Forum Replies Created
June 30, 2020 6:53 pm at 6:53 pm in reply to: Frum non profit organizations disclosing financials. #1878263
Joseph, what does your post have to do with the OP?
To expand on what CS wrote, there are websites that publish Form 990. One of them is Guidestar.
Apparently, both infections and hospitalizations have swung to lower age groups. This seems to be due to a reduction in social distancing as the economy opens up. Since younger people have a much lower mortality from COVID, deaths will probably trend lower, at least for now. The big unknown is whether the death rate will rebound as the younger people spread the virus to their elders. I suspect that will depend on how much testing is done and whether those who test positive self-isolate. Given the resistance to past COVID mitigation recommendations, particularly in some of the places that are now hot spots, I’m pessimistic.
Headline and sub-head from the well-known left wing Wall Street Journal:
Early Data Show No Uptick in Covid-19 Transmission From Protests
Public health experts say preliminary test results are encouraging; outdoor locations and masks may have helped
The article is behind a paywall, or else I’d present more here. Of course it’s too early to judge the effects of the indoor, mostly unmasked Trump rallies.
The problem with any air filtration solution is that the droplets of the person who sneezed on you won’t get to the air system before they spread the virus. That’s why the Arizona church that’s hosting the Trump rally had to back off their claim that their system eliminates 99% of the virus.
Actually, there are two continuing court cases by women who have accused Trump of impropriety, Summer Zervos and E. Jean Carroll.
Health, do you believe the more than 20 women who claim they were molested by Trump? If not, why not? Because he has such high morals and he always tells the truth?
2scents, my observation has been that there’s much less mask wearing among frum Jews than among non-Jews. Can anyone explain this?
That’s what Trump says, IIRC. It’s not normative English.
Still waiting for commonsaychel to bring proof that “the head of infectious diseases for Montefiore … disputes Dr. Glatt opinion.”
I thought you were smart enough to figure that one out, but I guess I was wrong. Obama is not my hero. Now it’s your turn to answer why you capitalize random words.
It’s pretty pointless to argue how many BLM protesters were wearing masks or not, but just to clarify my statement that many were, I based this on a google image search of “blm ptotests.”
So why do you capitalize random words?
BTW, I’m a DINO — only registered as a Democrat because where I live, the Democrat is guaranteed to win. To have any voice, I have to vote in the Democratic primary, and our primaries are closed. If we had open primaries, I’d register as an independent. I’ve voted for presidential candidates of both parties. In 2016, I did a write-in because I didn’t want to vote for either of the major party candidates.
I’m not sure what Revelant means. Health seems to be emulating his hero by capitalizing random words.
I’m not sure why CS and som1 are arguing with me. I didn’t say anything controversial. Rallies includes protests. In the pictures I’ve seen, many BLM protesters are wearing masks (as opposed to the Trump rally yesterday). And to pick a nit, although the positive rate in the tri-state area has declined, it’s still greater than 1% according to Johns Hopkins.
The head of infectious diseases at Montefiore in Dr. Liise-anne Pirofsky. She has been in the news regarding her research in the use of antibody-containing plasma to help COVID patients. All I can find that’s relevant to this discussion is quite dated, but here it is: “Having antibodies is not a license to stop the mitigation guidelines and rules that are in effect in many states,” she said. “Having any antibody is not a license today, on April 24, to break with that policy.”
Huju is correct about the death rate increasing. The IHME projections have been right on the money. When they were projecting through August 4, the curve’s slope was decreasing. Now that they’re projecting through October 1, the slope starts to increase starting July 27. They have it back over 1000 daily deaths by September 14 and over 1400 by October 1. Of course, it’s not going to drop to 0 on October 2, so when they project 200,000 deaths by October 1, that could bring us over 240,000 by Election Day, even if the number of daily deaths plateaus after October 1. Trump should be pushing for early voting.
Joseph, can you find a source for your claim that Fauci said the death toll would be “upwards of 240,000?” I’m seeing him saying it would be in range of 100K to 240K. As we see above, he said, “Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle.”
CS, could you give us pointer to the Montefiore doctor’s psak?
“Every little thing?”
120,000 dead, projected to be over 200,000 by October 1.
Highest unemployment since the Great Depression.
A draft dodger who dares to denigrate heroes like McCain and Vindman.
