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Syag,
here are a couple of citations.1) risk of death was approximately 60% lower among Omicron cases compared to Delta
75% reduction in the risk of hospital admission among those 60 to 69 years old
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England, UK Health Security Agency, Feb 11, 20222) Hospitalization rate by Delta 2x higher than Alpha
Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study. Lancet, VOLUME 22, ISSUE 1, P35-42, JANUARY 01, 2022
this and other articles are saying that post-hospitalization outcomes for Delta and Alpha are similar.From these, my statement needs to be corrected:
omicron hospitalization is 80% of Alpha, death rates 50% of alpha. this is for unvaccinated apples-to-apples comparison. I also suspect that these numbers may be skewed due to Omicron cases possibly having previous infections. I did not see whether this was controlled for in the paper.I mean that honest work requires time and effort contrary to the op view. Specifically, from my limited experience, you need to deal with renters destroying their sewage systems, keeping pipes frozen, parking illegally, not paying rent, and worse. Plus managing plumbers and electricians making sure they come on time and drill the right apartment. If you are smart, you can eventually get reliable workers, dependable tenants, and then do what the op suggests
It maybe excessive or it simply be subsidized in some places in an effort to make people do it more often. Hard to judge the cost with emergency operations. We don’t know how much a company spent setting up a new facility in a hurry, or even to develop a test.
If you think the price is excessive, consider it a business opportunity, and start your own cheaper.
Emes, Trump was elected as an opposition to the elite opinion. Different people meant different things, of course. Current administration is either continuing same policies without acknowledging: vaccines, china boycott; or doing something unfortunate and then acknowledging continuity; Afghanistan; or trying to publicly reversing those policies: oil, Russia leading to more disasters, or trying to spend as much as they can fighting future disasters ignoring current ones. Are you one of 30% of people who enjoy it?
Ctlawyer If YWN wants to do its own reporting fine, but of it subscribes to newswire services, it is not free to change things as you wish.
A good point. Could they have one font/color for emes, and another for sheker? Yes, we are all working on separating them, but this is mental work that we could avoid. We are all desensitized to sheker unfortunately, and bring it to our own discourse. Sheker sheker tirchok.
Rw, you are trying to build a logical argument that I am trying to understand. Unfortunately, you start with “vaccines don’t work” which is not supported by facts, demonstrated by hundreds of papers from multiple countries. I understand when you say “natural immunity” is better, for example. This is a point to which one can respond. But what is your point of saying things out of thin air, I am not sure.
Ujm, we have a disease hitting the whole world. There were pandemics in the past that destroyed empires, depopulated continents… In this case, some good scientists came up with ways to save millions of people. If you go volunteer at a hospital, help online person to recuperate, surely you will be a tzaddik. Kal vehomer, someone saving millions. Now, you are grumbling that Hashem sent a variant from which that vaccine protects, but less, and you will have to get off the couch and get another pinch. They don’t owe you anything. Go make your own vaccine, or get a CCP vaccine, or sit at your villa, enjoy the view, or develop middah of gratitude. Your choice.
jackk > can the republicans who have been fighting a war against mask and vaccine mandates stop blaming the democrats when the mandates get lifted?
I think everyone will continue exploiting covid for political reasons whether we like it or not. Start by repeatedly praising Trump administration for vaccine development and hope that he will respond in kind.
Note that we are doing worse under the D- administration. I have 9 developed countries on my list including US. As of Feb 2021, US was 3rd worst on deaths (UK, Italy were worse), 15% higher than the median. Starting from then to now, US is 2nd worst (after Poland) – 60% higher than the median for that time period! US and Poland – only ones with more deaths in 2nd year than first.
Vaccine doses – again, 2nd worst, only Poland worse.
Excess mortality – 2020 Spring – lower than others; winter 2020 – about same; Sep 2021 – Delta – higher than all others, including Poland.
So, bottom lines, if you can influence any democrats – try to affect what your leadership is not doing instead of fighting political battles. Saying right slogans does not help much.
jackk, I think you need to separate between those who oppose mandates on philosophical principles and those who simply rant against any public health measure from their mothers’ basements.
For the first group – as of now, I think, 85% of the US workforce is vaccinated. So are retirees. So are many college students. So, who is left? unemployed? gray economy? illegal immigrants?
Ohevet > Why call those who do want boosters- derogatory names. That isnt the Torah way.
