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Have you been using the one in the encrypted message? That’s the one I contact him on for Coffee Room related correspondence.
Thanks for brining back some memories of the good old days. Squeak is on vacation and I’m not sure if he’s checking the Coffee Room before he returns.
Instead of considering it a forfeit send him an e-mail, he’s pretty responsive.
(He left his email address in this encrypted message. You’ll either need to remember which thread I left the cypher in or get your own team of Polish Cryptographers.)
“This is why we can’t have a discussion and I am not going to continue.”
Please don’t! Responding to you takes lots of my time but I feel that the Torah needs to be represented on a Frum website. As I mentioned in my previous post I’m not responding to you per se- I’m pointing out the lies, hypocrisy and fallacy in your posts to other who may otherwise believe you. You’ll thank me when you get to the next world for all the sins your followers may have otherwise committed.
“It is painful to me to have to discuss issues where we disagree on the basic facts.”
Now think of what I have to put up with between you intentionally missing the point, lying, ignoring strong points that I make, leaving out parts of my posts to make it seem like I’m a wicked person and the list goes on and on.
“I would like to introduce you to a few diseases that have absolutely zero to do with a person lifestyle. This is just a short list.
Cancer – in all its forms over the body
MS
Parkinson’s
Crohn’s
Alzhiemer’s
Ashma
Some forms of Diabetes
etc…etc…etc…I would also like to introduce you to the millions of people who are the victims of auto, fire, and flood accidents.”
Right- you’re mentioning the medical costs that are unavoidable but again ignoring the bulk of the medical costs which would be avoidable if people acted responsibly. When I briefly worked within the ACA I studied annual costs of the members with the highest medical claims before running them through actuarial reinsurance software. The highest claims (excuse me if I get the order wrong) were for:
1. A person doing motorcycle stunts whose bill was close to $1,000,000 (he didn’t survive)
2. A couple where the guy was trying to show off to his girlfriend and they got electrocuted when their hot air balloon went into power lines (they both survived- him in better condition than her)
3. A guy who got electrocuted and fell off his roof while installing Christmas lights (he survived).
And this is just accidents- not chronic illnesses due to horrible lifestyle choices.The next highest claims that I came across were for kidney dialysis and were considerably less. (Heart attacks, open heart surgery and the likes didn’t meet the threshold for the analysis I was doing.)
“Insurance plans and Higher Deductibles were already going up for decades before the ACA. I also pay for my family’s insurance and know that this is true. There was no guarantee from any insurance companies that the trend wasn’t going to continue. In fact , it was obvious that it was going to continue until someone reigned them in.”
I definitely agree with you on that. As medical care got better and more expensive devices came along peoples treatments got better and more expensive and they were living longer. Also, as the ratio of makers to takers started trending to zero (the makers having less kids than the takers) there were less people to pay premiums and more people free riding so the premiums got higher. Then some makers had to become takers- it’s a vicious cycle.
“If you want to blame the ACA , the Insurance companies love you.”
It was happening long before the ACA- the ACA just made it exponentially worse. If you read enough on the inner workings of the ACA (unfortunately the information is extremely complicated and hard to find online- you need to go to the CMS website and download documents that are hundreds of pages long) you’ll see that there was no mathematical chance for the ACA to work. It seriously hurt hard working families (like my own) where our medical expenses went up about $10,000 annually for lower quality care.
And by the way- insurance companies lost hundreds of millions if not many billions of Dollars in this debacle.
“Similar to Oil companies making record profits this year and everyone blames Biden.”
As I explained before (and you ignored it) in economics there’s a supply and demand curve, as supply goes down (or up) the demand will go up (or down) and prices will go up (or down). When President Biden signed that executive order on his first day in office the US stopped being energy independent, the supply went down, the demand went up and prices went up (and the US became weaker internationally). So oil companies are able to make record profits and yes the blame is squarely on President Biden (or whichever Democrat told him to sign it).
“2) I need to explain why people who have SSA are not responsible for their being SSA and can never be “cured” by going for psychological help?
In the real world, there are people with SSA and no amount of psychological treatment will make them non-SSA.”
Again- you’re purposely missing the point and misquoting me. I don’t believe I ever wrote that they can be cured- I don’t know too much about the topic to comment on it one way or another. (If I did please point it out to me and I’ll take back what I wrote.) These people need psychological help to feel comfortable using the restroom / locker room that corresponds to the gender they were born with. (I.e. only people born with one set of “X” Chromosomes and one set of “Y” Chromosomes use the restroom / locker room that says “Male” and only people born with two sets of “X” Chromosomes use the restroom / locker room that says “Female”.) They can also use some serious psychological help learning how to keep their private lives private and not having parades and the likes to show their perversion.
If you think about it- from all the grotesque relationships the Torah mentions there’s one that the Torah calls an abomination. Those that want to destroy the Torah (i.e. the Democratic party who want everyone to forget that Hashem exists so they will worship and vote for Democrats instead of Hashem) are purposely taking something so important to the Torah and shoving it in everyone’s face.
To reiterate what I’ve said before- if these people would keep their private lives private the whole SSA issue would be a non-issue.
“The Republican states are the biggest beneficiaries of the Federal Government money put in by Blue States.”
I’m not sure if that’s true or not (I don’t know one way of the other) but I don’t know why that has anything to do with anything. Some states produce more money than other states and some states produce more milk than other states.
The point is there are way too many able bodied people in this country (enabled by the Democrats) who could be contributing to society but aren’t.
“You will realize that the slogan that Republicans “just want people to take responsibility for their behavior” is simply a wicked slogan to allow themselves to not help other people.”
Again- you’re purposely misquoting me and purposely missing the point. Like I’ve said a number of times earlier but you refuse to acknowledge- if the only people getting entitlements are those who physically or mentally can’t take responsibility for themselves, as well as those who are temporarily down on their luck- the entire entitlement crisis would be a non-issue.
“I told you before that I am not here to have private discussions.
Especially when they don’t lead to anything fruitful.”So just ignore my posts like you do most of the time- my responses aren’t meant for you per se- they’re to point out your hypocrisy to everyone else. At this point I don’t think I can help you. I had you in mind on Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur that you should see the truth and do Teshuva. I honestly thought when you were gone for a month afterwards that you were doing Teshuva- unfortunately I was wrong.
“After 4 tries, I couldn’t even convince you on the topic about the republican view that impeaching Clinton was 100% justified but impeaching Trump twice was 100% unjustified.”
That’s a lie! When you said that impeachment is for high crimes and misdemeanors, not lying under oath and I pointed out to you that lying under oath is a misdemeanor you ignored me. You sure had me convinced that the impeachment was justified. Similarly, when you said that President Trump perjured himself and I pointed out that it was actually President Biden who admitted on camera that he threatened to pull $1 billion in loan guarantees if the Ukraine didn’t fire the prosecutor investigating the company Hunter used to work for. When you ignored that as well you sure as anything had me convinced that the impeachment was 100% unjustified.
(In fairness to you- you didn’t totally ignore it, you responded that we should learn together the whole Shavuos night or something like that. Unfortunately that wouldn’t work as I would only take on a Charusa that I want my kids to look up to.)
“In the real world it does not work. We don’t live in a utopia where everyone given an opportunity can make it. In the real world, there will always be people that need to rely on the government for assistance.”
Are you purposely leaving out what I wrote later on? If entitlements would only be given to those who for mental or physical reasons can’t sustain themselves as well as those who are temporarily down on their luck, the entitlement crisis would be a non-issue. I agree that we don’t live in a utopia where everyone can make it. That doesn’t mean that the government should take money from hard working people who can barely support themselves to pay people not to work and vote Democrat.
“Ditto for the next paragraph of yours.”
Instead of just dismissing the entire paragraph, can you please explain why the items I mentioned would still be issues?
“1) Healthcare and Insurance has nothing to do with people taking care of themselves. Pregnancy is not due to illness. Most reasons that people go to the Doctor have nothing to do with a lifestyle.”
