Always_Ask_Questions

It seems from some Gemoras that any kind of segulohs or stam requests from Hashem might be considered after you did hishtadlus. A person who asks for segulah for parnasa but does not send resumes out is challenging Hashem.

A question from my first class in statistics:
you ask two people on the street whether bus N5 goes on this street. One says – yes, one says – no. What is the probability that the bus goes there: A. 50%. B > 50%. C <50%.

A variation: same question about seeing a unicorn.

Gadol, work (with your head) for 8 hours, then learn for 10 hours (or other way around) then you should sleep well for the remaining 6.

Israeli issues are indeed harder.
Demai is a concept that makes certain assumptions about how Amei Haaretz behave and, at least, take
it to MidRabanan level where oter kulos are available. Are any similar concepts used in modern Israeli practice? Did it change over time? After all, a median agricultural worker in 1950s was an anti-religious kibutznik who would “bite like a horse” while now a median food worker (not including machines) is a traditional Marokai, who may not be up-and-up on all Ashkenazi minhagim and humros but respects religion and knows basics. At worst, he might add some rice into kneidlach.

I found a partial answer to the question I was curious about – does it matter whether you just spent 15 minutes with a sick person or whether you were sitting in the same unventilated room for hours? The paper below gives a clue:

among admitted to the hospital in 2020, chances of death was 5x higher for those with high viral load at admission v. those with low – about same as difference between 30 y.o and 65 y.o.

Of course, viral load may be a factor of how disease is progressing. They have another clue – how viral load changed during first weeks of pandemic in 2020, when people became aware and started practicing SD. Low viral load went from 30% of cases to 70% in one month. So, seems like level of exposure is important.

SARS-CoV-2 infection: Initial viral load (iVL) predicts severity of illness/outcome, and declining trend of iVL in hospitalized patients corresponds with slowing of the pandemic
Said El Zein, Sep 2021 PLOS

ujm > forced to pay for medical expenses resulting from obesity.

also, I do not know whether you are working for Feds or a college, but most private insurances have now huge copays and deductibles, so yes obese pay more, unless they are very poor. I am not sure what is the case with Covid. At some point government was paying it all, I think, and it seems to make sense if we want people to go get help, but maybe it will be also productive to make them look at the cost side also.

crazy horse > The point here is critical thinking

agree 100%. The problem seems to be that sheker, like a virus, has 100 opportunities to attack and only one needs to work to get inside the person’s mind and heart. Some fall for some Kennedy, others for a radio personalities, etc. Maybe our way is to hold tight by whatever EMES is out there. It is generally difference between Yiddishkeit and science. Torah starts with known truths and then we use logical and other tools to extend this truth to new problems. Science generally goes towards truth and looking back consists of a lot of sheker.

So, in the vaccine example, there are some simple truths that can be evaluated post factum. They may not always answer today’s question, but helps to see back what is correct. some ideas:

– excess death statistics, reliable for many countries. Funeral houses do not pad numbers. They show how many extra people passed away, subtract drugs, altzheimers and you get your stats. For more research: subdivide by age, county, vaccination levels, and you have your reliable statistics and answers to people who say “covid is flu”, etc

– total number of people in ICUs. These numbers do not depend on how people test, what takes them to hospitals. They show how many extra people are in critical condition at this point of time.

if you think there are problems wit these numbers, let me know.
maybe there are other reliable statistics if we think more about them. These should be the first line of discussion, if people want to make their minds straight. I don’t see hope in discussing various claims quoted around. When presented with a counter-argument, most of them do not reply like R Yohanan, they just go to another claim.

Rambam contradicts himself. He says 8 hours and wake up with sunrise, but he also says in halakhos deah, I think, that one should learn both day and night, a this is different type of learning. During summer, both are impossible. So, one advise is to maximize health, another – learning.

As different people need different amount of sleep and at different periods of their life, you should experiment: go to sleep at same time daily and wake up without alarm clock. In 1-2 weeks, you’ll stabilize at the hours of sleep that you need.

If you sleep less, you may be forgetting your learning. Basic experiments with mice show that: show a mice a new box, it will go explore it on the first day and ignore on the second as a known object. If you disturb sleep, it explores the box on the second day forgetting what it saw a day before.

