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Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant
Health > So do you know that it’s the vaccine & Not Zinc or Invermectin?!?
A good point. Sofek medauraita l’humrah, so I took 2 different vaccines and multi-vitamins to cover multiple bases, and also moved away from hoi polloi.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantRebE, thanks for the story.
CS, if we are doing Yichus here, when my grandmother O’H was in Petersburg Empress’ school for girls (before going to college in Germany), her father arranged for a Rabbi to come and teach her when the school had their religious studies, and other Jews there joined also.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantRebE > let him suffer the consequences.
I wonder whether courts (American or Jewish) can help sort it out. Could you sue a person who is creating a risk to you and, thus limits your behavior and business? Let’s presume for simplicity: I have a store and if all customers were vaccinated, I would not need any additional measures. So, can I sue all non-vaxed people who came in for the expenses of masks, barriers, testing, air filters, etc?
There is a reason parking tickets work – a lot of small punishments are effective in preventing most of bad behaviors.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant> asinine to think that the a vaccine gives you greater immunity then natural immunity.
I respect you asking the question and approaching it with the research attitude. Could you quote what you found regarding antibody serology tests a couple of months after the COVID and after the vaccine? This will help you convince RebE to let you into CR minyan!
In addition to those numbers, there are additional questions to consider, though:
– how much COVID you have? probably best is to get your own serology test. You probably already had – would you mind sharing it with us, given that you are anonymous here?– possibly (sic!) disease gives broader protection via other mechanisms, not captured by serology
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant> immunity garnered from a Covid infection is more effective and longer lasting
Avran, I did not see such research. A reference, please? All papers I saw indicate much higher levels of antibodies after vaccine than disease. T-cell effects are harder to measure directly. Longer-term population studies might show that. Another reason disease is not considered as a pass, as it is hard to know what and how much a person had, while vaccine is a controlled effect.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant> it needs to be attacked by different ways. The fact that the Government focused only on one way, is Very suspicious
It is attacked in different ways. There are 100s of ongoing studies of all kind of medicines. Tracing teams work daily to identify new clusters and warn as many people as possible. Testing is done in many businesses to prevent outbreaks.
Still, it appears that Trump vaccine and moderation in partying are best response to Wuhan virus. Possibly, as virus rapidly damages multiple systems by the time most people get to the hospital, it is very hard to contain the damage. As we know, Hashem sends cure before the disease, the way vaccine does.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantby the way “going to work” came about in industrial age. Before that, a lot of “work” was done at home, often jointly with family members. Selling and procuring materials required travel, but not from all.
August 4, 2021 3:05 pm at 3:05 pm in reply to: Are you allowed to give Tzeddakah/charity to Non-Jews #1996974Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantAvira, I agree it is legit, especially in our days, not to learn philosophy. Philosophy used to include all sciences (I am a D. of Ph. but did not have to learn Plato, just to come up with some new math formulae). So, at Rambam’s time it was the best science available. As your example shows – Rambam learned from Aristotle, liked his general wording, connected it to relevant chazal, corrected it, and it sounds like not even always quoted explicitly.
But in our times, we have an explosion of general knowledge that is very practical and specific and not speculative. Do you think Rambam would not attend a medical school now, when you don’t have to pretend to be a Muslim to get into first in the world university/madrasa in Fes? Obviously, we don’t need Talmidei Chachamim to drop their learning and all get into math and chemistry, but we need to stay connected with the world knowledge and have some Chachamim who can know enough to be able to converse with experts. And for those who have no clue of sciences, have decency to respect, and not disparage, those who do.
for a contemporary example, just heard a Rav describing what was lost/gained from Corona and he mentioned loss of respect to Rabbis as he said “while health departments were running schools”. I think this is abdication, talmidei chachamim should havev been in the forenfront of solving problems (and some were), and those who do not may have lost that respect for a good reason. And same happens in other cases. Let’s say a Rabbi does not understand how Gemora in Sukkah compute PI, is this good? It actually seems to be the case there – that Tannaitic computation is very precise, but Amoraim do not understand the Mishna and use more complicated solutions (inside circle, outside circle).