It sure does. If people took responsibility for themselves (I’m going to reiterate again that I’m not referring to people who for mental or physical reasons can’t as well as those who are temporarily down on their luck) they should have no problem finding employment that provides health benefits for them and their families. Furthermore- the bulk of medical claims costs could be avoided if people ate healthier, exercised responsibly, drove carefully, didn’t take stupid risks, avoided illegal drugs, stayed away from violence…
Pregnancies, ear infections and ingrown toenails are part of life and expected medical claims.
Gun shot wounds and drug overdoses are medical costs that could be avoided. (I know that there are many other types of claims in between but you get the point unless you’re purposely missing it.)“Americans deserve what every other country has and that is a healthcare system that takes care of them and doesn’t force them to choose between food and paying for insurance.”
If Americans would have the same culture as the countries you have in mind they’d be able to have the same kind of healthcare systems. (Not that I’m jealous of the health care that they have in Canada or the UK.)
“Why should we have Medical Debt or people declaring bankruptcy due to it even after they have paid their insurance premiums?”
Again, it’s the people that milk the system that ruin it for everyone. If all work able people would get jobs that provide health insurance and start living a healthier lifestyle there would be more premiums being paid and less medical claims. It would be a non-issue to pay the premiums and other medical costs for those people who legitimately can’t take care of themselves and medical debt would slowly go away.
Before the ACA came out I had a generous health insurance plan with a $250 annual deductible. I was paying about $200 per month in premiums and my employer was paying about $1,200 per month. After the ACA came out I had a less generous health insurance plan, was paying around $400 per month, my employer was paying about $1,400 per month and the deductible was $7,500 per year. I couldn’t afford the extra close to $10,000 and may have gone bankrupt if I didn’t move to a cheaper location and switch jobs. Was it fair to my family to have to move from the only home they ever knew and for me to have to switch from the only corporate job I had at the time so that I (and hard working, responsible people like me) could pay the health insurance costs of those who chose not to take care of themselves?
“2) “If people that are attracted to others of the same gender would get the psychological help that they need the toeva crisis would be a non-issue.”
I don’t think that is the Republican view. Even if it is their view, it is totally false.”Instead of just saying that it’s totally false can you please explain why?
Much of what I’m going to post was already posted but you ignored it- therefore I’m going to write it again. Instead of ignoring your post I took the time to respond to each of your points and I trust that you will reciprocate.
Republicans want to make it easy for people to take responsibility for themselves so the government can take a step back while the Democrats are creating a culture where people cannot take responsibility for themselves, thus relying on the government, voting Democrat and keeping those politicians in power.
Many of the pressing issues that you’ve brought up in the past would be non-issues if people took responsibility for themselves and didn’t get them into situations where they need the government to take care of them.
For example:
If people would only take out student loans for degrees where they can realistically pay back their loans (i.e. STEM instead of Gender Studies) the student loan crisis would be a non-issue.
If people would take care of their health, not overdose on drugs, not smoke and not do dangerous things the health insurance affordability crisis would be a non-issue.
If people would take the proper precautions to ensure that they don’t become pregnant- the abortion crisis would be a non-issue.
If people would follow the law and not commit crimes the cashless bail crisis would be a non-issue.
If people that are attracted to others of the same gender would get the psychological help that they need the toeva crisis would be a non-issue.With that being said I’m going to address what I think you were trying to write in your post.
You ask what Lo Taaseh’s the Republican Party follows?
The short answer is every Lo Taaseh that the Democratic party follows plus the Lo Taaseh of murder and immoral marriages. Abortion and gun control are two very different things and you know this. Guns have good uses and unfortunately bad uses. If you can somehow get guns out of the hands of bad people it’ll be a different equation- until then good people need guns to protect themselves against bad people that have the guns illegally. (Your problem with guns is that without guns good people need to rely on the government instead of being able to take care of themselves.)
Virtually all abortions could have been avoided if the mother would have taken appropriate steps earlier on. There are virtually no good abortions- it’s a selfish act by a person who has no problem denying a person the possibility of graduating so that they can graduate, denying a person the joy of socializing with friends so that they can socialize with their friends…
I have no idea what you’re talking about in your second paragraph but I’m going to take a wild guess and assume that you’re complaining that Republicans don’t like the generous entitlements that the Democrats are wasting by paying people not to take care of themselves. I may be wrong but I don’t think there’s a mitzvah to take money from someone who needs it and give it to someone who wouldn’t otherwise need it. I also think that there’s no mitzvah in giving entitlements to people to keep them in the cycle of poverty. (As I mentioned before in other threads, if entitlements would only be giving to those who for mental or physical reasons can’t sustain themselves as well as those who are temporarily down on their luck, the entitlement crisis would be a non-issue.)
You mention Avoda Zara, Aver min Hachay, White Collar Gezeila, Other forms of Giluy Arayos?
I don’t beleive either party is against Avoda Zara, Aver min Hachay or Giluy Arayos. White Collar Gezeila? Again- I’m not sure what you’re referring to there but the Republicans are against theft while the Democrats don’t seem to have an issue with that (releasing criminals multiple times per day on cashless bail…). You also have to keep in mind that just about all politicians are not role models in their personal lives- you’re voting for them for their policies, not the way they act.
(As a side point- you mention Giluy Arayos, while Former President Trump’s behavior around women is nothing to be proud of, it’s technically not Giluy Arayos, while it’s common knowledge that President Biden started living with Jill while she was married to someone else- a gross violation of Giluy Arayos- but I don’t recall you ever having an issue with that.)
I also noticed that you surreptitiously left out one of the Sheva Mitzvos Bnai Noach- the one regarding Dinim, establishing laws and a system of courts. I see the Republicans taking this seriously- President Trump nominated three amazing justices who follow the Constitution to the letter and even voted against the president who nominated them when they felt his claim wasn’t within the law. On the other hand- take a look at the Democrats- President Obama nominated a justice to the supreme court that had zero experience as a judge, President Biden nominated a justice that is either clueless regarding the Constitution or has no respect for the Constitution (based on the number of her earlier rulings that were overturned). Not only that- she was nominated solely for her gender and skin color even though she couldn’t even define what a woman is!
Why would I want to live in any of the countries you mentioned? There’s a difference between not wanting those grotesque parades or perverts in female locker rooms. Most Republicans would have no issue with consenting adults doing whatever they want behind closed doors as long as they don’t shove it in everyone’s face. As I mentioned before the issue is with the redefinition of what a marriage is. (You seem to think that it’s just a silly piece of paper so who cares. It more than that- for starters think about the orphans that will end up being placed in these dysfunctional marriages- would they have any chance of growing up normal?)
You’re seriously out of your mind if you think that Republicans are trying to restrict my ability to live as a Frum Yid. I don’t see the Republicans starting up with Yeshivas and telling them that they need to teach subjects that are totally against what we believe in.
Would you be able to give some examples of how they’re restricting our ability to live as Frum Yidden?
You wrote this before, “ republicans who have no positive commandments and only have 2 negative ones (Abortion and Immoral Lifestyles.)” but I have no idea what you’re talking about.
Would you mind explaining?
Thanks
I think my Tefillos are working.
@Mr. Eliezer
Why is it so hard for a Liberal to have a normal discussion? You claim to be an intelligent person and I have yet to hear a Liberal back up their beliefs with a valid claim.
I’ve tried having diplomatic discussions with you and other posters who share your political views but I either get no response, an attempt at a personal attack to try and discredit me, a lame excuse (e.g. I have a response but I’m not going to write it) or some sort of mussar that we’re all Yidden so we should try to get along.
Trust me, I love everyone here and would drop everything to help anyone in anyway that I can. I daven for all you Liberals that you should do Teshuva before it’s too late. I judge everyone לכף זכות but השם knows the truth.
When Social Security was created the Democratic Party could be looked up to. The Democratic leadership of those days would be considered Republicans if they were still around.
@Mr. Eliezer
There are plenty of entry level openings out there that require no skills (e.g. flipping burgers and stocking shelves). One can easily get a job without even graduating high school that will let them swim and grow from there. There are enough public schools out there that just about anyone can get a high school diploma for practically nothing. So, yes, he can make it on his own without skills or a springboard.
As I said earlier but you failed to address in your numerous posts-
“If the only ones getting handouts were those who are truly unable to swim on their own and those who are temporarily in a rough spot- the whole entitlement disaster would be a non-issue.”@Mr. Eliezer
Except possibly for those who are physically or mentally challenged the US provides many opportunities for everyone to swim on their own. If the only ones getting handouts were those who are truly unable to swim on their own and those who are temporarily in a rough spot- the whole entitlement disaster would be a non-issue.