There is research comparing pairs of nearby US cities, one at the west end of one time zone, next – at the beginning of the other. One of them gets more sleep, almost an hour on average, also has 10+ on IQ and $10K on income. Whether sleep makes them smarter/richer, or whether smrt/rich people choose to sleep more, it is a good example to emulate. Hope I did not offend anyone on the western side.

Also, try not to get up during deep sleep. Fitbit and similar can measure your deep sleep cycle, usually every 1.5 hours. Teenagers especially should sleep more in the morning. Explain it (respectfully!) to your parents and teachers and tell them you’ll learn better that way. And actually do that.

Gadol > Dems have –and continue to–misstate the purpose and efficacy

I’ll take your word for that. I don’t use Dem party for medical information. Next, you’ll be asking CNN for psak halakha. I think Phase 3 results were pretty clear on chance on getting infected: 95%, or 20x reduction 2 weeks after vaccination and seemingly was all over the news.

what changed from then?
– decreasing efficiency over time. this was as expected
– vaccinated can still infect others, to lesser degree. this was seemingly unknown.
– variants decrease efficiency, as expected.
– 2 doses were given too close to each other (3-4 weeks), decreasing long-term effectiveness
– T-cell immunity (completely unknown after Phase 3) holds against severe disease even against variants.
– most of population does not understand statistics and listen to pundits. As expected, but still jarring.

ujm > Is it not okay to tell people that “Hechsher X” I do not consider reliable?

good question. Same goes for shidduch and job applicants. I am thinking that if the listener respects your integrity and you actually have it, then it might be enough to say “don’t deal with X”, no need to share details. On the other hand, when you are advising someone who can’t rely on your personal integrity, you would need to help him with facts that can help him make a judgment. I think, we are mostly in the second reality in an online group. When someone here says that something “aint frum”, I can generally guess whether it means selling treif or not following the latest humrah, or has kippah srugah on premises, based on the poster, but more specificity would be helpful.

hello99 is a little more specific and eems to know something, but I don’t know you enough to judge. What is lack of integrity – koshering questionable treif to save money, dealing with evil zionists, relying on phone calls instead of visiting – my mind creates more scenarios than I like. I could even decide that if a low-integrity director left, maybe the place was better than the director?

“Explain yourself”, to quote the Caterpillar.

Well, Britain may got her own medicine – being a remote part of a mega-state is not attractive. Maybe the Queen can apologize on behalf of George III.

I think Torah is Mayim Chayim, not sure if bottled water, cut from the source, qualifies. Maybe Divrei Tirah designed to achieve a pre-ordained conclusion rather than to honestly discuss a topic is “bottled Torah”.

interesting, and even as Eliahu was chief rabbi (sic!) of Chelm, this does not sound like a joke!

He lived a short life born after and died before Maharal, there is 1630 book assigning Golem and “old synagogue” stories to him. Chacham Tzvi, Yaakov Emden are his descendants.

I don’t see references to him being in Prague, but I also don’t see references that he was not (sorry for using Chelm style!)

For further confusion, there was another Eliyahu Bal Shem _Loanz_ who was born at a similar time and actually was Maharal’s student. So, maybe this is how golem was transferred – through confused references to two Bal Shems?

ujm, sorry, I skipped that you are discussing therapists specifically. It is not just the nature of the session, but also developing a close relationship.

from the same book:
a woman who visits a therapist may not rely on the heter of Baaloh B’ir, since she develops a close relationship with the therapist and he is considered a Libo Gas Boh (Nitei Gavriel 36:3).

> Rebbe Meir is enough of a source, being a tanna
haver wife’s honor same as havero, so maybe she is also a tanna :)?

> As the drishah famously writes, exceptional women can learn gemara,
Drisha indeed had a proof – his own mother (order of candlelighting on yom tov)

> she didn’t put herself into a nisayon
I mean that she put herself into the nisayon by her learning. I think “daatan kalos” is a mida of being able to do/consider multiple things at the same time, not only/necessarily a put-down. As mentioned, she was learning from multiple teachers.