Dictators like Putin, Xi, Erdogan, and Kim Jong Un play our President like a fiddle.
A president who hires “the best people” and calls them losers and fools when they leave his employ and reveal his ignorance, incompetence, and criminality.
This is too easy. How about the rest of the Snopes article?
However, the Obama administration was not solely responsible for the current shortage of masks. In the intervening years, the stockpile went unreplenished as the Trump administration failed to heed indications that dramatic shortages could occur.
It’s rather strange to rate a hospital’s “majorness” based on bed capacity. Are you claiming that the head of infectious diseases at LIJ disputes Rabbi Dr. Glatt?
Health, you’re making the assumption that Trump was telling the truth when he said Obama left the cupboards bare. It’s always risky to assume Trump is telling the truth. The truth is more nuanced — you could look it up it you cared. Also, why didn’t Trump replenish the supplies in the three years between his inauguration and the outbreak? Trump seems to be stuck on the first envelope in the three envelopes joke.
Just a nit on the 1918 flu pandemic: both numbers (750,000 Americans and 675,000 in the U.S.) may be right. Remember, the reason it was so bad and traveled so far is that it was at the end of World War I when American soldiers were in Europe and traveling back home. An American who died in Europe would be an American but wouldn’t be in the U.S. In actuality, as hard as it is to count COVID deaths today, with modern medicine and modern technology, imagine what it was like then. That’s why the numbers are usually given as a rather wide range rather than as a single number.
Speaking of the number of deaths, some on the right claim the number is overstated, often based on the idea that it’s in somebody’s financial interests to claim non-COVID deaths as caused by COVID. People who study morbidity statistics say it’s understated, based on comparing the total number of deaths with prior years.
To add to what Huju said, you spread droplets when you talk or sing. The louder you are, the more droplets you spread, which is why public health experts are concerned about rallies, sports events, and religious services.
Also, there are many different strains of flu. Each year, they make assumptions about which strains are more likely to occur, and those strains are what’s in that year’s vaccine. Sometimes they’re wrong, and other strains prevail. Also, the effectiveness of antibodies declines over time, which is why you need booster shots for some diseases. For example, I believe the recommendation is that you get a tetanus shot every 10 years. If you want more information, the CDC has a webpage “Key Facts About Seasonal Flu Vaccine” that explains this stuff.
To bring it back to COVID, this disease is so new that there’s a lot that’s not known about it, including how effective its antibodies are in conferring immunity, at what level, and for how long.
Here’s what the CDC says about antibody tests:
If you test positive
A positive test result shows you may have antibodies from an infection with the virus that causes COVID-19, or possibly from infection with a related virus from the same family of viruses (called coronavirus), such as one that causes the common cold.
We do not know yet if having antibodies to the virus that causes COVID-19 can protect someone from getting infected again or, if they do, how long this protection might last.
Talk with your healthcare provider about your test result and the type of test you took to understand what your result means. Your provider may suggest you take a second type of antibody test to see if the first test was accurate.
You should continue to protect yourself and others since it’s possible you could get infected with the virus again.
If you have no symptoms, you likely do not have an active infection and no additional follow-up is needed.
If you work in a job where you wear personal protective equipment (PPE), continue wearing PPE.
If you have symptoms and meet other criteria for testing, you would need another type of test called a viral test. This test identifies the virus that causes COVID-19.
This test uses respiratory samples, such as a swab from inside your nose, to confirm COVID-19.
An antibody (blood) test cannot tell if you are currently sick with COVID-19.
You might test positive for antibodies even if you never had symptoms of COVID-19. This can happen if you had an infection without symptoms (also called an asymptomatic infection).
If you test negative
You may not have had COVID-19 before. Talk with your healthcare provider about your test result and the type of test you took to understand what your result means.
You could still have a current infection.
The test may be negative because it typically takes 1 to 3 weeks after infection to develop antibodies. It’s possible you could still get sick if you have been exposed to the virus recently. This means you could still spread the virus.
Some people may take even longer to develop antibodies, and some people may not develop antibodies.
If you have symptoms or develop symptoms after the antibody test and you meet other criteria for testing, you would need another type of test called a viral test. This test uses respiratory samples, such as a swab from inside your nose, to confirm COVID-19. An antibody (blood) test cannot tell if you are currently sick with COVID-19.