I’m sure you realized by now that for some posters as long as their pushing their party’s agenda the truth is a mere inconvenience.
@coffee addict
If you think about it what it comes down to is that Republicans want people to take responsibility for themselves and the booming economy that former President Trump created made it easier for most people to do that.
Democratic politicians, on the other hand, do not care about anyone- they just care about their votes. They’re trying to create a society where it’s almost impossible to take responsibility for yourself and you become reliant on the government and continue to vote in those politicians.
If you say that you vote Republican because it’ll be better for you I’m going to guess that you take responsibility for yourself.
You’re correct that I was generalizing too much so I’m going to split it into a few more categories. Those that vote Democrat either:
1. Feel bad for the people who don’t take responsibility for themselves and mistakenly think that voting Democrat will help them and:
2. People who don’t take responsibility for themselves because:
A. The Democrats created a cycle of poverty that they are purposely keeping them in or
B. They legitimately can not take care of themselves due to a mental handicap or physical handicap.
Are there more people illegally killed by assault weapons every year or legally slaughtered before they’re even born?
You’re comment couldn’t be further from the truth. Our opinions are a complete opposite.
I hold that you can’t lie or purposely distort the facts even to promote a political party that doesn’t push agendas that are diametrically opposed to the Torah while you have no issue lying and purposely distorting facts to promote a political party that purposely promotes agendas that are diametrically opposed to the Torah. (Unless you know that it’s wrong but justify it because you want to make sure your opinion is heard.)
People who vote Republican vote that way because they take responsibility for themselves and want others to do the same. People who vote Democrat do so because it’s easier to vote Democrat than to get a job, raise a baby that you don’t want, stop committing crimes, get psychological help if you’re attracted to someone of the same gender or paying off student debts for degrees that won’t pay for themselves such as gender studies.
The people that I know that vote Republican at times voted Democrat until the party went too far to the left and fell off the cliff- hardly the kind of people you can accuse of voting Republican because they are brainless or brainwashed.
They didn’t win more seats because of the brainless people who are programmed to vote Democrat without thinking of the damage that it’ll cause and because it’s easier to vote Democrat than to get a job, raise a baby that you don’t want, stop committing crimes, get psychological help if you’re attracted to someone of the same gender or paying off student debts for degrees that won’t pay for themselves such as gender studies.
It may work in the short term for those who voted Democrat but it’ll hurt them in the long term.
I’m very confident that if there was an exam requirement to vote (that showed that the voter knows what each party represents) the outcome would be different.
Interesting choice of words- but again you purposely left out the critical points. I’ll rewrite your last sentence with the missing words.
The Republicans know <not> only how to point out issues <but to solve them as well> but <unfortunately> have absolutely zero ability to solve them <while the Democrats, who are intent on destroying the country and implementing their perverted ways, are in control of the White House, Senate and Congress>.
There, I fixed it for you.
@Reb Eliezer
Who cares about his attitude? I care about results. He’s a brilliant businessman who, without any prior political experience, was by far the best president ever. All this without taking advice from his advisors.
@Reb Eliezer-
She already proved that she’s our enemy and we can’t rely on her. Even if you don’t know if you can trust him you should vote for him since it can’t get much worse.
As far as his family is concerned- while him marrying a non-Jew is against Halacha it’s not immoral. Besides- we’re voting for him for his policies, not for the way he acts in his personal life.
If his marriage bothers you so much why did you vote for President Biden if he committed adultery with Jill while she was married to someone else. That’s both against Halacha and immoral.
Are you ח״ו insinuating that if not for the NYS DOE interference he would have said to vote Democrat? Do you plan to vote Republican since that’s what דעת תורה advised to do?
I was referring to the one that seems to have done a 180 within the past week.
(I did take an early retirement from the Coffee Room about 10 years ago- not sure if you remember what happened back then- and made an annual guest appearance on April 1st. Now that I’m back from retirement, albeit in a different capacity, I don’t make a grand appearance on April Fools.)
Please be דן לכף זכות that he realized his mistake and did תשובה.
The information should be readily available online but here’s an oversimplified explanation of how I believe the lottery works. The PowerBall (and MegaMillions) is a multi-state game so there are more people playing than a typical lottery.
Let’s say a ticket is $2, for each ticket sold the jackpot increases by $2 but only 65% of the ticket sale needs to go to the jackpot (since it’s annuitized over 20 payments or a lump sum of much less is paid out). 10% or so goes to the retailer, I’m not sure how much is set aside for smaller prizes (although the expected value could be easily calculated) and the rest goes to the gaming commission which distributes the bulk of it to stuff that taxes would otherwise pay for.
Let’s say someone just one the lottery and cleared out the jackpot. Actuaries will estimate that say 10,000,000 million tickets will be sold, therefore they’ll estimate the jackpot at $20,000,000. With roughly 300,000,000 possible outcomes and 10,000,000 tickets sold- the odds of a winner are 1/30.
If no one wins there’s already $20,000,000 in the jackpot. Actuaries will estimate that they can raise the estimated jackpot to $45,000,000 since at that size 12,500,000 tickets will be sold. With each subsequent drawing that no one wins the jackpot goes higher and even more tickets are sold.
The past drawing was for an estimated $1,000,000,000 and no one won. If the next estimated jackpot is $1,200,000,000 that means that 100,000,000 tickets are estimated to be sold and the chances of a winner are 1/3.
The previous drawing was on a Monday and the next one is on a Wednesday. Had the previous drawing been on a Wednesday with the next one on a Motzaei Shabbos the estimate jackpot would have been much higher. Actuaries took into account that the time between the two drawings is two business days and no weekends or legal holidays.
I wouldn’t add on to my house since I’m happy with what I have. I wouldn’t fly any class except coach since I think it’s a waste to spend so much money when I’m perfectly comfortable in coach. If I was forced to upgrade I’d try to trade with someone who doesn’t look comfortable in coach.
Given the choice I’d take the lump sum so I can give it to those people or organizations who need it more than I do sooner rather than later.
First comes the list of things I wouldn’t do.
I wouldn’t-
Quit my job,
Fly any class besides coach,
Add on to my house,
Own a luxury vehicle,
Make a donation anywhere in my own name,
Donate buildings to Yeshivas (I think the campaigns are beautiful and give thousands of people the zechus to be part of it),
Let my kids know.As far as what I would do- mainly look around to see what kind of voids I can fill in the kehila.
Create a Gemach that helps people help themselves (e.g. provide assistance in finishing their education…),Get Shadchanim under control (e.g. create a training course and certification so that people don’t wake up one morning and say “I’m a Shadchan”… Have some sort of discipline process for Shadchanim who don’t follow the rules- up to losing their certification and being banned from suggesting shidduchim.)
Have a fund of say $5,000,000 to co-sign a mortgage application for families struggling to pay tuition and can’t come up with money for a down payment.
Some other projects but I assume you get the idea.
The above analysis was made using a guaranteed rate of 5% for the entire duration. If the winner wants to try for a higher rate of return he/she could try riskier investments, the lottery commission can’t take that chance.
The advantage of taking it earlier is in case the lottery goes bankrupt or the government raises the tax rates later on.
The advantage of going for the annuity is if the interest rates drop to .1% or something and the winner is still getting paid as if it’s 5%.
Assuming interest is always a constant 5% there’s no advantage.
If all the money is put straight into the bank once received the future values are exactly the same.
With the lump sum payment the value of the payment will be 50,000,000 x ((1-(1/1.05^20)))/.05) x 1.05 = 654,266,042.98. After 19 years (when the 20th payment is made) the future value will be 654,266,042.98 x 1.05^19 = 1,653,297,705.14.
