New York City should prepare for a winter that’s snowier than last year but still falls short of historical averages, according to a new AccuWeather forecast. The report projects between 17 and 21 inches of snow for the season — up from less than 13 inches last year but well below the city’s long-term average of 29.8 inches.

The private weather company’s lead long-range meteorologist, Paul Pastelok, said a storm pattern forming over western Canada could deliver the city’s first significant snowfall in December. He warned that multiple systems may develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast, delivering bursts of snow and rain to the region through early winter.

“In December, we think there’s going to be some systems coming out of western Canada and diving into the middle of the country, then coming along the Mid-Atlantic coast,” Pastelok said. “Our forecast numbers for New York City are conservative right now, but we’re still watching out for the potential for it to be a higher-impact season.”

The forecast comes as city agencies brace for a winter that could strain sanitation and transportation operations. Even modest snow years can trigger costly overtime and logistical challenges, particularly when storms bring mixed precipitation rather than consistent snowfall. City Hall officials say fluctuating conditions — including rain-to-snow transitions and potential flash freezes — are often more disruptive than a single large storm, complicating road treatment and transit coordination.

While the overall snowfall total is expected to remain below average, the AccuWeather report warns that February could bring a sharp temperature drop across the East Coast. Pastelok predicted an “intense cold blast” moving from the Midwest toward New York in early February, raising the likelihood of additional winter storms and potential travel disruptions.

“So February looks a little bit colder, and we could start to see some more storms come out from the southwest direction,” he said. “Whether it still ends up being a mix between rain and snow is the concern — we could see some travel problems.”

For now, city planners are taking note. The Department of Sanitation is expected to maintain its standard 24-hour snow readiness posture beginning November 15, while the Metropolitan Transportation Authority continues testing anti-icing systems on bus routes and rail switches. Officials say early coordination could be crucial in a year defined less by blizzards and more by unpredictable, hard-to-manage weather swings.

Still, forecasters caution against complacency. “Last winter may have been quiet, but that doesn’t mean we’re in the clear,” Pastelok said. “All it takes is one well-timed storm to make an entire season feel a lot snowier.”

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)