> rebbe Meir may have initiated it, but it was min hashomayim
min hasomayim is never an excuse for someone’s actions, of course.

amom > So everyone sticks to their beliefs.

this is indeed a sad case and information is very confusing, although a lot of things that can be supported by data and there are a lot of opinions that are clearly based on wrong information. As a bright spot in this sea of darkness, early in the pandemic, my kids talked to a friend who declared (parroting a parent) that covid takes less lives than auto-accidents. They jointly went through the math, and next week the friend wears a mask …

There is a story about, I think, R Salanter who got into a dispute with a maskil in an inn. R Salanter suggested that the loser of the debate would change to the opponent’s style of suit, and he took his jacket off to start. Maskil refused this condition and R Salanter refused debating saying there is no point debaing someone who is not ready to consider a possible defeat. This describes a lot of anti-intellectual discussions lately.

or a husband?

quoting, for example, (Lubavich) R Dubov Laws of Yichud ch. 10, see for more there
In general, a man should try to visit a male doctor, and a woman, a female doctor. However, if no doctor of the same gender is available, it is permitted to be treated by a doctor of the opposite gender.

meeting takes place in a public office or clinic during office hours
door to the doctor’s office is open slightly or closed but not locked, and other members of staff may enter at any time.
Tzitz Eliezer Vol. 6:40:12 writes that a woman may enter a doctor’s office for an examination if the door is closed but not locked (as long as there are three people in the waiting room, or else a man and his wife), for then it is considered a Pesach Posuach Lirshus Horabim. However, Nishmas Avraham 22:1 quotes Rabbi S. Z. Auerbach zt’l: “Rav Auerbach zt’l also told me that as long as a nurse, patient or any other person can at any time enter the examination room, whether as part of his or her job or whether in error, there is no transgression of Yichud.” The implication is that this Yichud situation is permissible even if there is nobody in the waiting room at the time, since the appointment is within office hours and someone may enter at any moment, hence creating a Pesach Posuach. This is also evident from the following Responsa from Igros Moshe Even HoEzer Vol. 4:65:1 who writes: “As regards a woman who needs to be examined by a doctor while undressed (even though there is another person in another room of the doctor’s offices, and it is not customary for anyone to enter his examination room, nevertheless,) it is a daily occurrence that even the wives of Torah scholars go alone to the doctor and are secluded with him in his office. This lenient behavior has become widespread because the doctor, be he a Jew or a non-Jew, is intent on his work, removing from him any lustful feelings. Even when he finishes his examination he cannot spend extra time with her, for there are other patients whom he has scheduled for the following time slot. And even if the next patient has not yet arrived, he fears that he or she may arrive soon. If she is the last patient for the day and he knows that no other patients are expected, one may rely on the presence of an employee in his office, for should he spend more than the usual amount of time with the patient, this will arouse suspicion. The doctor, Jew or non-Jew, will be careful that no suspicion is cast on his name that might harm his practice. However, she cannot be permitted to be secluded with him when there is no one else in the office and when no other patient is expected, and her son, daughter or husband must accompany her to such an appointment. But, if she did go to the appointment alone at such a time and transgressed the prohibition of Yichud, she is not forbidden to her husband, for Yichud alone is not sufficient to forbid a woman to her husband.” See also Minchas Ish 18:4.
Shevet Halevi (Shiurei Shevet Halevi Hilchos Niddah p. 278, Responsa Vol. 4:167) summarizes the guidelines of visitation by women to medical personnel:

She should minimize as much as possible examination by male personnel.
Wherever possible, she should request a female doctor/nurse.
When a female doctor is not available or the male doctor is better qualified, it is permitted for her to be examined by a male.
Under no circumstances may a woman be examined by any medical personnel who are known to be promiscuous.
She should only visit a doctor during office hours when others are present in the office.
Whenever possible, she should be accompanied by another woman.
The doctor should leave the door of the office slightly ajar, or at least closed but not locked.
Non-observant medical personnel may advise a woman to do something in violation of halachah. Therefore, women should always take medical advice in conjunction with a competent Rav.
She should not engage in prolonged conversation or joke with the doctor, but rather just focus on the medical issue at hand.
As regards her husband accompanying her to the office, Shevet Halevi writes that if the husband will have to wait in a waiting room full of women (who may be prutzos), then this accompaniment for the purpose of mitigating the Yichud situation may be detrimental in terms of tznius. (However, it seems to this author that if the visit is to a private clinic in the doctor’s home or private offices it is preferable for her husband to attend.)