With the annuity option the year number, payment number, payment amount, present value at time 0 and value of the payment at time 19 (when the last payment is made) is as follows:
(Hope this copies from Excel nicely)
Time Payment # Payment Present Value at Time 0 Value at Time 19
0 1 50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 126,347,509.77
1 2 50,000,000.00 47,619,047.62 120,330,961.68
2 3 50,000,000.00 45,351,473.92 114,600,915.89
3 4 50,000,000.00 43,191,879.93 109,143,729.42
4 5 50,000,000.00 41,135,123.74 103,946,408.97
5 6 50,000,000.00 39,176,308.32 98,996,579.97
6 7 50,000,000.00 37,310,769.83 94,282,457.12
7 8 50,000,000.00 35,534,066.51 89,792,816.30
8 9 50,000,000.00 33,841,968.10 85,516,967.91
9 10 50,000,000.00 32,230,445.81 81,444,731.34
10 11 50,000,000.00 30,695,662.68 77,566,410.80
11 12 50,000,000.00 29,233,964.45 73,872,772.19
12 13 50,000,000.00 27,841,870.91 70,355,021.13
13 14 50,000,000.00 26,516,067.53 67,004,782.03
14 15 50,000,000.00 25,253,397.65 63,814,078.13
15 16 50,000,000.00 24,050,854.90 60,775,312.50
16 17 50,000,000.00 22,905,576.10 57,881,250.00
17 18 50,000,000.00 21,814,834.38 55,125,000.00
18 19 50,000,000.00 20,776,032.74 52,500,000.00
19 20 50,000,000.00 19,786,697.85 50,000,000.00
Total 1,000,000,000.00 654,266,042.98 1,653,297,705.14So either way, the future value at year 19 (when the 20th payment is made) with interest is 1,653,297,705.14.
Of course if the winner is a savvy investor that number could be significantly higher.
Is that what you were asking?
Technically it’s the same as the net present values are equal to each other.
It’s actually two different reasons. Years ago jackpots were annuitized over say 20 year with the first payment paid this year and 19 additional equal payments. More recently different state lotteries have allowed users to choose to get the full amount (pre-tax) in 20 equal payments or the present value (also pre-tax) right away.
I can show you the annuitization calculations but it’s kind of boring.
Regardless of the winners choice the winnings are heavily taxed.
I heard Reb Malkiel Kotker speaking once and he said that it’s OK to buy one ticket but buying more than one is a lack of bitachon.
Given that I’m sure BMG would accept a donation.
Are you just going to go ahead and vote for the people who created this mess in the first place since you think his plan might not work?
Welcome back, hope you had an inspirational Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur.
In case you missed his plan you can rewatch the debate. For starters he plans to get rid of the DA and end cashless bail on day 1.
At least he thinks. (That’s much more than you can say for your leader.)
If I had to guess the heter was meant to be a last resort when all else has already failed. If she’s alive and well there’s still a chance that she’ll come to her senses or they’ll reconcile.
Do you have any more information on the cases where Reb Moshe allowed Bachurim to sign a heter? I’m curious to know if it was cases where the wife refused to accept the gett or cases after the war where husbands couldn’t track down if their wives were still alive.
I’m definitely not the expert in this area. There are definitely more situations- I picked a simple one (e.g. where she is in a vegetative state or disappeared) and a difficult one (e.g. where she’s disputing that the marriage is over, claims everything he said is untrue and claims that for the kids sake they should stay together and each Rov needs to thoroughly investigate the case and decide if he should sign on or not). Of course there are many situations in between.
I was under the impression that the signatories have to be in 100 different cities in 3 different countries or continents and I honestly have no idea if they each need to sign the same document in person or if an email will suffice.
I’m not trying to nitpick your post but aside from the mesader at a future wedding (which could easily be anyone) his future wife also needs to agree that it’s valid. It would be a shame to get a heter and then get engaged only to find out that his future wife wants it done differently and he needs to start all over again.
The intention of the heter was for the husband (or a messenger) to literally travel all over the world to present their case and get 100 Rabonim to sign on. Even in the easiest of cases (e.g. where the wife is in a vegetative state or disappeared a number of years ago and hasn’t been seen since) the traveling itself can be cost prohibitive. In this case, where the wife clearly hasn’t disappeared and isn’t in a vegetative state, on top of the traveling the person also has to present his side of the story and the Rov will try to contact the wife who will dispute everything he says. This will make the process significantly longer if at all possible.
Part of the cherem is that the gett can’t be forcefully given and there may be places where someone will walk into a Kollel and as 100 Yungeleit to sign on but it’s probably not universally accepted.
I’m general debt can be divided into two groups- healthy debt and unhealthy debt. Taking out student loans that will increase a persons earnings by $4,000 a month while the person pays $500 a month in student loans for six years is a healthy debt. Taking out student loans for a degree in gender studies where the student will stock shelves at Walmart for $15 an hour while owing $3,000 per month in student loans is unhealthy debt.
Republicans aren’t trying to keep people in debt per se, they’re trying to make people take responsibility for themselves so the Government can take a step back. There’s only so much help the Government could provide if everyone threw the burden of their bad decisions onto the Government.
As with everything in life- there’s a risk involved and the risk has to be calculated to determine the level of risk one is willing to take. As a simple example- say someone takes out an insurance policy for $1,000,000 and the company needs to know how much cash to keep on hand in case the person dies. It would be foolish to say that they’re not going to hold anything “because it’s such a small chance that the person will die”, while on the other hand it wouldn’t be profitable to hold the entire $1,000,000. An actuary can calculate the perfect amount to set aside but ultimately (regardless of whether the actuary did the calculation properly) the company is responsible to pay the claim. If the company can’t pay out it’s ultimately the policy holder who will suffer for not choosing a reputable enough company.
From what I understand there weren’t too many details disclosed regarding what went wrong with the restaurant in question. From a risk point of view the certifying agency has to determine the amount of risk they are willing to take (from simply taking the owners word for it and having no supervision to having armed guards, metal detectors and raw chicken sniffing dogs stationed 24/7 at each point of entry). So unless it can be proven that משגיח didn’t follow his responsibilities 100% he shouldn’t be held responsible and regardless of that outcome the certifying agency needs to take responsibility.
If someone is trying to circumvent the controls (e.g. locks where the owner isn’t given a key, alarm systems where the owner doesn’t have the code, surveillance cameras that someone externally is monitoring…) it’s going to take a lot to stop them. You’d be surprised at the covert things we’d come up with in high school. How long do you think it took us to remove the doorknob on an empty classroom and replace it with an exact replica? We then had all afternoon to impression a key for the lock and swap it back in to the door. How long do you think it took someone to climb into the drop ceiling near the alarm wire for a particular door and stick a staple or safety pin through the alarm wire to bypass it? And the surveillance camera- it was easily blocked with streamers and balloons for a supposed birthday party. When the principal came the next day he had no idea that some late notes were taken from his drawer (unless he counted them before he left and recounted them when he came back).
Were there additional steps that could have been taken? Sure! Have each doorknob affixed with tamper proof screws, have end of line resistors installed on the alarm system, have a security company monitor the camera and send someone out immediately if it gets blocked. There also could have been motion sensors and heat sensors installed in his office. But ultimately it comes down to making a calculated decision on the proper amount of precautions that are needed. And the consumer has to decide if they have enough trust in the agency that they have the proper level of control.
It would be nice if everyone was ehrliche and comes to (and listens to) Bais Din but unfortunately that’s not the case.
From the three general categories that I believe the heter was created for:
1. The wife has simply disappeared (i.e. her whereabout are unknown),
2. The wife is in a coma or mentally unfit to accept a get and
3. The wife simply refuses to accept the get,
The first two are negated once the wife competently walks into Bais Din and the third one is negated if you’re under the assumption that she’s ehrliche, wants to do the right thing and is going to follow Bais Din.So given that we’re discussing the heter we’re under the assumption that both parties are not sitting in front of Bais Din as Ehrliche Yidden waiting for a Psak and fully intent on following it.
If the wife is fully competent and being obnoxious it’s easier for Bais Din if she refuses to show up than if she shows up, pretends to be the victim while spewing forth an infinite amount of sheker. In the former case the Bais Din will see who the aggressor is while in the latter case the Bais Din will have to sort through all the information and hopefully figure it out. That’s why I think her complying with the summons makes things more complicated for Bais Din.