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantIt is silly indeed to buy a Spirit ticket to go to Disney and spend money there, but otherwise why not show kids the value of frugality? And risk of spending a night in the airport can be an adventure…
by thy way, for absolute cheapest travel:
you can drive to the airport and buy Spirit tickets even cheaper without paying “online tax”. They convert part of the fare into the online tax to avoid paying other taxes on that part of the fare. With a good sized family, it pays off. If you ask nicely and mention kids, they can even assign seats for free.Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant> vaccinated don’t get as sick to end up in the hospital and die
the risk is proportional to exposure. 95% efficiency quoted from Phase 3 were under condition of “sort of” blind test – ostensibly, the subject did not know what they got [we know now that many of those who got a real vaccine felt it, but still …]. so 95% [20x] is under assumption that people behave same way. If you used to keep SD and now dance at the weddings, then your reduction is less. And may decrease with time. On the other hand, T-cells, etc seem to offer long-term protection against worst outcomes.
on a stupid side, CDC, and doctors who “follow their science”, recommends against doing antibody tests to see if antibody levels are holding because “it is not yet approved”, despite papers showing serious correlation between antibody levels and protection on average. CDC explains, in their usual amateur social engineering style, that they do not want people to see high antibody results and then behave irresponsibly. Of course, as now 50+% are already irresponsible, there is value to identify people who have low levels and are at highest risk and, thus, should be more cautious.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantlarge dollar bills were eliminated to make drug and other illegal payments much heavier. Euros are still there (last time I checked), but maybe Mexicans do not trust in them.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantwe learn that women can not stay idle at home and are supposed to be busy at something, right?
Eshe Chayil lists lots of things to do in a normal household. By now, men, with Hashem’s help, automated most of these activities. Women world over, follow the halakha above, increased their standards of cleanliness and tideness to the level that never existed in history, but still … So, if women are to only stay home and, in many Jewish families, send kids to schools and often using household help (sometimes cheap even if not very legal) – they should be doing something useful. They could teach their kids at professional level, for example. If not, then there is a question about even volunteer stay at home. [My wife did while kids were little and she was fully engaged with them].As to women who want to work outside, I agree with Gadol here, there are plenty of precedents of women working and having businesses. It is possible that some Rabbis give public advice as a desirable social policy, but that does not mean that specific individuals can not balance home and work.
Also, notice that “not leaving home often” in old times does not mean that the woman will be doing only housework. People were running businesses from their homes all the time. She could be weaving baskets, running a school, a restaurant, while infrequently going out. Being a traveling salesman (and still is) not a good job choice. Now, with WFH, we came full circle and frumme women can do heart surgery online without leaving the kids.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant> Chareidi is both Ashkenaz and Sefard.
Sefardi Charedim is an oxymoron. If they are to follow their ancestors, they would be wearing turbans. Instead, they assimilated into wearing black hats out of respect to surrounding community. So, they are Charedim eternally, but in their outlook, they are very modernishe. They would wear turban in a New York minute if they would go back to Suria. Of course, in 2-3 generations, schools will convince them that they were wearing black hats from the time of Esther and Mordechai.
So, Ashkenazi Jews who wear the same clothes as other lawyers around them are as Charedi as those Sephardim. And they would wear top hats when American Presidents will go back to that fashion.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantlike normal midwestern driver, maybe? not like normal NY driver …
Can someone look up safety metric by state? and per mile driven as Europeans drive less.There are various defensive driving skills – do not try to outrun others, stay away from huge trucks and cars with mattresses on top, do not stay in blind spot…
And then there is courtesy, some halakhic: do not overtake the bus (a number of Rabbis are quoted on that, although I take an exception when I have more kids in the car than there are people in the bus); buy a drink in the store on the highway if you are using a bathroom (R Yaakov Kamenetsky)
I also try to see how many people I can waive through while driving somewhere – the more the better, a good game for the kids. You end up coming 2 minutes later but in much better mood.