Regardless of whether you test positive or negative, the results do not confirm whether or not you are able to spread the virus that causes COVID-19. Until we know more, continue to take steps to protect yourself and others.
To test Syag’s claim that the media “are reporting lots of new ‘cases’ but stopped reporting new hospitalizations or deaths because those numbers aren’t quite scary enough,” I went to Google News and searched for “COVID hospitalizations.” I found articles from diverse sources with headlines like “Texas coronavirus hospitalizations surge 11% in a single day,” “Texas and Arizona keep setting coronavirus hospitalization records,”, “Coronavirus hospitalizations rising in parts of California,” “Alabama hits all-time high in COVID-19 hospitalizations,” “Tennessee’s COVID hospitalizations are high and increasing,” “Reported coronavirus hospitalizations soar to another new high as NC mulls next phase,” “Georgia’s COVID cases, hospitalizations on the rise as state reopens.” All these headlines are from the last 48 hours. I leave it up to the reader to do something similar for COVID deaths — I’m tired of typing.
Out of curiosity I googled this. The most interesting post I saw was someone who found she had lactose intolerance, and when she started avoiding lactose, her feet shrank. I also found this: So, your feet could be getting shorter because your arches are getting higher or because you are supinating more than you had in the past. But both of these conditions are fairly rare. The most common reason for a shortened foot length has to do with toe alignment.
If you’re concerned, why not ask a podiatrist?
Syag, then why will no reliable source say that the presence of antibodies means you’re immune?
commonsaychel, bunny suits are too hot. How would I get to the island?
Speaking of religious services and social distancing, a “bunch of” COVID cases in Union county, Oregon are being attributed to attendance at a church there. (Sorry for the imprecision, but “a bunch of” is the term used by the local Fox TV affiliate.)
From the article:
The member claims after President Trump deemed churches and other houses of worship essential late last month, the Lighthouse opened back up. But she said they had guidelines for what she had to guess is at least 300 members that attend.
“They had a handwashing station outside the door before you came in,” she told FOX 12. “People wore mask, or they should’ve.”
“They tried to social distance and stay away from people and respect each other’s space,” she continued.
But a video of a recent worship service on the church’s Facebook page shows a large group of churchgoers not social distancing.
Frumshmurda718, google “Jared Kushner and Adm. Brett Giroir, the federal official overseeing testing, wear masks at the White House during President Trump’s news conference.” Google “Fauci wearing mask.” Google “Redfield wearing mask.” In mid-May, White House staffers were told to wear masks.
In a story about Nancy Pelosi requiring masks in committee meetings:
Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA) is particularly upset by the idea of covering his mouth, telling CNN last month: “It’s part of the dehumanization of the children of G-d. You’re participating in it by wearing a mask.”
Abba_S, you say it won’t hurt to take an antibody test “so you will know.” Know what? No reliable source has said that having antibodies guarantees you’re immune. I canceled an appointment to have an antibody test because I thought a positive result might tempt me to do riskier activities than the very limited things I do now.
I agree that outdoor mass gatherings are not a good idea, even with masks. It remains to be seen how many people become infected as a result of attending BLM rallies. The problem is that protests are protected by the First Amendment. Were any protests against lockdown shut down because of the virus?
A February soccer match in Italy has been dubbed a “biological bomb” because it’s linked to the outbreak there. But indoor mass gatherings are much more risky. Trump (or perhaps his campaign) has said that he’s not willing to play to a non-packed audience. Add to that his disdain for masks, and the Tulsa rally is likely to become a superspreader event.
Joseph, haven’t you claimed that various Jewish felons were unjustly convicted and jailed?
If you can’t understand the difference between outdoor rallies and indoor rallies, you haven’t been paying attention. If you compare photos of anti-lockdown protesters and BLM protesters, you’ll notice that very few of the former wore masks, while large numbers of the latter wore masks. If you’re concerned about virus-laden droplets, stay away from crowds, whether they be demonstrators, people partying outside bars, or people attending political rallies.
It’s unfortunate that this pandemic has been politicized. I don’t think this happened with polio. People didn’t argue with public health officials. They took precautions, and when a vaccine was developed, everyone was thrilled and lined up to get inoculated.
Grandma, your caps lock is stuck.
