Turner Poised For Huge Upset In Race For NY-9

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Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York’s 9th Congressional District. He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided.

Turner’s winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He’s ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he’s winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him.  It’s a given that Republicans don’t like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he’s below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.

Beyond Obama’s weakness, Turner has actually proven to be a pretty strong candidate.  45% of voters rate him favorably to 30% with a negative opinion.  Independents give him good marks by a 56/17 spread and he has better than normal numbers across party lines with 29% of Democrats expressing a positive view of him to just 43% with an unfavorable one.

Weprin has been much maligned as a candidate but he actually has positive favorability numbers too with 39% of voters rating him positively and 36% negatively.  Over the last few years there have been very few races we polled where a candidate had a postive net favorability spread and still lost.  If Obama’s approval in the district was even 40% Weprin would almost definitely be headed to Congress. He’s getting dragged down by something bigger than himself.

The issue of Israel does appear to be having a major impact on this race.  A plurality of voters- 37%- said that Israel was ‘very important’ in determining their votes. Turner is winning those folks by an amazing 71-22 margin. With everyone who doesn’t say Israel is a very important issue for them Weprin actually leads 52-36. Turner is in fact winning the Jewish vote by a 56-39 margin, very unusual for a Republican candidate.  This seems to be rooted in deep unhappiness with Obama on this issue- only 30% of voters overall approve of how he’s handling Israel to 54% who disapprove and with Jewish voters his approval on Israel is 22% with 68 of voters disapproving. That has a lot to do with why Turner’s in such a strong position.

The only reason this election is being held in the first place is because Anthony Weiner had to resign and voters in the district are very down on him.  Only 29% have a positive opinion of their former Congressman to 53% with a negative one.  That can’t help his party’s prospects for keeping the seat either.

One final note on the poll and what perhaps should concern Democrats most of all. 55% of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district.  Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didn’t show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year.  When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we’ll be fine.  But there is no enthusiasm gap here.  Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008.  But only 65% of them are voting Democratic.  That’s a really big cause for concern.

(Source: Public Policy Polling)


10 COMMENTS

  1. Ad nauseum let me repeat these facts. If Turner wins his seat within a year gets taken over by a larger district headed by Gary Ackerman who is a super ultra liberal who is so pro Obama that he agrees with all anti Israel ideas Obama wants to implement. So Yidden, we are shooting ourselves in the foot literally and also turning our back on a fellow Jew who has given alot to our community for 20 years (whether or not you thought his toeva vote was wrong, the loshon hora coming from our camp against this man is a shanda, especially before the Yomim Noraim.) Please think carefully when you vote Tuesday and vote for Weprin!

  2. 1. It’s only for a half-term in a district that will probably not exist in any form next election.

    2. It is irrelvant whether the issue was economics, or foreign affairs, or gay rights. The important thing is that a big bunch of New Yorks finally voted against the city’s left-wing establishment in numbers that made a solid blue district into a “purple” district.

    3. For the first time since the “merger” over 100 years ago, New York will finally be on the verge of a two-party system. Turner will be a footnote. The big news is that we finally will be taken seriously, not just in that district, but in every district. And not just frum Jews, but a wide range of socially conservative ethnics whom the Democrats have assume will vote Democratic regardless.

  3. Jakyweb is SO WRONG!!!
    ONLY if Weprin wins will this district be lost. If Turner wins it is not so certain because there will then be a partisan angle which will bury the Democratic party in the media. They will just get rid of another district.
    The only shanda is Weprin the “wolf in sheep’s clothing”.
    …and Jakyweb ask the Rabbonim and Roshei Yeshiva who signed a “Kol Koreh” against Weprin if this is Loshen Hora. It obviously is not.
    A decent goy is far better than an over-compromising yid.
    Why did Weprin have to wear a yarmulka in the Gay Pride parade when he doesn’t wear one in the Assembly?

  4. #1 I guess you feel all of the rabbinim (including Rav Shmuel Kamenetsky the chairman of the Chofetz Chaim Heritage foFoundation) who wrote strongly against Weprin don’t know or don’t follow hilchos loshon hora.
    When the Chofetz Chaim came out agains a certain official rabbi in Vilna he was also accused of speaking Lashon Hora.
    Anyone who studied the laws of loshon hora knows why they don’t apply here.
    But saying “our camp” speaks lashon harah, when you know this includes Rabbonim, is indefensible.

  5. jakeyweb, no you are not repeating a fact , you are manufacturing one. if TURNER wins his seat STAYS! the republicans currently control the house of representatives and therefore control the gerrymandering process. it is only if mushchas boy weprin wins that the seat actually dissappeares making a vote for weprin a waste besides a vote for anti torah values. please if you support weprin that’s your call but try to stick to the truth. additionally there is no loshon hora in reporting that the man voted for toeva
    1)its a public vote, available for all to see
    2)he himself publically says he voted for it
    3)lokk in the end of sefer chafetz chaim, when dealing with issues of someone who has relaxed standards on arayos the heter to speak loshon hora is much greater
    4)it is complete toeles to make people aware of who the man is so as to allow them to make an informed decision as to whether or not to vote for the man

  6. Allow me to reiterate a conversation I had personally with candidate Weprin a week ago Motzei shabbos when he was campaigning near a kosher pizza store:

    me – “David, I understand that maybe you felt you had to vote for gay marriage because that’s what your constituency wanted. But did you have to march in their parade?:

    Weprin: “well, I feel that this is a civil rights issue, and that the same people who don’t want gays to have certain rights can turn around and attack Orthodox Jews”

    What I regret not saying to him is that those same people who support all the gay rights legislation are the same liberals (many, of course, who are Jewish) who bemoan “the poor Palestineans” and who blame Israel for every possible wrong in the world.

  7. jakyweb; we are Jews and proud of it. We believe even if a sword is on your neck you don’t give up; you daven and beg for Hashem’s help. Even if it is for 1 year it is better to have Turner and let other people like Weprin know we are not in his pocket because he is an “orthodox” Jew. Maybe he will still be in the 9 in 2 years time because things change around especially if we get rid of Carter; excuse me obama

  8. jakyweb:

    If the dems win they already have slated this area for elimination. If Turner wins the seat stays. NY loses 2 seats and with the state split (Assembly by dems and Senate by Repubs) each one gets to choose one seat to eliminate. And IF turner wins according to CrainsNY if Turner wins the GOP will demand a super jewish district in NY-9 giving us yiddim more say, Weprin winning gives us less say.

    And what help has Weprin done, He gave us two property tax hikes of 18 and 7 percents, more tax on small businesses and when he gave money to tzedakas he demanded kick-backs and those that refused were denied money.

    And You obviously don’t know what Loshan Horah is. Read Sefer Chofetz Chaim, If it is true and critical to aid someone in making a decision and the information is relevant it is not Loshon Horah.
    But of course what do you expect from someone who supports a Kofer who supports spitting on our Torah, Wants orthodox rabbanim to do gay marriages and intermarriages (http://www.cityhallnews.com/2011/08/weprin-faces-backlash-in-orthodox-community/)
    Supports all abortions and hates our torah.
    Of course his paid activists like your self don’t know Halacha, just like your kofer candidate