Sometimes there are hard choices – you may let someone in, but the guy behind you is fuming…
This may require a shaila..A general problem with courtesy on the road – people do not see each other’s face, so they forget that these are people, not self-driving cars. Ever tried to cut someone off and then recognizing the driver?
August 1, 2021 3:03 pm at 3:03 pm in reply to: If Nassi is wrong, how do you explain why 1000’s of older girls are stil single? #1996217Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantAvi, I am glad we do not have actuaries in charge of shiduchim! But it is already proven that married men live longer than non-married, and this was measured under current conditions – where men are older or same age as women. So, let’s not mess up with success!
So, maybe instead of forcing 15-y.o. bochrim marry eligible 20-y.o. let’s encourage men smoking less, running more, and women to feed their husbands healthier – to make our lives more “equitable”
July 30, 2021 7:24 pm at 7:24 pm in reply to: Are you allowed to give Tzeddakah/charity to Non-Jews #1996018Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantAvira, fair re: R Meir – but what was the fruit? What was he learning from Aher that he would not learn from others?
re: Rambam & Aristotle.
I am not such a boke on Aristotle, but it seems that the middle path on midos is taken from Aristotle with minor, but significant, corrections to discount Heroism/Gaava. This seems like a reasonable critical approach of keeping the fruit. It is impossible to take other than a polemic all the interpretations of Rambam that basically discount all his work. The logical conclusion would be taht Rambam would have approved burning his own books, so Rabbeinu Yona was wrong on his teshuva?!another issue on science is that it developed tremendously from the time of Gemora and Rambam. for example, Gemorah often asks for experimental proves, and science now has great protocols to carry those experiments. I would think that most Tannaim and Amoraim in our time would be scouting internet for recent medical and astronomical views. As R Twersky Z’L suggested – to appreciate Hashem’s chochma, study physiology. don’t ahve to do it in yeshiva, do it after hours.
>> catching corona, wouldn’t they also be worried about catching apikorsus
agree here too. But what is the defense: either complete isolation, that I find easier to do form corona than science, or vaccination. For kids, I see isolation working till mid-middle school, and after that vaccination – studying science/history/literature in the Torah context before they encounter these subjects without parental/school supervision.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantujm,
could you be more specific – how do modern Charedim are same as pre-haskala (medieval East European?) Jews. I think you are over-simplifying historyJuly 30, 2021 5:43 pm at 5:43 pm in reply to: Are you allowed to give Tzeddakah/charity to Non-Jews #1995992Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantAvi, I never looked into what was R Meir’s motivation to learn from Acher? Did Acher have Mishnayos that others did not? Did he have his own logical approach? Maybe he was quoting Aristotle and R Meir found it as interesting as Rambam did?
> what Pythagoras and Euclid believed?
Personalities would not matter in pure math. A proof stands on its own. But other sciences are not that simple, especially in pre-experimental times.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantCtlawyer,
refuah shleima and thanks for sharing your knowledge. Get your numerous, bli ayn hara, kids,grandkids, and other underlinks to set up text-reading software so that you can read either documents or CR, depending on your mood, and also download online classes that proliferated so much. so, by the time of your full recovery at the end of September, you’ll memorize Torah Kula by heart and will become an even more formidable debater. Refuah Shleima again.PS For those who are asking for Hebrew Name (given taht CT stands for land on the long tidal river), maybe HaDayan Ben Eretz Nahor Aruch?
July 30, 2021 12:10 am at 12:10 am in reply to: Are you allowed to give Tzeddakah/charity to Non-Jews #1995878Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantRebE Rambam was like Rebbi Meir who learned from acber but we are not on his level to learn from an atheist.