If your starting assumption is that both parties are ehrliche Yidden, once the Bais Din tells him he can not divorce her- that’s the end of it- they’ll both leave and hopefully work things out on their own. An ehrliche person will not go ahead and find another Bais Din if they don’t like the ruling. The first Bais Din will probably not write up a get for him and give him the go ahead to start getting 100 signatures.
The point of the heter, in my opinion, was to not keep the husband chained forever due to unfortunate extenuating circumstances. As with anything in life that was created with good intent- there are those out there that will exploit it for horrible purposes which goes 100% against what the creators had in mind. The Heter Meah Rabonim is no exception.
You make a good point regarding the current state of Batei Dinim nowadays. If things worked a little better, even in the fragmented state of our communities, if a person is summoned to a Bais Din that he’s not familiar with he should be able to call a local Bais Din to see if they are legit or not (kind of like a hashgacha that he’s unfamiliar with). If research does show that it’s unfortunately a corrupt Bais Din, the litigants (who are hopefully only out for the truth and for what Hashem wants them to do) should be able to find a Bais Din that works for both of them.
When I got summoned to a Bais Din I never heard of a number of years ago I reached out to a dayan on a Bais Din that I was familiar with and trusted. He informed me that the particular Bais Din was as corrupt as they get (one of the dayanim was later arrested and is actually sitting in jail at the moment). Under the guidance of Daas Torah, I informed the plaintiff that I was not going to answer the summons but he is welcome to work with me on choosing a Bais Din that we both trust. He refused to even try that. This showed me that he wasn’t trying to get the emes (to say the least).
Thanks for the link you tried posting- it looks like I was mostly correct with what I wrote earlier with the exception of the dates.
I chose the case where she ignored the subpoena as then the get will possibly be written without her present, she’ll be notified that it’s waiting for her to pick it up and he can start the process (you wanted to know when he can start the process and that’s a simpler case).
If she responds to the subpoena and comes to Bais Din and the two of them can not agree on a single thing and decide to fight it out- it’ll get more complicated. If Bais Din sides with him and issues the get but she refuses to accept it- it’ll stay there until she decides to pick it up. Either way- once the get is written he can initiate the process. If Bais Din refuses to write a get maybe he’ll go ahead and find a different Bais Din- he may have to try multiple Batei Dinim until one sides with him. Either way- until a get is written and waiting for her to pick it up I don’t think he can proceed.
I can’t say what the Rabonim had in mind when they decided on the heter as I don’t even know the names of the Rabonim but I’d like to think that they took the following into account.
If the wife is R”L in a coma- it shouldn’t be too hard for any of the 100 Rabonim to verify the facts through witnesses and sign on. If the wife ignores the subpoena and the get is written in absentia- it may be a little harder but the 100 Rabonim should be able to verify the facts through witnesses and sign on. (It can be costly and time consuming if each ones tries contacting the wife to hear her side of the story and have her explain why she didn’t show up to a legitimate Bais Din, but it is doable.) If the husband kept getting told over and over again that he does not deserve a divorce until he was able to find a Bais Din that is willing to write one up – hopefully the 100 Rabonim that he approaches will catch on to what he did and not sign on.
What if he goes to three friends, calls them his Bais Din, has one of them write up a get and obtains permission to start the process (without his wife even knowing about it) and he gets 100 friends to sign on to the heter? This shouldn’t be too different than some guy calling himself a Rav Hamachshir and giving a Hashgocha- if you hold of the Rov you can go ahead and eat what he certifies, if not stay away from the food.
Similarly- If the husband has the certification that the get was written and 100 signatures that say he can go ahead a marry a second wife- if you trust the Bais Din and 100 signatories- let him marry your sister / daughter… If not- stay away.
Please reread my disclaimer above that I’m not an expert in this topic at all and anything I write is just the way I think it’s supposed to work. (I.e. I don’t have any sources to back it up and it may very well be incorrect.)
You asked when the husband is “entitled” to a Heter Meah Rabonim. I’m not sure that “entitled” is the correct word- maybe the question should be “At what time is it appropriate for a husband to start the process”?
In any regard- if someone is trying to get the heter the way I believe it was intended to work it would be after he sent a subpoena for his wife to appear in Bais Din to initiate the Get procedure. After she refuses to come for a certain amount of time he’ll probably ask the Bais Din to write up the Get in absentia and have a message sent to her that it’s ready to be picked up.
At that point I don’t know if he’s “entitled” to the heter but he can start the process.
(I don’t believe that “entitled” is the correct word- he may very well be the cause of all the issues (and not “entitled” to a Get) and the 100 Rabonim will hopefully realize that and not sign on.)
A rebbe taught us about the Cherem over 30 years ago. Although I still remember the details clearly I have tried over the years to verify the accuracy but haven’t been able to. Keeping that in mind here’s what we were taught.
In the year 949 Rabbeinu Gershon felt that people were taking multiple wives for the wrong reason and instituted a 1,000 year ban against taking multiple wives as well as divorcing a wife against her will (or more specifically- without her knowingly accepting the divorce and what it means). There were two other parts to the cherem but they don’t relate to polygamy.
The ban expired in 1949 but the Rabonim decided to keep them in effect albeit with a loophole in the polygamy ban. The loophole was not intended to allow a person to live with more than one spouse at a time but rather to not keep a person in limbo for the rest of his life due to extenuating circumstances. These circumstances are, for the most part, where a spouse has disappeared, is in a coma or is mentally not competent enough to know what her accepting a Get means. I don’t believe the intent was for situations where they can’t agree on the terms of a divorce- but again, I may be wrong.
There are some basic requirements-
1. He needs to have a Get written up and deposited by a Bais Din where she can pick it up if she decides to,
2. He can not be living in the same house as her once the Get is written up and
3. He must still support her financially.The need for the person to travel the world and get 100 Rabonim from 100 different cities on three different continents was in case one were to question the validity that there was a legitimate necessity- they will hopefully respect that it’ll be very hard to have Rabonim scattered all over the world to collude on it. They may also very well hear that the Rov of City A, City B… (I.e. Rabonim that they know personally and respect) were signatories and not question or snicker at the heter.
Again- I haven’t been able to verify the details so if someone can provide support for (or a reputable source that disputes) this information I’d greatly appreciate it.
Originally I wasn’t going to bother responding to your previous post but I decided to add one more comment to the thread explaining why this will probably be my last one. I’m finding it very difficult to have a productive conversation with someone who, in my opinion, purposely misquotes me, purposely misses the point, purposely ignores questions and attacks me personally in an attempt to discredit me.
Now I’m going to go through your post one point at a time.
For the record- you did concede to my opinion, here’s the quote, “Very well, there are circumstances where an automatic weapon is useful”. If you want to flip flop and take back what you said- that’s fine. To say that you never conceded is simply not true.
We’re in agreement that guns are out of control and a huge overhaul is needed- with respect to mental health I think we agree that something needs to be done.
What I strongly disagree with you on is how to go about this.
As I mentioned in my previous post I never wrote that there’s a common use for automatic weapons. I never mentioned a single case in recent history where a civilian used an automatic weapon for a good reason where a regular small pistol wouldn’t have sufficed because I don’t know of any offhand and that’s not the point- the point is that there can be a reason- even if it’s only one in a billion. I think it’s wrong to deny someone who can prove to be responsible the ability to defend themselves for that rare situation if they want to take on the responsibility (and consequences) of owning a weapon. Take for example the owner of a luxury store that is going through a smash and grab by a group of a dozen or more thugs who are high on drugs. How long will it take for an innocent bystander to be seriously wounded or killed if one of the thugs feels threatened? I personally feel that the owner of the store would be allowed to use lethal force with an automatic weapon to protect his employees and customers, something he may not be able to do with a weapon that can only hold six bullets. The knowledge (or a warning sign) that the owner has an automatic weapon and is justified in using it may be enough of a threat to keep them away altogether. If you don’t agree- there’s not much more I can add and we’ll just have to agree to disagree on this.