While I agree with your sentiment, I am not sure these posters care much about Torah way. They would jump on any posting about Fauci, but when I’ve asked them repeatedly what their sources are, what posek approves such behavior – I don’t think I ever saw an answer. I am not sure what brought them to a Jewish site.
RW, I am not sure why this is a laughing matter, whatever your convictions are. Are you laughing at Hashem who sent the disease? Surely, 4 boosters are better than 3 diseases.
jackk, Chagigah is also talking about 3 simanim of a shoteh:
walking at night by himself (putting himself in danger for no reason and, maybe figuratively, staying in the dark from facts)
sleeping in the cemetery (not accepting norms of behavior?)
tearing clothes apart (refusing bodily protection and again behavioral norms)Also people with foul odor are exempt – not because of themselves but because they are annoying others.
still, I don’t think we will have vaccination clinics at Beis Hamikdash. Just once during yomim norayim – mi b’magefa …
HaKatan,
I think your comparison of status of Jews in EY and US suffers from observational bias: in Israel, you see non-observant Jews as a group, and they are interacting with the observant on daily basis and react to a friction of shabbat/kashrus in their daily life. In US, you see them only in the news and most are quietly disappearing without coming to bother you. It does not mean that they are in a better shape. I think it is opposite – non-religious Israelis are always one step away from stumbling into a shul, or into an observant colleague and learning something, without a danger of immediate intermarriage.R Schach cared about those Israelis and thought that Hashem cared: he writes that Arab anti-Semitism was min hashomayim, Without it, early Zionists would have gone to U of Cairo and Beyrut and intermarried.
HaKatan, you are using a hyperbole when comparing our current situation to galus evsektsia, or you do not know wekk what R Wasserman and others faced. Chofetz Chaim was later lamenting that he ran away from Soviet Russia – he realized that all Rabbis who left for Poland and Lita saved themselves but abandoned the rest of the Jews: remnants of whom came recently as “soviet Jews” that includes Lieberman. Whatever the damage the latter is causing to the observant community in Israel – he moved to Israel; he cares about it; his son is observant. He is more successful, Jewish-wise, to 90% of other Jews who disappeared in Russia physically and spiritually. And he may even help Yidden in ISrael to learn how to earn parnosah and become independent of Zionist government. Gam zu l’tova.
Given that YWN probably has a contract to receive those news and it is healthy for the tzibbur to get news about the world and appreciate Yad Hashem everywhere, maybe they should simple edit those “news” to delete “opinions” from them.
Avira,
I agree with you that being rachman to the cruel with lead to the opposite, etc. And have no problem with your example on competition and innate desire to defend. I don’t think though that the choice is usually that sharp. I often see gratuitous rudeness as an expression of Judaism, when one could simply discuss the underlying issue instead of focusing on personalities.Mussar teaches us to verify personal biases. Example: R Meltzer was not sure whether to write a recommendation to a student. He wrote it and then threw it away. Why? He was afraid that a consideration of saving time/effort was affecting his decision. If such a refined person questions his own judgment, so should we. So, if I or you have a tendency to judge people or groups of people, then you need to double-check before coming to a conclusion.
jackk > In fact, there are many famous Roshei Yeshivas who still are very compliant with all the policies to protect themselves.
this is, for some reason, not well publicized. I learned about Ponevezh RY position only when he showed up in person for the first time in front of fully vaxed students with full height partition. Maybe I am reading wrong publications, or YWN caters to the audience ir it is “man bites dog” news.
2) When did Republicans decide that Public Policy is a ” let’s make fun of all the rules ” issue?
When did they attribute public safety policy to power grabs and population control?We need to come to the grip with universal right to vote and the fact that half of the people, gasp, have IQ less than 100! Both on the left, right, and the middle. So, politicians will be getting their votes and exploit any weakness they see. Kamala was attacking vaccine before it was created – because Trump was advertising his efforts and she needed to blunt it.
Syag > crickets
I apologize for stepping away from the screen!> If parents were found to be inflicting these types of damage on their kids, the authorities would have been called.
I hear same sentiment from coworkers who have kids in public schools and they are waiting for the day to take masks from kids, indeed. I do not know what is the right balance there. I resolved the issue personally with kids learning online, so they are least masked and vaccinated in the whole country; gave others info about online options; lobbied my local senator to increase public online options (he eventually said that local interests do not allow); and I consulted a couple of schools on doing ventilation (maybe more important than masking), not sure how public schools handle that.