Are you quoting someone here? It sounds like an easy rationalization, you can always say that Moshe rabeinu didn’t misuse public money, but we are not at his level …
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantWhen you are offered a. Seemingly good warranty on the car you know is a lemon, you can’t take it! It is either he is scamming you, as already mentioned, BUT the other alternative is that you are scamming him! This is also not allowed, so there is nothing to hope for. Hope we will not starting looking for tirutzim on which cases you can still cheat …
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantI think there are a lot of misconceptions here re “300” years ago, or before haskala. There was mostly one Jewish community, of which a typical member was a tailor or a peddler, not necessarily learned, or looking for humros. BUT, all stayed in Jewish community, and their children were still Jewish. Modernity created a challenge where uncommitted would leave, especially when there were economic incentives. We seem to have found two ways to deal with it: learn how to confront modernity on its own terms, or create a community that is totally separate, knows Jewish law and ignore the rest of the world. Both approaches are new, there is no reason to pretend our great grandmothers went to bays yaakov, both have pluses and minuses, and I don’t think we found the full response to modernity. Those who pretend that they did, whether super modern or super chareidi are both wrong.
And, yabia, Sephardim mostly avoided haskala, so you don’t recognize all these new movements as authentic.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantYrs, list of those who allegedly moved to EY was mysterious. There seems to be some hint there – both Again and Chofetz CHaim attempted to go to Israel
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantCdc seems to be very rigid in their decision making. Recently, they first announced full unmasking without any caveat and are changing back only after delta is proven to be everywhere. With several countries on front of us on the same trajectory, they could have been more foresighted
July 28, 2021 10:05 am at 10:05 am in reply to: Are you allowed to give Tzeddakah/charity to Non-Jews #1995172Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantI asked one boke about Rambam and Muslim philosophy/science, he summarized it very nicely: Rambam was not afraid to acknowledge the truth as he saw it, regardless of the source. [I hate to say it again, the gentleman is quite a traditional Chassidish bokeh before someone dismisses my source as “MO/Reform apikoires”]. While you definitely need to be careful, I don’t think we should cope out and say that only Rambam and R Meir should be doing this, we will just skip the truth if we stumble at it unless it is pre-approved. The differentiation seem to be simple conceptually as partially outlined by Avira – we trust Jewish sources in mesorah, but we trust any source of intellectual integrity on facts and logic. See an argument in Gemora somewhere between Jewish and Greek scientists whether the world was created. Greeks seemingly had a better argument that the world always existed, but Jews stayed with the Mesorah.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantGadol, you are right. It is a sad thing that destroys society from inside. Neither vaccine nor masks are right or left wing (I am skipping the virus itself until we find out what lab it came from). In US, israel, UK, France, governments were blamed for being too restrictive or too permissive, with opposition being against just because they see an opportunity. We just need not to get caught up in to this.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantAvira, I don’t care of arguing where people should live as long it is not Cuba or China, we have bigger problems than that. I quoted Chofetz Chaim before why he didn’t go to EY to avoid making Mishna Berurah political. (He obviously cared about both groups). He also made an utmost effort to get out of Soviet Russia, and then thought that he was wrong as all Rabbis abandoned the remaining Jews… Thetr is also teshuva by r Grozdinski in 1940 Vilno right before USSR occupied and Nazis on Polish border: which Rabbis should get Sugihara visas: older ones who will be arrested immediately, or younger ones whose children will be sent to Soviet schools and be lost. What would you say?
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantEven if a child had its own board, the parent is ultimately responsible for making such an arrangement, letting every Ben, Tom, and Jerry child run around with a knife
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantRebE, you can’t fully abandon caution. Oft-quoted vaccine efficiency is based on everything else being equal. If you previous did not spend long time in closed quarters with people, and now you do, then you did not decrease yours, and community’s, risk, you simply use vaccine to rescind restrictions. Still, do not spend prolonged time in unventilated closed spaces, esp with unvaccinated people. Furthermore, if you feel so negative towards them that you do not feel responsibility to protect them, then why bother spending time with them.
To push this logic further, does the LOR feel it is OK to have in his minyan people for whose health he does not want to be responsible? Would he daven for their health? or just sanity?
