unmarried. Many divorced men marry never previously married women.
Popa, the women are generally between 20-40.
I dont think we should use the numbers from 9-12, because the lower numbers in 12 are probably in some significant part due to leaving high school early.
If you use the numbers from early elementary, I think the disparity is a more reasonable sounding 16%.
Popa, no, but l’shitascha, nothing should be considered preposterous without hard data disproving it.
Not sure he has time for a Caller…
Popa, you are brilliant, but I was doing other calculations at the time.
Nice cheshbon, except that childbearing years are pretty constant, there isn’t that much variation, and that’s why I put the word “typical” into my question.
Similar to your cheshbon, if left over girls are based on average age gap, can we fix the entire shidduch calamity by having one newborn baby boy marry a one hundred year old lady?
95, Mr, Rechnitz actually quoted a shadchan who said 15% was generous.
Mazel Tov! May you be zoche to a bayus ne’eman, and see doros of ehrliche Yidden.
Popa has indicated that he has multiple doctorates (one if them is not in statistics).
Statistician Dr. Charlie Hall's analysis of the marital age gap data
What are they? Do they give doctorates in trolling? In pizza?
My doctorates are not in statistics
And it shows.
Ok, so I’ll rephrase (this is what I meant anyhow):
My question is: what would be the typical annual population growth by percentage for a four children average, or for a five children average?
The relevant paragraph and footnote regarding gender disparity:
? Every other year, the U.S. Department of Education conducts a survey of private school enrollment. As this report was being completed, I came across the most recent Federal survey, for the 2011-12 school year. It shows that male enrollment is greater than female enrollment throughout the privateschool sector. Because the gender gap issue is intriguing, I am planning a separate examination of this issue after the census report has been published.
zahavasdad – Is there any reason to think that E-Books wouldn’t be at a minimum Kesivas Arayi?
Well, couldn’t one respond, “The problem is that even though that would work for Yeraim, there are many Orthodox Jews (of all sects) who, while willing to follow the letter of the law, do not feel that a Geder created out of thin air due to issues of Ksav She’eino Miskayem should or will apply to them.”?
Gavra, no thanks, I’ll stick to the yeraim. There are also those who aren’t nispoel from the issur k’siva (such as the developer of the app, if this is for real), but zilzul Shabbos is very real.
If it were only zilzul, I would say so (and insist that it’s still very much assur), but it happens to not be.
Re: Tzitz Eliezer, see the part where he quotes the Sh’eilas Yaakov, especially the end of the S”Y’s teshuvah.
Gavra, the Chazon Ish (top of the page) is hard to read on hebrewbooks, so I’ll quote (I have the sefer in front of me) – he refuted the tayna of an umbrella being ohel, says it might be tikun mana, then says:
??? ????? ????? ??? ????? ?? ????? ???? ????? ????, ???? ???? ???? ???? ????? ??? ????, ???? ???? ???? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ?????, ??? ???? ???? ?????? ???? ?????, ?? ?? ??? ??? ???? ???????
I think we can agree that R’ Shmuel Auerbach shlit”a is correct that he would say the same about use of cell phones (transporting it for the alarm clock function) and that kol shekein v’kol shekein for texting, even if there were a way to get around koseiv and tikun mana.
that horse has left the barn quite a while back
Should that change my approach or yours?