As Labor Day approaches and the 2024 presidential campaign enters its final stretch, FiveThirtyEight founder and elections analyst Nate Silver says that former President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming election. According to Silver’s updated model, Trump has a 52.4% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris has a 47.3% chance, marking Trump as the favored candidate for the first time since August 3.

Silver attributed Trump’s advantage largely to the state of Pennsylvania, which he described as “the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time” in his model. He noted that recent polls have not shown Harris leading in Pennsylvania, including two new polls released Thursday. “It’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading in Pennsylvania,” Silver said.

The model also accounts for a “convention bounce adjustment” in Harris’s numbers, recognizing that her recent boost in national polls is partly due to the Democratic National Convention. Silver explained that while Harris’s numbers may have improved post-convention, the model anticipates that some of this “bounce” will diminish over time. He added that if Harris’s polling figures remain steady in the coming weeks, the model will adjust accordingly.

Silver further elaborated on the challenges facing Harris, specifically stressing that the lack of recent polls showing her ahead in Pennsylvania poses a significant concern. “If she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November,” he noted.

Despite the current model’s lean towards Trump, Silver acknowledged that the race remains dynamic and subject to change as the election draws nearer.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)