July 25, 2021 9:17 pm at 9:17 pm in reply to: Are you allowed to give Tzeddakah/charity to Non-Jews #1994583Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant> We are, at times, forbidden
ok, so when you now qualify with “at times”, hopefully everyone agrees. Not sure what others are argueing, I am not so much for altruism, I am more arguing that derech shalom, properly understood, in most cases will make you do the same things as you would do out of altruism. Shalom is not a downgrade from a “real mitzva”.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantAvira > They deny the evils of …. [list of aveiros omitted]
Funny that this comedian seemingly was not guilty of the things you mention, maybe of others. Avira, you seem to be very brisk about two Rambams, but in several cases, you are not able to make hakira between different types of people, and different types of motivations, and different types of circumstances. It is OK if you want to stay and deal with Rambam and ignore borsch Belt jokes, but then you should not make rush judgments and pronouncements.
July 25, 2021 8:01 pm at 8:01 pm in reply to: Are you allowed to give Tzeddakah/charity to Non-Jews #1994568Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantMaybe relevant to the topic is Netziv’s Hakdoma to Chofetz Chaim Ahavat Hesed where he talks about Hesed being a fundamental part of the world applicable to all nations, and similar ideas in Haamek Hadavar on Yaakov and Yosef
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantAvira, and the other antiZ here, don’t feel so isolated. You sound like choni who fell asleep 70 years ago, while ruled by a government of socialists and communists… Look around at the current Israeli society: lots of religious Jews, some Z, some not, you may disagree with them on many issues, but you can’t say that Hashem wouldn’t want shomer shabbat community in EY
Then, there are traditional Sephardim who respect bet knesset and who were not part of those who hurt you 70 years ago. Add Russian Jews, people who escaped 80 years without shul, yeshivas, subsidies for being Jewish – things that you think are a must to be Jewish and some non Jews who were tzadikim enough to marry Jews in an anti semitic country, and not responsible for Zionism either, plus Arabs who would be there anyway, are even more antiZ than you. With all of them, you have a slither of commies who live in a different city, and who exist in any country except Saudi Arabia… Feel goodJuly 25, 2021 3:33 pm at 3:33 pm in reply to: Are you allowed to give Tzeddakah/charity to Non-Jews #1994493Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantAvira is using a phone that capitalize after a period. Like this. As caps are reserved in the Humash for only special occasions, Avira is too traditional to use caps where he doesn’t have a mesorah. Even if some non Jews invented the language, he thinks darkei shalom do not apply between the Jews. Rak Emes.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantCommon, what there were no takers? Sad. But whole ice cream issue is not a joke. The issue is whether other american businesses will follow in the political environment that supports it. Seems like many progressive companies are under pressure, and they feel that feds will not create problems. In unrelated news, russkies are threatening to upgrade Syrian air defense, after reportedly talking to US and getting a feeling that US will not get involved in supporting Israeli raids there.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantGh, there’s a simple way to test your fellow progressives on sincerity of their concerns about the poor: education. They should be in the front of the movement to test school performance, close non performing schools, open charters, if not vouchers for private schools. If they do not, then they care about politics, not poor people. Side note: president is proposing flat federal budget for charters among adding money for everything else, House changed it to reduce amount.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantOk, Gadol Hadorah is jus a little gaava, but are we allowed to call a person by such a derogatory name?! I believe halakha is that you don’t use such names even if the person himself uses it. So, just say “Chicago Mayor”
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantRebE >> sometimes we rely on emunah and we stop asking questions.
get it. When is sometimes? and why? A git shabbos, as you might say.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantRebE > I came from Hungary under communist rule
This is a good comparison. So, you had one year under Nazis (after Horty) and then what 10 years and Communists? (I am not comparing suffering, of course, just the length of servitude). It seems as long as people remember the previous generation, they can hold on. Did you ever met Soviet Jews from Vilno and Riga who emigrated in the 70s? They had pretty good Jewish background (they were first occupied in 1940, while most other Soviet Jews were under commies from 1918). Those who came to Israel in 1990s had 80 years of destroyed Jewish life. You can’t take the pale to the farmer if you don’t know what kosher means.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantRebE, I am not sure we argue here. Maybe I was not clear. I am for people following their minhagim and singing their .פיוטים I have an opposite problem with those who say that their 13th gate can be a substitute for the 12th particular gates and inviting those from other gates, or without a gate, to go through the 13th instead of the gate of the person who asks.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantRebE > living in EY, the palace of the King.
