Forum Replies Created
May 27, 2020 10:21 pm at 10:21 pm in reply to: Empirical data: how did we handle COVID vs our neighbors? #1865550
The title doesn’t match the OP. The title is “how did we handle,” while the OP asks how it affected us. I don’t know of a way to measure how we handled it other than through anecdotal evidence, which can be misleading. In theory, it’s pretty straightforward to answer the question of how it affected us. We just have to have sufficient testing. In NY, about 9% of the population has been tested for the virus; in NJ it’s somewhat less. I haven’t seen stats on antibody testing, and presumably such stats would be suspect because the FDA blew it and allowed bogus antibody tests for a while.
It’s hard to compare the frum community in the NY/NJ area to the non-Jews. The African American community was hit hard for a number of reasons that don’t apply so much to the frum community: they work in service jobs with a lot of contact with the public, they have worse access to health providers, and I believe they have a higher incidence of comorbidities like hypertension and diabetes.
From the White House website
Remarks by President Trump at Ford Rawsonville Components Plant
“The company founded by a man named Henry Ford — good bloodlines, good bloodlines, if you believe in that stuff. You got good blood. (Laughs.)”
Apparently Trump is unaware of Ford’s anti-semitism.May 25, 2020 12:43 am at 12:43 am in reply to: What is EY doing in fighting Covi-19 that NYC can learn from” #1864303
Joseph, you’re ignoring my point that most of those European countries have flattened the curve more than the U.S. has. If trends continue along the same path, the U.S. is going to climb in the per capita death rankings. Now it looks like Brazil is going to give those countries a run for the money, largely because it has a Trump-like populist president who has denied the danger of the virus much as Trump did in January and February.
There’s a simple explanation for Gaza’s low death toll — it’s isolated from the rest of the world. If nobody comes in, nobody gets infected.May 22, 2020 12:01 pm at 12:01 pm in reply to: What is EY doing in fighting Covi-19 that NYC can learn from” #1863557
Joseph, I said, “we don’t know how accurate any country’s statistics are.” “Any country” includes China. I also said (regarding the PA/Hamas, but applicable to many countries) that they could be “lying or simply [don’t] have robust data gathering.” I expect that countries with a free press are more likely than other countries to have accurate numbers for obvious reasons.
I have been consistently calling out Trump’s lies about testing. He cites absolute numbers. I cite per capita numbers. As for deaths, the U.S. is not in a great place on a per capita basis either. We’re #9 if you leave out tiny countries like San Marino and Andorra. The top 8 are Belgium, Spain, Italy, the U.K., France, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Ireland. All those countries except the U.K. and Sweden seem to have flattened the curve more than we have, so it’s likely they will move down in the ranking and the U.S. will move up.
Correlating COVID deaths with the political affiliation of the governor isn’t very logical. How about we look at something that’s more logical, population density? I looked at the top 8 states (actually 7 states plus D.C.) for population density. In order of density they rank as follows in terms of COVID deaths per capita: #5, #2, #7, #4, #3, #10, #12, and #1. To clarify, D.C. has the highest population density and is fifth highest in per capita COVID deaths, while New York has the eighth highest population density and the highest per capita COVID death rate.
Densely populated states tend to have Democratic governors. They also tend to be on the Atlantic Ocean. To say that they have a high rate of COVID deaths because they have Democratic governors makes as much sense as saying the virus washed ashore from the Atlantic.May 21, 2020 9:39 pm at 9:39 pm in reply to: What is EY doing in fighting Covi-19 that NYC can learn from” #1863407
Joseph, I’m not sure what you consider deceitful in Charlie’s reply, and I don’t think he was even trying to explain why the West Bank and Gaza allegedly have fared better. Not that Charlie needs me to defend him, of course.
I have a couple of possible explanations. First, we don’t know how accurate any country’s statistics are, so it’s possible that the PA/Hamas or whoever came up with those statistics is lying or simply doesn’t have robust data gathering. Second, we know that the virus was spread by travelers. Israel has way more travelers than the West Bank/Gaza.