“Stopping growth is also reduction.” Sorry- I don’t agree with you on that one. Most things don’t last forever and when an illegally obtained weapon breaks the owner is not just going to give it to the government to melt down if they can’t easily get a replacement. They’ll get creative and come up with their own fix, purchase parts online, make the part themselves or repurpose the parts from something else. Did you ever see pictures of what cars look like in Cuba? In the US when a car gets old and too expensive to maintain, the owner scraps it and buys another one. In Cuba where new cars aren’t as readily available they get creative in keeping the old ones running. Besides for me not agreeing with you that this is an effective way of reducing the number of illegal weapons- you still haven’t explained how it will stop new ones from flowing across the border. (I explained how the supply will increase as the demand increases and the demand for illegal weapons will increase as it becomes harder to get them legally but you ignored that.)
You brought up a statistic- I’m going to describe what was going through my mind as I read that. First off- you quote a “statistic” without saying where you got it from or who conducted it- so as far as I’m concerned it’s irrelevant. But OK- let’s go on. You’re the one quoting it and I’m thinking that you’re only going to quote a “statistic” that agrees with your agenda so I don’t know how many other “statistics” you skipped over as they don’t agree with your mindset. But let’s look at the “statistic” itself. I’m wondering how “average sentence” is defined- is it the amount of time some actually spends in prison or the amount of time some one is sentenced to regardless of if they get out in three months? There’s also no definition for “violence”. Is “violence” when someone gets injured, when a weapon is used in the crime or even if a weapon is brought to the crime regardless of whether it’s used or not (i.e. is the threat of violence considered violence). Was the “statistic” combined from one “study” in the UK and one in the USA and the author merged the two (this can cause the same word to be used differently in each “study” but supposedly represent the same thing in the “statistic”). I find it hard to believe that the average violent offender spends 25 years in prison for violent crimes when many are repeat offenders (many times over) for violent crimes before they even reach 25.
But let’s say somehow the “statistic” is accurate. I think what you’re trying to say is that this proves that the extra violence in the US is caused by the large number of guns in the country compared to the UK. Fine- I’ll agree with you on this- but it’s too late, the illegal guns are here and, in my opinion, you haven’t come up with a reasonable way to get rid of them or even significantly reduce the number.
Why would you even bother to quote the NRA? I don’t trust radical groups on either side. The heck with my NRA studies? What’s that supposed to mean? Are you attacking me with false accusations to try and discredit me because you can’t answer my questions? You look at actual data and draw your conclusions based on that? You’re not fooling me- you look for data that fits the conclusions you want to see and discard everything else- then you make your conclusion. I know nothing about the NRA besides that they advocate for the right for citizens to arm themselves, I don’t ever recall reading an article published by them and definitely never intentionally quoted them.
I made an elementary comment based on my own logic (that you finally attempted to explain the fallacy but didn’t succeed) and you claimed that I was quoting the NRA near-verbatim. You NEVER pointed out which statement from any of my posts were nearly word for word from the NRA. You may have made a mistake and you had numerous opportunities to correct yourself but you didn’t. In English I’d call that a lie. And besides- even if I did accidentally quote them word for word (which I still believe I didn’t) – does that mean that I stand behind everything that say? You quoted Ben Shapiro near-verbatim (“facts don’t care about your beliefs or feelings”)- does that mean you agree with everything he says? (Do you know where he stands on automatic weapons?)
At this point- it’s been great conversing with you but unless you bring up something new I have nothing else to add.
As a parting piece of advice- if the only way you can defend your opinion is by misquoting others, missing the point, ignoring questions you can’t answer and making up false accusations about someone else to discredit him- it may be time to rethink your opinion.
Feel free to not respond or go ahead and respond to get the last word in.
Hatzlacha!
You seem to be missing the point again. Your statement was that there’s never a reason for someone to own an automatic weapon- I proved your statement incorrect by bringing an example- regardless of how rare it is (and you agreed to this). I never wrote that there’s a common use for automatic weapons and you know that. I never mentioned a single case in recent history where a civilian used an automatic weapon for a good reason where a regular small pistol wouldn’t have sufficed because I don’t know of any offhand and that’s not the point- the point is that there can be a reason. I always agreed with you that, for the most part, having automatic weapons in the hands of civilians is a bad thing. The problem is that they already exist- we both agree on that. What we disagree on is how to handle the situation now.
Yes, I want automatic owners to prove responsibility, background checks, regular checkups… I’d go a step further a require home visits as well- all at the expense of the owner- to make sure everything looks normal in the house and the safe is secure (and can’t be opened in less than 60 seconds by methods readily available online). I would’ve even gone further and required a 30-day waiting period for additional applications and background / social media checks (besides- relationship breakups and the murder / attack of a loved one can take longer than 7 days to get over). I don’t believe that a responsible person that meets all the criteria of safeguarding the weapon should have to prove a need but that’s a separate issue.
You still haven’t directed me to something I wrote that’s near word for word something from the NRA so unless you can provide that information, I’m going to assume that it doesn’t exist and you don’t want to own up to your mistake.
What I did write is something that to me makes logical sense and you haven’t been able to explain the fallacy. Let me try again- if there are X number of legal guns out there and Y number of illegal guns- how will reducing the number of X bring down the number of Y? It may stop Y from growing as fast as it’s been growing in the past but you haven’t explained how it’ll be reduced.
For the most part, I don’t care about no name “studies” and “statistics” that don’t make logical sense to me- like you’ve been quoting. You and I both know very well that they can both be used and abused. Would you reply on a “study” conducted by the NRA? What I care is about logic- please explain logically how the “studies” and “statistics” you’ve been quoting make sense. In my profession, even if I am relying on others for statistics and specifically state my reliance, I can be disciplined for using data that I can’t explain the story behind the numbers. (I need to go back to the source and get some clarification. I can only think of one case in close to 20 years where the numbers were actually correct and there was a valid story explaining that.) Since you haven’t been able to do that, feel free to end the conversation here.
You’re purposely ignoring the method I proposed to stop the criminals from getting / using guns. There has to be a strong deterrence to stop the criminals from getting / using them- I believe that’s the only way. (Again- you never explained how the number of illegal weapons out there will be reduced or how to stop new illegal ones from flowing across the border.) How about a 25-year prison sentence – no questions asked- if a criminal commits a crime and a firearm was involved (even if it wasn’t used or displayed).
Feel free to cite whatever “studies”, “research”, “statistics”, “articles”, “laws” and “comparisons” that you want- but please include your sources as well as a logical explanation for the conclusion (when it’s not obvious from the source itself).
Gun control- I agree! It may be the only way but there’s more than one way to go about it and I simply don’t agree that your way is the correct way.
Wishing you a Happy, Healthy and Safe Shabbos!
@yserbius123
It took you over one week to finally admit that there can exist a case where an automatic weapon would be useful. I wasn’t asking you to agree that the pros outweigh the cons- just that an instance can exist. While you seem to be indoctrinated by the far left liberal views and having a hard time thinking for yourself you accuse me of being absorbed in literal corporate propaganda and convinced that the ideas that I thought of on my own were actually put into my head by them without me knowing about it. (All this, without even bothering to explain why the logic I came up with on my own is flawed or incorrect.)
To answer your question- Are there circumstances common enough to warrant an individual civilian to own an automatic weapon (specifically an automatic, not a pistol, or shotgun)? In my opinion the answer is yes. That doesn’t mean that anyone should be able to walk into a store or show and purchase an automatic weapon. If it was up to me I would require extensive background checks, proof of responsibility of safe ownership and operation of the weapon and proof of a secure method of storing the weapon when not in use. I would also make the purchaser be legally responsible (both civilly and criminally) if the owner didn’t safeguard the weapon and it is used in a crime (e.g. a teenage son knew the combination to the safe, the safe was left open, it was left in a locked car but not in an approved safe…).
If you think my explanation of US violence is amateurish please use some logic to explain why, I really don’t care what “studies” (or “statistics”) show. You know good and well that most of the “studies” that you read on the topic have the conclusion decided beforehand. Do you believe AOCs study that the smash and grab robberies of luxury items is due to the thugs being hungry? Do you believe the study from the DA who said that putting people in jail increases crime because then they’ll lose their job and home and become more violent? They knew what they wanted their outcome to be beforehand and concocted a ridiculous story to fit in.
Do England and France really release perpetrators of an armed carjacking immediately without having to post bail? If so, and they have less violence and a lot less gun violence then there must be a parameter missing from the equation. Maybe that parameter is the amount of illegal weapons which you still haven’t given a valid method of removing. The weapons are here already- banning them won’t remove them. You could’ve argued years ago, before the problem came so rampant, that gun purchases need to be controlled better but now it’s too late for that.