That speaker gave his answer that halakhot of speech – lashon hara but not only – would be something Jews find difficult.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantRebE, yes, some teich people to follow minhag of the one who asked: “we do this, and you do this”. I am very comfortable asking such Rabbis shailohs, as I know they’ll answer according to the one who is asking. See example of R Feinstein advising someone to follow person’s Rebbe, r Soloveichik, on an issue, on which r Feinstein just signed a public letter opposing that position.
The other shita – everyone has its gate, but their gate is bigger than other gates and open to everyone, is more problematic, as when many groups start claiming their gates … I am not even sure whether this shita has a history in Gemora or Rishonim, or should be considered a modernishe one.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant> how the owners lived at home
that sounds like overreach, but what about a hashgaha accountant certifying store and school business practices?
July 23, 2021 3:05 pm at 3:05 pm in reply to: Are you allowed to give Tzeddakah/charity to Non-Jews #1994165Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantIt is a hard question when someone is sneezing occasionally or all the time. The guy I mentioned at the beginning made like 3 trips for tissues during just one shmone esre (normal speed) sneezing all the way through, without even having a foresight to grab more tissues in one run. Maybe we should measure sneezing old fashioned way – in beitzim or handkerchiefs (anyone remembers those, spellchecker just did). I would say if a person runs out of one handkerchief, he needs to go home.
Other than kids at school, at shul or business meetings, I don’t recall seeing people with constant sneeze except rarely. Maybe it is a matter of minhag hamakom. We did not send kids to school when they were in constant use of tissues. My mother later admitted that she would sometimes (not often) tell me that I was coughing at night and should stay home when she judged I need some sleep and rest. She did not want me to think that school is optional.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantconfused on “Russians”, here in America, peole say “Germans”, “Russians” meaning Jews from those countries. Maybe it is different in Israel. But then when you say “1 million”, you mean all of them, so maybe you now realized that you over-reached. That’s good. Would you judge Jews coming from concentration camps for eating Treif there? Then, maybe you can be more understnading for people who spent 70 years in socialist gan eden…. Looking up research on “Russians”, Several interesting observations, some how Jews are being seen by these immigrants:
Israel, numbers by Rabbinate count:
– up to 1990 – 10-20% non-Jewish
– 40% 1990s
– 55-60% in 2000s
– out of 1 mln total, 350k are non-Jewish. This seems like a slight over-estimate, as there are some who claim to be Jewish but are missing documentation.politically. leftist researchers complain that Russians lead to Israel becoming a right-wing majority, by the way. Russian-speaking voters have 15 seats in knesset.
80% of newcomers are center-right, their children are 8% (!) more “progressive” than their parents and 25% are left-wing. 1% total voted for Meretz (is it not on par with general population?!) Yesh tikva indeed.. sounds like there are more Meretz voters in Mea Shearim than in Ashdod. 15% for BLue& White in 2019. 40% for Liberman, Likud 27%, Kulanu 6% Labor 2% New Right 3%, Shas 1.5%US data:
– US has 700K, half in NY area, 40% from Ukraine, 30% from Russia
– 60-70% in US self-identify as “definitely Jewish”, 20% somewhat, 15 non-Jewish. I think these US numbers are significant as contrary to Israel, there is no pressure to identify as Jewish. “somewhat” might be a mixture of one Jewish parents and people not very attached in general. I think these numbers are on par with generic “American Jews”
– 25% of marriages are intermarriage (only 12, same as with Americans
– for 36% religion importnat/very important part of their life
– 13% are synagogue members (all denominations), more attend without membership. 32% say religion is personal, 13% do not attend because do not understand what is going on. 8% do not feel welcomed, 11% not interestedAlways_Ask_QuestionsParticipantto the question that we discussed – report makes no attempt to separate R- and D- leaning polls. They took all public polls on realclearpolitics, 538, etc and lumped them together.