BTW, Belarus is now four places ahead of the U.S. in per capita testing. The U.S. is now in 39th place.May 19, 2020 4:30 pm at 4:30 pm in reply to: What is EY doing in fighting Covi-19 that NYC can learn from” #1862398
hh, I had a hard time deciphering your reply, but I think you’re saying lack of vitamin D causes more infections or more serious consequences of infections. Is that your claim? Do you have any evidence?May 18, 2020 4:22 pm at 4:22 pm in reply to: Which cities in the US will have summer camp open? #1861896
“No visiting day” would make parents absolutely giddy.May 18, 2020 1:12 am at 1:12 am in reply to: Which cities in the US will have summer camp open? #1861703
I believe the Kawasaki-like illness hasn’t been seen in infants. From what I’ve read, Kawasaki itself usually hits kids up to age 5 (mean age 4), while for this new illness, the mean age is 8.
The problem is a news shortage brought about by news factories being closed because many of the news workers have been infected with coronavirus. The president hasn’t deemed news factories essential, so he hasn’t invoked the Defense Production Act.
Walmart, Target, and your local Dollar Tree sell food and OTC medications. Your local clothing store doesn’t.May 14, 2020 11:28 am at 11:28 am in reply to: What is EY doing in fighting Covi-19 that NYC can learn from” #1860654
DMB, Israel has done more tests per capita than the U.S., by a long shot. The numbers I’m seeing today are 54,277 per million for Israel, 30,017 per million for the U.S. The U.S. has been neck and neck with Belarus for weeks now.
There’s a question in my mind whether the people who get multiple tests (e.g. White House staffers who get tested daily) mess up the significance of per capita testing numbers. I suspect not, given that it’s likely that the number of such people is relatively small.May 13, 2020 5:34 pm at 5:34 pm in reply to: What is EY doing in fighting Covi-19 that NYC can learn from” #1860308
Milhouse, here are numbers I found for hospitalizations per 100,000 for different age groups. These are from the CDC, posted on April 8. Age 18-49, 2.5; Age 50-64, 7.4; Age 65-74 12.2; Age 75-84 15.8; Age 85+ 17.2.
So clearly, it’s overwhelmingly the elderly who are being hospitalized, right? No, wrong. You have to take into account the number of people in each age group. I found numbers from July 1, 2018. There were 129.58 million age 20-49, 63.16 million age 50-64, 30.48 million age 65-74, 15.39 million age 75-84, and 6.55 million age 85+. (Note that for the youngest group I’m considering, the hospitalizations are for ages 18-49, while the population is for ages 20-49. Those are numbers I found.)
If you do the math, you’ll find that about 7900 were 20-64, and about 7200 were 65+. To summarize, the hospitalization rate is higher for the elderly, but the actual number hospitalized is greater for non-elderly.May 12, 2020 11:12 pm at 11:12 pm in reply to: What is EY doing in fighting Covi-19 that NYC can learn from” #1860124
Trump is not listening to Dr. Fauci.May 12, 2020 10:42 am at 10:42 am in reply to: What is EY doing in fighting Covi-19 that NYC can learn from” #1859898
Milhouse, here’s the information that I was alluding to. It was published on May 6.
Cuomo said nearly 84% of the hospitalized cases were people who were not commuting to work through car services, personal cars, public transit or walking. He said a majority of those people were either retired or unemployed.May 7, 2020 12:11 pm at 12:11 pm in reply to: What is EY doing in fighting Covi-19 that NYC can learn from” #1858261
The latest news is that a substantial majority of those recently admitted to hospitals in NYC for COVID-19 were pretty much staying at home, retired or unemployed. They did not use mass transit. Of course, that doesn’t mean that they weren’t infected by someone (e.g. a family member) who did use mass transit. Mass transit is beginning to look like a red herring. Depending who’s riding, it might also smell like a red herring.May 6, 2020 11:45 am at 11:45 am in reply to: What is EY doing in fighting Covi-19 that NYC can learn from” #1857692
The subways are now closed from 1 AM to 5 AM for cleaning. I believe this is the first time they’re not running 24/7 for a reason that’s not weather-related (e.g. Superstorm Sandy) or strike-related. I live within seeing/hearing distance of a subway line, and I’ve noticed no reduction in service or length of trains. On April 8, the MTA chairman said ridership was down 92%, so I find it hard to believe that trains are crowded.May 5, 2020 11:08 pm at 11:08 pm in reply to: What is EY doing in fighting Covi-19 that NYC can learn from” #1857507
Several people here have blamed the subway system for the spread of COVID-19. My first reaction was, “Makes sense, but has anybody done a study?” so I googled “subways spread coronavirus.” Apparently that’s been a talking point in conservative media outlets, largely based on a paper written by an MIT economist named Jeffrey Harris. Google’s first hit was an article in Citylab that critiques the study. Here’s a quote: The study has been widely panned. Over the past week, mathematicians, infectious disease researchers, and transit policy experts have criticized Harris’ methods, warning that he fails to provide statistical evidence and ignores significant confounding factors.