“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” said President Trump today. Huh?
Apparently masks will be optional at the Tulsa rally, and every seat will be filled. If Trump were to wear a mask and tell all the attendees to wear masks, it would still be risky. But there’s no way he’s going to wear a mask, and it’s unlikely that many of his followers will.
There’s a big difference between outdoor rallies where many people are wearing masks and indoor rallies where I suspect almost no one will be wearing a mask. Also, even though the Democratic Party may be supporting the protests, they’re not hosting them.
I’ve agreed with you that many countries are not reporting deaths accurately. But you’re the one who said the U.S. is doing better than the European countries that have higher death rates. My point is that we’re not doing better. With the exception of the U.K. and Sweden, they’ve flattened the curve much more than we have. Our daily death rate is two to three per million. Theirs is one or less.
Having an indoor rally with screaming people in a state where COVID cases are rising, and where the main speaker refuses to wear a mask, is the epitome of stupid, especially since the vast majority of attendees will not wear masks. Moving a political convention from a state that insists on reasonable public health measures to a state that says “whatever,” and where COVID cases are rising, is stupid. In both cases, infecting large numbers of people who would be likely to vote for you if they survive until Election Day is stupid.
For the record. the U.S. has surpassed the Netherlands in COVID deaths per million. If you ignore San Marino and Andorra, we’re now #7.
I think the OP should check his spelling. I also think he’s mistaken when he says older people won’t vote because of COVID. Every voter was mailed an application for a mail-in ballot.
Abba_S, I wouldn’t worry. Here in the CR, there are more Trump fans than detractors. Judging from the polls, that’s not the case in the country as a whole.
True, Joseph, that it’s too late for the census, but he can still move to a purple state for the election.
I hit it on the nose regarding the U.S. surpassing Ireland in COVID deaths per million. We’re now number 9, soon to be number 8 when we surpass the Netherlands. But we’re likely to fall in the rankings due to rapidly rising deaths in Brazil, Chile, and Peru. Both Brazil and Chile have Trump-like presidents.
Milhouse, I’m guessing from your comment that you live in a solidly blue state. Why don’t you move to a red state where your tiny contribution to the census will swing apportionment in the direction you want? Or better yet, move to a purple state where your presidential vote will actually count?
I agree with akuperma. I participate in a Zoom Daf Yomi shiur and I just dial in. I’m usually in my PJs.
Floyd and Chauvin had both been employed as security/bouncers at a Latin nightclub. The former owner of the nightclub has said that she doesn’t know if they knew each other, since their employ overlapped only briefly. She also said that on nights when the crowd was mostly black, “He would mace everyone instead of apprehending the people who were fighting,” said Maya Santamaria, former owner of El Nuevo Rodeo club in Minneapolis. “He would call backup. The next thing you would know, there would five or six squad cars.”
She said Chauvin got along well with the club’s Latino regulars, but his tactics toward unruly customers on what she referred to as “African American” nights led her to speak to him about it.
“I told him I thought this is unnecessary to be pepper-sprayed. The knee-jerk reaction of being afraid, it seemed overkill,” Santamaria said. “It was a concern and I did voice my opinion, but police officers have a way of justifying what they do.”
Joseph, the U.S. is catching up to Ireland and the Netherlands, both of which have death rates of about 1 per million per day, while the U.S. is at around 3 per million per day. If current trends continue, we should pass Ireland in about a week and the Netherlands in about two weeks.May 31, 2020 12:42 am at 12:42 am in reply to: Empirical data: how did we handle COVID vs our neighbors? #1865934
Jains are lacto-vegetarians, but the frummer ones are vegans. I suppose in theory, the lacto-vegetarians could drink camel’s milk. Presumably there’s no problem with bugs in the vegetables they eat, so the vegan ones eat a kosher diet. Of course, they’re not makpid on bishul akum.May 28, 2020 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm in reply to: Empirical data: how did we handle COVID vs our neighbors? #1865720
Joseph, what happens when a goy converts, when a non-frum Jew becomes a baal tshuvah, or when a frum Jew goes OTD? Of course, most Jews eat non-kosher food and vegetarian/vegan goyim don’t eat non-kosher. Would ascetic Jains (who are so strict about not killing animals that they sweep in front of them so as not to step on insects) have the same characteristics as frum Jews?