As to those in schools, I am not sure what is the damage to kids form masks, you probably know better. Kids are known to be resilient in general, and I often see kids wearing masks with more skills than their parents. And I am sure there are kids that were borderline before and get fully out of control now. As you are saying, hopefully this is water under the bridge and things are getting better now.
jackk> How about the 3,000 health people today who will catch covid and die within a few weeks ?
this may not be the case. Possibly, people who are dying now are the ones who were infected several weeks ago at the Omicron peak. So, some opening up policies may be based on the forecasts, maybe optimistic but reasonable. Some of the policy changes are not immediate but 2-3 weeks ahead.
Gadol > These sad individuals typically were angry underachievers prior to Covid and now have a “new” issue to to grab
Not in my observation. Many were for me fellow daveners, who did not exhibit more psychological problems than others, while consuming cholent. Maybe it is just because I did not know them well enough. Most people whom I considered in high regard behaved reasonably. There is also a category, similar to what you describe, generally people you can share cholent with who might gripe about something unreasonably, but not considered danger to people around them. I encountered one at a simcha, where there was a specific request to only have vaccinated people (due to a medical condition of the baalas simcha, that many might not have known about) – that, at the time, meant no children. Hundreds of people followed the request, while generally not adhering to any precautions, including ambushing the lady who was trying to avoid that. Then, I see a family with a kid. After consulting baalas simcha, I kindly informed them, thinking they can take the kid home 10 minutes away and not miss anything. They angrily replied – we did not notice that on the invite and moved hurriedly towards the buffet.
BY > if Always Ask Questions determined this estimate by fiat, it must be true. So I will not ask any questions.
I can answer them anyway: most similar countries have 1/2 death rate. I am excluding New Zealand, etc, just looking at UK/France/Germany overall over the term of pandemic. I am not sure it is right. Maybe US has higher rates of obesity, etc, but 10% difference in vaccination and effect of non-vaccination on deaths seems to be a direct connection.
> I will just point out that the most heavily infected states in the us are the ones with the most restrictions and vice versa.
here are top states by total death rates, your statement seems to be factually incorrect:
Mississippi, Virginia, Kansas, West Virginia, South Carolina, Arizona, Arkansas
Maybe you got this impression by early observations: early hit states were on the East Coast, got most cases, got restrictive policies, people stopped dying. People in Kansas were hit slower, did not pay attention, and continue dying.>> seems to me the covid was just a “practice run” for what they have coming next down the line.
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>> y I was on the train wo a mask and these crazy masked people gave me dirty looksSyag, are you comfortable with the guys like that?
Syag > Are you under the impression the omicron pandemic of today is the same in regards to danger and risk of death as the 2020 coronovirus? This is a yes or no question.
yes and no :). Here is what I understand: Omicron is almost as severe to a non-immune person as the original Wuhan, but less than Delta. As Omicron infects those with previous immunity (both vaccine and disease), there way more cases, most of them light. It seems to be almost over in the areas where most Jews live. While cases fell, the sick people were not all cured. Total death numbers for US in the omicron wave are as high as September Delta wave. And, continuously, US is one of the worst among Western countries by that sad statistics. That is not just “with covid” as lagging “excess deaths” indicate.
But back to my sentiment, you are right, it is primarily towards people who were negligent, or rebellious, in earlier times. It is more complicated now – people had vaccines or were sick already, and everyone is already tired of this, etc.
ujm,
two notes:
1) this is for wuhan vaccine v. omicron, and large number of antibodies are needed to defend against a different variant as each antibody/vaccine encounter is less successful. Omicron vaccines are currently in phase 3 testing.2) people generally acquire long-term immunity (T-cells, etc – beyond antibodies circulating in blood) to coronaviruses by encountered them multiple times during childhood. That is, we still get infected by “common cold” but with no serious damage.
So, presumably and logically, every encounter with either covid or a vaccine moves us towards that goal. According to many, that now include CDC, these encounters need to have some time between them, like two months. You surely want first several encounters to be vaccine and not covid to avoid possible damage. British results on side effects show 2 case of myocarditis/million for both Pfizer 2nd dose and booster, so no increased risk. So, boosters seem to be not controversial at least for population 40+ y.o. So, 4 months is too much, but presumably 6-12 month separate boosters (esp if tuned for the current variant) will make most of the adults fully safe from the “endemic” covid.