They compare accuracy by type of polling: joint online/phone polling is only 1% off, while pure online and pure live polls are 5% off. 50% of these joint polls are by one company that they do not identify, so it seems that this one company has good methodology. I looked up realclearpolitics:
final general results are Biden +4.5, and closests polls are IBD/TIPP, The Hill, Emerson, sounds like one of them is that great poll. Rasmussen biased 3.5% towards Trump, the other TEN polls are 2.5 to 6.5% towards Biden.So, no conclusion can be made about different polls in this report, except the above, because the report does not address the question. The expert who was quoted did not have any data to support in this report.
Report underestimates the level of the problem – polls showed 11% preference for Biden in October and then paddled down. So, I think, reasonable Dem voters should understand frustration of the R- voters at these polls (together with other media influences) that undoubtfully affected voter enthusiasm – given how narrow the election was (50K votes in Presidential, 50-50 in the Senate and the House)
July 23, 2021 1:38 pm at 1:38 pm in reply to: Are you allowed to give Tzeddakah/charity to Non-Jews #1994141Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantOn sneezing in general:
many people would not normally go sneezing around to shul or office before COVID. Not just moris ayn, just kavod habriyut. Cultures might differ.
publicly quoted experts say that it is generally not possible to differentiate between COVID and less harmful viruses based on external symptoms, so your friends did the right thing to go test. I am thinking it is true only one way: if you have a cold, you don’t know what it is. But I heard some COVID cough that does not sound like anything I ever heard, and especially from that particular person.Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantjackk, the report goes through a lot of stuff and is inconclusive, indeed. Their main supposition is that some of the Trump voters were under-sampled. That is they sampled Republicans in general, but not the most ro-Trump ones that also happened to be distrustful of the government, pollsters, etc. We see similar in vaccination, so this rings true. Here are characteristics that were undersampled in the polls the most when tried to re-match regression of the population data to election results by counties: solid Republican, white, less populated cases, more covid cases.
Another interesting item: a very high number of “new voters” – who did not vote in 2016. Pollsters struggled understanding how many of these voters are and what their preferences are, as they often relied on previous data to stratify voters. These new voters went +14 for Trump in Florida and +10 to 20 for Biden in many other states. There is a lot to unpack here – enthusiasm, groups that started to care, early voting. I imagine this is where suspicion about dead voters and vote harvesting will from. Some of the numbers for new voters and confirmed voters are way abnormal for Georgia and Michigan (see Table 11, for example), I did not try to understand whether this is due to their data collection or something else.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantthe bottom line of the report that polls on average under-weighted Republicans and Conservatives by 3-4% everywhere, and the final result was worse than in many years before – even as they corrected some of the 2016 errors (stratifying by education). Reagan was the last candidate to be undercounted by as much, and in other races they say delicately “worse in 20 years” with an asterisk that they only track data for 20 years, or, in blunt Trumpian language, “worse polls EVER”. Note that polls were biased towards Republicans in 1936-48 by 4-12% and after that all large outliers 2-8% were in favor of Dems (1952, 64,80,92,96,2020) with an exception of 2012 Obama (2%).
Note that most of the analysis is done on average, linear approximation, without focusing only on elections and states really mattered. So, use conclusions with care
July 23, 2021 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm in reply to: Are you allowed to give Tzeddakah/charity to Non-Jews #1994121Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantSyag, I gave you just one example where a Rav applied Hillul Hashem broadly to a person not wearing a mask. But maybe either you or other posters can help us with their definition of moris ayn/hillul Hashem.
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