Health, AFAIK you’ve never revealed your credentials in the CR. You’ve said you work in the health field, but that could be anything from an HCA on up.
Actually, I think the government would be willing to accept a cure from witch doctors if it worked. It’s in the government’s interest to end the pandemic.
Akuperma, you seem to be assuming that the presence of antibodies confers immunity. There seems to be some doubt about this.
Health, why don’t you immediately contact Drs. Fauci and Birx with your breakthrough ideaof using zinc to cure COVID-19?April 30, 2020 6:51 pm at 6:51 pm in reply to: Inspiring safe & legal Porch minyanim all over Lakewood #1855565
FYI, in today’s COVID-19 death count, NY is down from 330 to 306 and NJ is up from 328 to 458.April 30, 2020 12:29 pm at 12:29 pm in reply to: Inspiring safe & legal Porch minyanim all over Lakewood #1855331
Commonsaychel, I didn’t know I had a question. I thought I just stated some facts as best as I could. Clearly I put them in this topic (which I haven’t read) because it has to do with relaxing social distancing in NJ.
I wasn’t able to find time series of COVID-19 deaths by state (much less by county), but I think NJ is behind NY in reductions of deaths. Again, if anyone can find numbers that confirm or refute my surmise, I would be grateful.April 29, 2020 3:35 pm at 3:35 pm in reply to: Inspiring safe & legal Porch minyanim all over Lakewood #1854961
Today’s NY COVID-19 deaths total 330. NJ reported 328. While all death counts are probably lower than the true number, I believe NY includes probable COVID deaths and NJ doesn’t (please correct me if I’m wrong). NY has more than twice the population of NJ.
Milhouse, expect to get more emails from Nigerian princes.
HASC had an online Uncle Moishy performance, I think on the Sunday before Pesach.
Yserbius, Trump has already stopped touting it. I’m not sure if Trump listened to Fox or Fox listened to Trump, but they’re basically a feedback loop.
Current situation = COVID-19 pandemic in the US. I thought that was obvious.
Actually, Joseph, no country is counting accurately. Some, like Iran, are probably covering up deaths (weeks ago, there were stories about satellite images of a cemetery near Quds where long trenches were being dug). In the US, different states are following different standards. Probably people without COVID-19 are dying because they can’t access medical care or they’re afraid to go to the hospital. Very few countries have handled this pandemic well, but I don’t know of any country other than the US where it has been so politicized.
I finally came across an article about Belgium. They are assuming all nursing home deaths are from COVID-19, so their figures are skewed in the opposite direction.
One could argue that Nixon’s responsible for our current situation. Before he made nice with China, there was no trade with China, no flights to China, almost complete isolation. Of course, it’s unlikely that the situation would have remained that way if Nixon hadn’t opened up relations with China. Some other president would have done it.
Joseph, I didn’t realize you were one of the Gedolim. My apologies.
COVID is spelled with a C, not a K.
As regards the number of deaths in the U.S., at the moment we’re #1 in number, and #9 in per capita deaths if we eliminate very small countries like San Marino and Andorra. The top ranked non-tiny countries in terms of deaths per million population are Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, and then the USA. That’s assuming that every country is telling the truth (doubtful) and they’re all using the same standard as to what deaths are attributed to COVID-19 (even more doubtful). It’s interesting that we’ve all heard of the situation in Spain and Italy, but I’ve read nothing about Belgium.
I guess if you go by the name Milhouse you’re an expert on bad presidents.