RW > I personally had some dope take a picture of me
R Heinemann warned early about trying to go against public policies, even in perception. He was asked whether it is OK to have a minyan consisting of several families, each in his own yard which would technically compile with the lockdown rules. The question seemed to be out of concern whether this is considered a minyan, as for him it was clearly complying with the letter of the covid law, but the answer was – someone passing by will not see the difference, and as a result of your action someone, somewhere, will get denied a ventilator during a shortage.
You are free to disagree with this psak, of course, but could you please provide your halakhic sources for behaving as you want and blaming the world for possible outcomes.
Goldilocks > Let’s all face up to the facts:
You are probably right about entrenched opinions, and it is a sad fact that people follow “beliefs” here rather than trying to find out information. I think psychologists call this “crystallization” – early on information trumps on the further one. Does anyone have an insight what was typical initial information that caused people to conclude that masks are worthless? Was it that they didn’t like it first and then found justification? something they read or heard from friends? something they first “figured out” themselves, like “a small virus will not be stopped by a large filter, obviously” ….
the second interesting part that anti-maskers often point fingers to cloth or even surgical masks –
see they don’t work, only K/N-95s do! I would think that they will then start wearing K-95, but not their thinking seem to stop right there – “see they are wrong”.Good progress on the selection. President said that he read on “about four nominations”. It is an approximate number – maybe two, maybe six. He either does not remember or is not sure of the count. Maybe some had double names. He also said (paraphrasing) that he has no political motive in selection, as long as the gal is a solid liberal.
Syag, I saw some serious academic anti-maskers at Cato referring to the same Bangladesh study we discussed here as a more authoritative one among a long list. They report it though in a distorted way, like “only 0.0x reduction”, when relative reduction is 20% … I emailed a polite technical message to one of the authors with a PhD and a Harvard affiliation but did not hear back.
Based on this and other similar readings, I dare to say if you were reading secondary sources that quote scientific articles in a serious-looking way on such a hot topic, you may be fooled (either way, depending what you are reading).
Putting aside countries that are different in geography, demography, and culture, US is doing 2-3 worse than comparable countries – Canada/UK/Germany/France/Israel in terms of death and sickness. As Us is edging on 1 mln of deaths, we can estimate that 500,000 of them are due to leadership and population behaviors. So, you can continue believing in strange science from some websites, but we are obviously doing _something_ wrong – despite having a lot going for us: large territory, larger houses, more driving than public transit, vaccine and medical developments …
This might be a combination of – bad medical practice in the above places; large nursing homes; low vaccination rate (10% below similar countries); obesity; but still a lot left to behaviors
Some say that this is a side effect of American independent streak and this might be true. This might be an excuse for an Alabama or Chicago downtown behavior, but Yidden should know that middos should be controlled by intellect. For me, the mass denial after witnessing bubbies, zeidies, and hoshive Rabbonim dying, is mind-boggling.
Avira > there is no issur of hotzaas shem ra/lashon hora/rechilus on non jews.
I like these technical discussions trying to justify lies, distortions, violence, and pure ignorance. I was not aware that when Hsahem called us am segula and kadosh there was an asterisk with a list of exemptions.
Avira > there will never be a persecution drom Germany…
Indeed, when Fritz Haber was visiting Atlantic city in ~ 1910, he was shocked to see the sign “no Jews allowed”, even as his hosts explained that this is just for East European Jews, not for German professors like you. He replied that he never saw anything like that in Germany.
Charlie, thanks for the history. From a longer perspective, interesting to note how government role in economy of creating markets by, inter alia, protecting against monopolies, morphed into government monopoly in so many parts of economy, which is much harder to fight. From your description, Brandeis would be a reaganite in our times
One of the problems with “social media” is that they take total control of the information the reader is getting. The reader gets feeds of news based on what the app knows about the reader and shows whatever is expected to glue the eyes. Other sources do similar with catchy headlines, etc, but at least you know the source and what you expect from them. So, YWN and old USENET, AOL, etc were “forums” in a sense that you freely selected what to read and were able to easily switch off from a topic.
RW, I apologize, I was sure your covid information sources looked like coming from social media. Sorry if I imputed wrong. I asked several times, I don’t think you replied, so I made an assumption.