Gadol > there still seems to be a competition as to how many honorific prefixes

You are not an only gadol who feels this way! R Kamentsky’s son writes in the introduction to his book that he is just using the letter R in front of each name leaving it up to the reader to read it as Reb, Rav, Rabbi, Rabban, Gadol Hador … (paraphrasing)

Avira, you are right about that. I am also curious how the end of her story jabs with her acceptance as a scholar. Maybe it means that social condition in general creates a condition and one should be careful. So, yes, Beruriah was able to overcome her natural tendencies and that is why she wrote about it, as everyone working on his/her middos is keenly aware of them. Still, an additional push from R Meir did her over. There is a general idea that people have an ability withstand test that Hashem sends to you, but if you add up your own test, good luck with that! So, this creates both a question for Beruriah – why she put herself in danger; but even more for R Meir – why did he feel necessary to over-test her.

edited

n0 > It could easily have been said by someone who is very pro the constitution.

if you mean the professor story, I had to re-read it thrice to make sure he is saying “blame the constitution” as a call for action.

ujm > Republicans should double the size of the federal circuit courts,

note that R- are relatively restrained here (as it fits “conservatives”). It is usually D-s who break the rules/tradition, like filibuster for judges, and then R-s get one chance to retaliate. This is a losing game – both for the country as safeguards are thrown away one-by-one (who remembers now that Senators were supposed to be appointed by State legislation?) ; and also it is always advantage D-s when a next breach will occur. One of Trump’s attractions was that he is capable of fighting same level as opponents, without restricting to an honorable but losing position.

Syag > I don’t think finding out the truth is as easy as clicking a link. I believe clicking the link is what fed them the garbage.

I agree. It is not easy to figure out what is true on hot issues. I sometimes read a pretty convincing claim (yesterday: there is British report that shows that masks at schools did not help) that I am suspicious of only because it contradicts my prior views. I actually go to this 20-page report and it says mostly the opposite several times on page 1 and an ambiguous caution note at p. 15 that was (mis)quoted. Now, if I would not suspect it, I would buy the argument. If I would not read the report, I would have partly discounted my previous views.

This is a total failer of free speech. The original American idea was let’s everybody say whatever they want, so that the public can evaluate their claim. By now, free speech is weaponized by references to pseudo-statistics, and the public now includes people with no ability to analyze those claims.

ujm, what is your principle? There is a clear difference here: either you trust majority and then you are in favor of pure democracy, or you want to be more conservative and create various entities and slow-down rules that require super-majorities and agreement across different geographic areas and social groups for law-making. There was even an original proposal to introduce the same in the executive (3 co-presidents representing north, middle, south). Polish seim used to have a veto system – where one member was able to block legislator and this eventually failed the country, including due to foreign (Russian) influence who could always buy off a couple of members.

So, if you are looking for a middle ground, you need to look at it empirically – did we go too far in one or another direction? Looking over 200+ years, US seems to be doing not bad comparing with peers. Looking more at the downside – US escaped a lot of social turmoil that grappled Europe and corrupted government of South America. Maybe England, Canada, and Australia have comparable success, but they can’t defend democracy in the world lately without US. Is the secret simply in speaking English and being separated y water from Europe?!

How do general rules work? Rav Yehuda is not dismissing Beruriah just because an average lady is not boke in shas. As my first statistics teacher, my grandmother O’H who never took a formal course used to say: a cow drowned in a river that was on average up to her knee.

Gadol, sounds like the J6 reruns worked as sobering medicine for your tds, or should we just call it a “retroactive vaccine”? great news

re:vaccine, let’s do retrospective review: original ph. 3 results were:
20x reduction in transmission 2 weeks after 2nd vaccine, assuming same behaviors.

what changed or is better understood now:
for getting infected:
1) effect gradually decreases from 2 weeks, so several months later it maybe 5x not 20x
2) did not change: effect is roughly the same for all age groups, with similar decrease for all
3) variants decreased effectiveness
4) there seems to be a conclusion that 3-4 weeks between doses is too short. Better to have more time between them to get longer immunity that is now being improved by boosters. The idea was to get to full 2-doses faster. I think Brits are doing 2 months now, but US still does 3 weeks.
Here, as in other aspects, the big guy dismissed former guy’s successful team and also his own advisors who were useful for pre-election PR and relied solely on government thinkers, severely limiting new ideas, so public policy flows by itself uncontrolled.

5) mixing mRNA and JJ/AZ seems to work well (JJ first), but not tested/advertised enough – companies do not care and gov did not pursue

6) kids were underestimated. They were first presumed not to contribute to transmission.

for serious sickness:
1) immunity seems to be holding against variants and time pretty well despite variants
2) vaccines were not optimized for long-term T-cell production. There are several vaccines in development that try to focus on that. Maybe months away from production