You could point and go “NU!” all you want- who’s stopping you? You still haven’t given a single explanation (valid or invalid) how forcing owners of legally purchased weapons to surrender them will force those who have illegal weapons to turn them in. It will reduce the number of weapons but not the number of illegal weapons. You can continue saying that it’s all NRA rhetoric but you may as well point to a mirror and start going “NU!”- it still doesn’t answer anything. I agree that it’s so easy for criminals to get guns but there are still way too many illegal ones out there and again – you haven’t given a valid explanation how to reduce that number, only to possibly stop it from increasing.
You question the statement that “people consider guns to be a necessary evil”. You only quoted half the statement but- fair enough. I think you knew good and well what I meant but let me reword it. Originally people thought that cigarettes were good for their health (or the pros outweighed the cons). People always realized that guns were killing machines and that hasn’t changed. Some people wanted to have these killing machines and some people purchased them as a necessary evil. As a Frum person I try to stay far enough away from the magazines at Rite Aid that I can’t even read the name of the magazine- let alone their stance on guns.
I am scared of the thought of those responsible people that have legally purchased guns from having them taken away. As I mentioned before, I personally am terrified of guns and never held a loaded one, but I do feel more comfortable knowing that some neighbors have guns (due to their professions). These neighbors are responsible people who keep their guns locked up properly when not being worn and have the restraint to only use it if they fear personal harm- not just loss of money. I think it keeps the neighborhood and shuls safer.
Thanks for taking a shot at answering my questions but I don’t think they adequately answer the questions being asked.
1) Saying what the government should do with illegal guns or guns used in a crime doesn’t explain how the government will get their hands on them.
2) Let’s break home burglars into three categories- a) those that are not afraid of breaking into a house with guns, mace, Tasers, baseball bats or alarms systems, b) those that are afraid of breaking into a house with guns but not mace, Tasers, baseball bats or alarms systems and 3) those that are afraid of breaking into a house with guns, mace, Tasers, baseball bats or alarms systems. You may not be able to decide which category a particular criminal belongs in or an accurate percentage for each category but unless you think the percentage of criminals in category b is 0- the number of break-ins will increase if the criminals in that category know there is no gun in the house.
3) There’s a law of supply and demand- if the demand for illegal weapons smuggled across the border is low the supply will be low. If the sale of legal weapons is curbed the demand will go up and hence the supply will go up. Another danger of that is legally sold weapons are regulated (i.e. a background check is done, the serial number is recorded…)- not so much with illegal weapons.
4) You claimed that I was quoting the NRA near-verbatim (i.e. close to word for word), you still haven’t pointed me to what I wrote that matched a quote from the NRA nearly word for word.
5) I agree that both prongs of the problem can be worked on simultaneously but I haven’t seen an emphasis from the government on the people with mental health issues getting the help that they need. On the contrary- the political party that wants to ban guns is promoting certain types of mental illness (even setting aside the entire month of June for this) at the expense of the rest of the population.You commented earlier that there’s NEVER a valid reason for an individual to have an automatic weapon. Period! All I needed to do was to bring a situation, regardless of how rare, where an individual could have benefited from having an automatic weapon and your statement would have been proven false. For example- if you claimed that there’s not a single person on the planet taller than 8′ and it turns out that there are a handful- your statement would be false, even though the number is probably less that one in a billion.
What do you consider “reasonable”? In my example with the mob I specifically didn’t mention guns- I mentioned baseball bats. There have been numerous smash and grabs in the news in the past year or two with a dozen plus thugs who could have easily killed innocent employees or shoppers with their bare hands if they felt threatened. Do you think they would have raided a store if they saw the owner inside with an automatic weapon and his hand on the trigger?
There’s cases besides mobs (again these are exceeding rare as well) where one may need to protect themselves with an automatic weapon. I agree that automatic weapons are ineffective against attack planes and nuclear weapons but let’s say the country decides that there’s a certain part of the population that they want to decimate- they’re not going to use attack planes or nuclear weapons as it will kill much more than those that they want to get rid of. You mentioned earlier that a lot can change in twenty years and brought in the smoking rate as an example- I think the country is much closer to another civil war than we were twenty years ago (I hope I’m wrong about this). I don’t recall the same number of riots and protests 20 years ago and there’s no sign of it slowing down.
I keep explaining why I think the US has such a high rate of gun violence but you refuse to acknowledge it. In my opinion the US teaches people at a young age that you don’t need to take responsibility for your actions and there’s practically nothing discouraging people from committing crimes. When they commit petty crimes and they don’t suffer any consequences they up the ante until they commit murder. It’s usually not the first law that they break. Why should someone be afraid of carjacking someone if they know that if they get caught they’ll be released without even having to post bail? Now imagine the scenario if they don’t even have to worry about the driver having a gun to protect themselves.
You’re correct that if certain guns are banned and confiscated there will be less guns. The problem is that the guns will be removed from the hands of innocent people that had them legally and the remaining guns will be the ones obtained illegally. (You still didn’t mention how the illegal ones will be confiscated and how new ones will be prevented from coming across an open border.) Even if it’s only one one hundredth that are smuggled in (which I don’t believe) a crazy person with the intent on carrying out a mass shooting will be able to get one (it may take longer but they will get one).
I realize that guns are dangerous- I’m terrified of them and never held a loaded gun in my life- but I’m more terrified of the legally owned guns from responsible neighbors being taken away. Like I said earlier on- guns were always known to be dangerous (unlike cigarettes) and the people who obtained them legally considered them to be a necessary evil.
Hopefully you’re enjoying this dialogue as much as I am (and thank you for being respectful) but you seem to be ignoring some of my questions. Would you be able to specifically answer the following questions that I asked in earlier posts?
1) There are probably millions of illegal guns out there- how do you think the government can go about confiscating all of them?
2) If the innocent people have to surrender their guns- what’s going to stop the criminals (armed or not), who until now refrained from breaking into a house because the home owner may have been armed, from burglarizing the house?
3) How should the supply of dangerous weapons flowing across the open southern border be curbed?
4) Which statement of mine was near-verbatim to a statement from the NRA?
5) You seem to agree that it’ll take many years (if at all possible) to get rid of all the guns- it’ll also take a long time to get all people with mental health issues the help that they need. Do you agree that the government should try to get them the help that they need or should the rest of the population have to suffer?No, I don’t think the Yidden could have outgunned the Germans- I didn’t think it through carefully. I was trying to bring some cases where automatic weapons could have otherwise helped innocent people so I chose an example of a government going after its own citizens (the Holocaust) and an invading country going after a specific part of the population (the Jordanian attack on the old city). The point was that these are cases where the oppressors’ couldn’t use air power on their intended targets without killing large numbers of those that they didn’t intend to cause harm to.
Keep in mind though that Yidden weren’t the only targets, the sheet number of civilian victims and that Germany was involved in a full blown war with many allied countries. Had there been a very significant number of heavily armed citizens they may not have had the extra resources at the time to deal with it.
Like most things in life statistics can be used and abused (kind of like guns). As an actuary I’ve seen my share of statistics that are collected and / or interpreted to further ones agenda and intentionally mislead others. I’m fairly confident the statistics your basing your opinions on would fall into that category. As far as I’m concerned the way a statistic is interpreted is an opinion and not a fact. Can you please logically (not statistically) explain why an illegally armed criminal who up until now refrained from breaking into someone’s house because they were afraid that the homeowner may have a legally purchased weapon will not go ahead and break into the persons home if their gun was turned in?
To reiterate again- you CAN NOT compare two countries based on one parameter- it’s like comparing an apple to an orange because they’re both fruits. Just because another country has a lower murder rate doesn’t mean it’s because guns are less rampant. There are other things that cause crime- lack of family structure, being taught at a young age that crime does pay, not having to fear punishment… All these parameters need to be compared. I don’t know what goes on in Scandinavia but let’s say from a young age the schools emphasize proper respect for others and following the law instead of using proper pronouns. I would hope that when they get older they’re afraid of jail because of social stigmas and prefer to stay far away from prison regardless of how comfortable it is. In places in the US where a criminal knows that if they’re arrested for armed carjacking they’ll be released with no bail- there’s no fear in committing the crime. Can you please explain what a life long criminal has to fear if they never faced any consequences?