I agree on the destructive nature of it. The main reason seem to be that the “recommendation” algorithm is optimized to keep eyeballs on, so people get confirmation on what they happen to think at the moment, rather than multiple information sources that make you more education. Almost like R Yohanan when he was sent a hevrusa that agreed with everything instead of Resh Lakish who argued.
Kuvult > The only time Jews faced a real threat was when it was backed by a powerful govt.
The most famous Pogrom was Kishniev.The definition of “pogrom” is not just random violence, but violence supported by the government. If Jews were to try fight back, police will join against them. That is what it was in Russia, and not B;H currently, as you are saying.
RebE, celebrate this as your personal purim!
> Considering the state sanctioned pogroms
> you are near an active volcanoWhy are you so over-the-top? If you don’t appreciate all goodness that Hashem gives you in current EY/US/UK/Canada/AUS – then you H’V calling His bluff?! It is fine to worry about future, but enjoy the good weather and use it to learn/do mitzvos.
RW,
are you sure you follow your own wise advise? A lot of your medical opinion sounds like coming off the meta or something. I a not sure what “good” is there, I only use linkedin.to clarify: there is an inyan of zerizus in performing mitzvos:
You are called somewhere – run to do that.
Another issue my Rov taught: you are irate that someone is taking your makom kavua? Come earlier.Ad kan? as long as it is safe. Kohanim used to compete for jobs until someone got hurt.
I am not rejecting a possibility that things can turn sour for Jews at any place/time, but right now if you cross the bridge from Brooklyn into America and avoid several cesspools, you will be OK.
edited
okay2 > everything is actually from Hashem and Litova.
a good point. Maybe Meno did not notice that he did an aveira that morning, maybe slammed the door and woke up a widow on the way to the minyan and she is sad remembering her husband going to shul early – so maybe you were destined to stumble in your hagbah that morning.
YS > prefer that Biden focus on meaningless external things like gender and race
I agree – I hope he will be busy doing supreme nomination for months instead of pushing more trillions out the door (they still did not start working on building what they voted for last year, I guess it is good). The fact that he might not have bandwidth for Covid and Putin viruses is ore worrisome.
Was their restraint genuine or useful to advance new Deal? Obviously, total restraint is the same as eliminating one element of checks & balances from the federal government, especially during “progressive” era.
Resign as a gabbay, appoint the complainer as your successor, complain about him in CR.
Gadol, exactly. Except Jews are more advanced. We don’t really have traditionalists like Thomas. As we discussed here many times, most Jewish groups are doing things differently now than centuries ago – nobody wore black during Gemora times except in the act of committing a sin (Moed Katan); 400 kids studied in an only Volozhin yeshiva 200 years ago, etc. But, similarly to Thomas, the latter “innovations” sound less like innovations.
On a more theoretical level, there is a difference between “originalism” in interpreting Torah and interpreting a humanly produced contract.
Gabbai to the newcomer: Kohen? no, Levi? no, shishi.
I was once asked by a gabbai mumbling: kohen? Me:no. levi? no. isroel?
He probably did this automatically just to finish the list, but the question sounds offensive – is he suspecting me of being a mamzer or an akum?!
So, I answered “no” just to look at his face. Hope he was more careful after this.CTlawyer, this card system is not secure enough and will be forged/gamed/hacked. There should be a two-factor identification system. Maybe mail a password home before shabbos.
R Salanter had a similar situation when he had a chiyuv and someone else had a lesser chiyuv. He insisted on the other guy going first, commenting “my mother deserves I do this mitzva in her honor”
Maybe the difference is that Thomas (as I understand it) holds by a judicial philosophy that just happened to be “right wing” as much as it does not allow innovations by judicial fiat and requires Congress to actually vote. At the same time, liberal justices need to find a basis for each of the new interpretations they are voting for. This comes as much more naked partisanship.
Next time run faster, rather than waiting to finish chewing the gum.
Avram,
I think mandates is a manufactured political topic. When Trump is booed by crazies for suggesting vaccinations, he can retort that he is against mandates. Note that in Israel, right-wing government was running public policy and were criticized by lefties. It is an unfortunate side-effect of democracy that politicians are using every issue to their advantage. USA lost 2x more people comparing with similar developed countries, mostly due to slow government and inability of the society to focus on what is important.