Abba_S, the Democratic Convention has been rescheduled for August. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a virtual convention. But I don’t think they’ll nominate anyone but Biden.
It’s much ado about nothing. The goats in that Welsh town come every year, it’s just that this year, they’re less timid because there are fewer people around. Anyone who lives in (parts of) Monsey can tell you about deer in their backyards. When I lived in an urban area of New England, we had wild turkeys roosting in the trees. I’ve seen raccoons, skunks, and opossums in urban areas. I’ve seen wild boars in Kiryat Sefer. The monkeys in Thailand and the deer in Japan were always there, but they were well fed by tourists.
A bigger problem is the rats that used to survive on food in restaurant dumpsters and food that people put in public trash cans. They’re now entering buildings looking for food. Rats are more likely to spread disease than are any of the animals in the article (though there’s no evidence that they spread SARS-CoV–2).
GHD, although it’s clear that children who get the virus seem to be the least seriously affected, I have no idea where you got the idea that their incidence of infection is low. Could you point to a reliable source for this claim?
I don’t think any historian considers Wilson America’s worst president, although he certainly had major flaws. In fact, many historians rank him among the best. He was a relatively moderate voice regarding punishing Germany. Clemenceau certainly deserves more blame than Wilson for the harsh punishment meted out at Versailles.April 13, 2020 11:30 pm at 11:30 pm in reply to: The Future of שָׁלוֹם עֲלֵיכֶם Handshaking with Social Distancing #1849438
Couch potato, what makes you think this is the last pandemic? Even when there’s a COVID-19 vaccine and everybody (except anti-vaxxers) gets it, there’s always a chance that another pandemic will pop up. I kind of like the idea of hand shaking becoming a relic of the past. It eliminates the problem of people of the opposite sex extending their hand expecting you to shake it.
Ebola originated in Africa. There’s no consensus about the origins of the 1918-1919 flu pandemic.
I’m not Milhouse, but the harsh terms of the Treaty of Versailles are generally accepted as leading to the rise of Hitler, Y”MS.
You should be asking your LOR, not the nudniks who populate the CR.
According to the CRC (Chicago Rabbinical Council), you can take almost any medicine that’s in pill or capsule form. Check their website and click on Pesach Guide 2020.April 2, 2020 5:02 pm at 5:02 pm in reply to: Why do so many continue to ignore restrictions on gatherings and travel #1846391
Not to mention it’s a big chillul Hashem.April 2, 2020 3:54 pm at 3:54 pm in reply to: We need a Pinchas to take action to stop the magefah!! #1846378
[Getting popcorn and a comfy chair to watch the Health vs. commonsaychel match.]
yid, that’s why we have a gabbai tzedaka. You give money to him and he gives it to people who need it. There have been a number of high-profile cases of Gofundme fraud.
For an inspirational take on being alone for Seder, read “When the Lubavitcher Rebbe Self-Quarantined for Seder” on R’ Pini Dunner’s website.
I don’t get the question. Most people are home these days, where they have a convenient desktop or laptop. I can understand the question BCV (before coronavirus) or in the future when restrictions will be lifted, but not now. Also, it’s not great for your mental health to dwell on our current situation (though I confess I do so). How about preparing divrei Torah for the Seder instead of obsessing about the news? (This question is for me as much as anybody.)
user176, as the video elsewhere on YWN mentions, buildings have HVAC systems that circulate the air. Not to mention the 6 foot rule is useless if someone coughs or sneezes.
H2O2 is hydrogen peroxide, which is available at any drug store or even Dollar Tree (though I expect it’s sold out these days). It certainly not a hazardous material. The rest of the OP is equally suspect. If you google Frank Shallenberger, you’ll find that he lost his medical license in California for some pretty horrendous things, then moved to Nevada where he’s continuing his quackery.
There’s a very powerful video going around from Rabbi Shimon Freundlich from Chabad Beijing that explains why outdoor minyanim are dangerous. It just takes a little wind to blow that droplet from the guy who sneezed or coughed on your clothing. You touch your clothing, then touch your face, and you’re infected. If you google Shimon Freundlich instagram, you’ll find the video.
Of course, the bottom-line reason you should daven at home is because all the rabbonim say so.
If you eat enough garlic, it will aid social distancing.