You mentioned earlier that there’s no valid reason to have an automatic weapon. The case that I mentioned originally was just to poke a hole in your statement by choosing a rare scenario where there would be a valid reason to have an automatic weapon. I believe that I mentioned other situations where it would have been beneficial to have automatic weapons but you chose to not to acknowledge them (i.e. Yidden in Europe during the late 1930’s and residents of the Old City in 1948). Do you mind responding to that? Can you also let me know what I was paraphrasing from the NRA- I honestly have no idea?
You’re probably correct that most mass murders in the US happened with guns purchased legally- you still haven’t explained how banning them will remove the illegally obtained ones. Again- it may may them harder to get but they will still be available to those that have them and obtainable from those who smuggle them across an open border.
I don’t know what cigarettes have to do with guns. They both may be dangerous but they are different. Before there were any known dangers with cigarettes many people got addicted to them and it was going to take some time for the smoking rates to go down. If we’re at that point- great! Guns were known from the start to be dangerous and people either obtained them as a weapon to help their criminal lifestyle or as a necessary evil to protect themselves.
Sorry it’s taking so long to reply- I’m really busy before Shavuos. I know you took the time to respond and I appreciate that.
I’m not trying to offend you but I’m getting the impression that your making your opinions sound like facts. It may be your opinion that the advantages of banning all automatic weapons far outweighs the disadvantages but there are strong opinions to the contrary.
There are numerous situations where one could use (or could have used) automatic weapons- thankfully as you said they are extremely rare. You can’t just look at one situation- you need to look at the sum of all situations. You may very well be correct that the number of lives that have been saved (or that could have been saved) is less than the amount of lives lost but it is something that needs to be taken into account.
In your opinion there’s no good reason to have so many big guns. Do you think the Yidden in Europe would have benefited from having lots of big guns? How about the Yidden who lived in the Old City during the siege in 1948?
I’m not sure what I wrote that’s near-verbatim to the talking points of the NRA. I simply stated that if law abiding citizens need to give up their legally purchased firearms then criminals will have less fear breaking into their homes. It’s something I realized on my own, it makes logical sense to me and you haven’t explained why you feel that it’s incorrect.
Smoking may have gone down significantly over the past 20 years (luckily I live in a community where smoking is virtually nonexistent) but I’m not sure what your point is. (Are you trying to say that things change from one generation to the next?) Did the smokers all die early and the next generation not want to suffer? Did they switch to cigars or e-cigs? As I stated before- if automatic weapons become illegal it’ll be harder to obtain one illegaly but it’ll still be possible for those who really want one. You haven’t explained how banning them will force anyone who already has one illegaly to surrender it or prevent additional ones from being smuggled through the open border.
You can not compare the US to other civilized countries without comparing all relevant parameters. In my opinion the judicial system here is a joke and violent criminals have nothing to fear. If you’re going to compare the US rates of violence to Somalia- let’s see what they have in common. If I had to guess I don’t think the people there have to fear any repercussions for being violent- similar to the US. If the US had strict gun rules and anyone caught with an illegal weapon was sent to prison for 25 years- no questions asked- then maybe the violence would go down, a typical homeowner would have no reason to have a weapon and I’d side with you on banning them.
You imply that the cities with strict gun controls are safer- I’m going to disagree with you on that based on what’s going on in Chicago, New York and many other Democratic run cities. And again- if someone was intent on carrying out a mass murder there are plenty of other ways to go about it- it may not be as easy but they will get it done anyway.
At this point- if you still not convinced of the validity of my opinion (not that you agree- just admit that there is a different side) I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree.
On the subject of mental illness- it will take a huge investment to try and find the dangerous ones but having the social media giants look for them as opposed to Conservatives may be a good start. Many mass shooters do post their intentions online beforehand and could have been stopped had they been reported, investigated and locked up.
In conclusion- In my opinion, the world would be a better place without dangerous weapons but banning guns is not the correct way to go about it. The place to start is to make criminals fear breaking the law (e.g. stiff prison sentences) and keeping an eye on those with a mental illness. Until then guns are a necessary evil.
You’re saying that there aren’t very specific rare scenarios where an automatic weapon in civilian hands is useful? Or are you saying that weapons shouldn’t be legalized for those reasons?
If it’s the former- I believe I mentioned a rare case where an automatic weapon in civilian hands would be very useful. If it’s the latter I’d tend to agree with you to an extent.
I’m glad to hear that you’re not delusional enough to believe that guns could disappear overnight but I think you’re delusional if you think there’s any possibility of getting rid of them in 20 years. You haven’t explained how you’re going to force criminals to hand in their illegally obtained weapons or how to prevent new weapons from being smuggled over an open border.
My thoughts are my own unless I quote someone else. I don’t know too much about the NRA- let alone enough to quote anything they say. I firmly believe that if criminals have less to be afraid of when burglarizing a residence then crime will go up (look what’s going on in the Democratic run cities that have tough gun laws). There has to be something to discourage criminal behavior and without the fear of the homeowner having a firearm there’s less to be afraid of.
You’re entitled to your opinion that we’ll all be safer if guns are outlawed and only criminals have them but please explain how it’ll make society safer.
You can’t just compare the US to other civilized countries- there are way to many parameters to take into account. If you’re going to say that Country X has strict gun controls and is much safer than the US- I’m going to ask you this: does Country X have a prison system that criminals are afraid of? I strongly believe that if criminals here were afraid of the justice system crime would drop dramatically. There’s no incentive to behave here with the no cash bail reforms and extremely light prison sentences when given at all.
If a criminal wants to get a gun in the US they’ll get it one way or another. It may be easier if they’re able to buy it legally but if not there are plenty of other ways to get it- a firearm ban will not stop them.
As I mentioned before- if someone wants to commit mass murder without a gun there are plenty of other options. They may not be as easy to pull off but that won’t stop someone intent on pulling it off.
Finally- No, I don’t think mentally ill people will disappear overnight. It may be hard to find a needle in a haystack but when they post their hate filled rants online along with their intentions to shoot up a school it makes it much easier. Instead of allowing mentally ill people to live amongst the general population at the expense of everyone else- they should be forced to get the help they need and kept away from the general public until then. I disagree with you that it’s easier to deny them access to the tools of others destruction as finding illegal weapons is like finding a needle in a haystack. Additionally there are many everyday items that can be used and misused- how are you going to keep them away from everything they can possibly use to harm someone else?
By you not answering my question you’re confirming that, regardless of how unlikely the scenario, there are uses for automatic weapons outside of a warzone.
Aside from my hypothetical scenario there’s other, albeit rare, situations where someone could have benefited from a dangerous weapon. Do you recall the motorcyclists gang assaulting an innocent driver on the West Side Highway a number of years ago? Do you think the Holocaust might have turned out differently if Yidden were armed with automatic weapons back then?
Without doing any research I’m going to agree with you that the number of people who saved themselves from automatic weapons is dwarfed by the number of people killed by automatic weapons.
I still, respectfully, disagree with you that banning automatic weapons is the right way to go.
As unlike as you think my scenario is that you refer to it as “ridiculous” an even more unlikely scenario is that all guns in the USA just disappear by tomorrow. If the US does go ahead and ban all guns- do you honestly think that those who have illegal guns will go ahead and surrender them?
Let’s say they do go ahead with the ban and forcibly confiscate all guns from registered owners- do you think the country would be safer or more dangerous as now the criminals won’t be afraid that the person they’re carjacking or burglarizing is armed? Do you honestly think the death rate would go down?
Even if the government would somehow confiscate every single fire arm and the country would be gun free- do you think that would stop mass murderers? These attacks are carefully planned out- they’re not, in general, caused by someone who woke up on the wrong side of his bed, found an automatic weapon and decided to shoot up a school. They’ll resort to truck ramming attacks or something similar.
How about social media companies change their algorithms from searching for people with conservative views to searching for people with mental health issues making threatening posts. If these people are adequately looked into and put away where they can’t harm others I think the mass killings would drop significantly.