Yayin Yashan B'Kli Chadash

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  • in reply to: Solution to the Shidduch Crisis #2088731

    I’ve seen the figures 4.2% given for chareidi growth rates in Israel. (Growth rates as it pertains to shidduchim may differ slightly from growth rates on a society wide demographic basis, being as the only real numbers that are to be compared are the number of children born in one year to the number of children born X number of years later. For example, if 90% of a society gets married, and the statistical growth rate is 4%, the actual relevant growth rate is actually 10% higher than that figure, being as the people that never got married drag the numbers down but don’t actually have any relevance to the number of people entering the quote unquote shidduchim pool, which are the kids from the families that did get married.) The number for Ultra Orthodox population growth rates in the USA according to some studies has been pegged at about 3.6%. In a vacuum, given the 5% birth rate gender disparity, this would call for a 17 month age gap on average to even out the numbers. This is in fact approximately the average age gap in Europe and Israel, and there is much less of a perceived crisis there. In communities like the Chassidim in North America where the girls are on average the same age or a bit older, there are too many boys (due to the birth rate disparity).

    You bring up a good point with OTD rates (boys being more likely to be disabled or deceased is not so relevant to our community). It’s hard to get numbers, but i have seen statistics that a solid 1%-3% more boys (which is a huge chunk) are what would be considered “OTD” than girls. Again, this depends on definitions of OTD.

    There are plenty of other factors to be taken into account, such as developmental delays, personality disorders, and major mental health disorders, and what the prevalence rates are for each gender, and much more. There’s a myriad of different factors that need to be gone through. All I’m saying is that an overly simplistic “There’s 5% population growth, so for every 100 boys born in 2000 there’s 115 girls born in 2003, and that’s the answer to why there are issues with shidduchim”, is ignorant of both the actual math and the plethora of other factors at play that someone seeking to drive meaningful change would need to investigate.

    in reply to: Solution to the Shidduch Crisis #2088313

    GH: Not sure what you define as a marriage or a family, but I’d set the bar a bit higher than just engagement in procreational relations. There are plenty of people that share core values and life visions that would make them compatible to other people, were they willing to learn to respect others that may have minor differences than them, be willing to put in the work to communicate (as is necessary in every marriage), and not be hung up on their preconceived notions on exactly which boxes a spouse needs to check off to be considered a respectable shidduch (whether it’s familial wealth, prestige, parental employments, prominent pedigree, number of years learning, exact heights or physical profiles, exact acceptable occupations, exact backgrounds, or so much more).

    When hopes and aspirations are code words and romanticizations of unrealistic entitlements and expectations, then yes, people should grow up and be ready to work themselves to build a life together and to learn to respect others instead of waiting for everything to be delivered on a silver platter.

    Physical and intellectual attraction is also overblown. You need to find the person pleasant looking and to spend time with, and can’t think of them as revolting or an idiot, and you need to be able to respect them. However, you shouldn’t need a model or a trophy spouse, neither physically nor intellectually, nor should they need a prestigious position or to have a venerated reputation as top of the line in whatever society in your circles aggrandizes. He or she doesn’t need to be the king or queen of the world to be king or queen of your world.

    in reply to: Solution to the Shidduch Crisis #2088208

    The age gap theory is complex and nuanced, and needs to take into account a myriad of factors. A simple statement, for example, of something like the below, is factually incorrect on multiple accounts, and also fails to take multiple crucial factors into consideration. “The math is very imple and you can do it yourself. If the population grows every year by some percentage, say 5% for example, then in 2021 if there were 100 boys and 100 girls born (assuming approximately the same of both), so in 2022 there will be 105 boys and 105 girls born and in 2023 110 or more boys and girls each born. If then the boys and girls marry at close in age there are equal numbers for all. If the boys from 2021 marry the girls born in 2025 – there are more girls so not enough matches.”
    This writer only mentioned 2 factors – population growth rates (5%), and male to female birth ratios (1:1). Both numbers mentioned were completely wrong. The math was correct, but the data was quite wrong. In addition, there are a large number of other factors that would need to be taken into account to factor for how many boys of a given age group would be compatible to marry the number of girls in the given age group.

    It is hard to avoid the fact that there will be a degree of a mathematical imbalance. However, a careful calculation of the numbers will still reveal a marked discrepancy between the differences that should be there and the reality of the situation the way people are perceiving it. It would appear that there are many more factors than simply age and demographics to be taken into account.

    A more accurate statement may be “There is a noted discrepancy between the particular profile boy being sought by girls of a given demographic and age group, and the availability of the number of boys fitting that profile”. However, there may be a large number of boys available that do not fit this exact criteria that are eminently marriageable and would make wonderful husbands and fathers that are being written off. The solution may well be an adjustment of expectations, rather than a changing of the system to try to satisfy these unrealistic expectations.

    The Cherem deRabbenu Gershom conversation is a bit far fetched too. There are much simpler answers to the crisis, that would require a bit of maturity instead of a complete transformation of the marital and familial structure of our society. If we can’t convince litvishe girls to be willing to date wonderful chassidish boys, or various other great profiles that they refuse to consider, do you really think they’d be willing to date as a second wife? They would need to really be sold on the status symbol of the prestigious husband to be willing to be a second wife as long as they can be associated with his illustrious brand.

    In general, that underlies a major factor in the shidduch crisis which is 100% real – that people are looking for a certain picture perfect image that they consider societally acceptable and pleasing, as opposed to a spouse that they can have a marriage and a family with. 40 days before conception, the Bas Kol may have delineated the spouse, but it didn’t necessarily include the whole package deal that isn’t necessary for a successful marriage but people still insist on. When we’re looking to solve this crisis, the entitlement and education crisis may be the real core issue to work on.

    in reply to: shidduch probability #2039771

    23 year old male law student? Depends what particular demographic you’re targeting, but should be a desirable catch with plenty of options. I would be very surprised if he doesn’t have lots of great girls to date.

    in reply to: Shidduchim – why so hard? #1872687

    @saulred Can you please email me? You sound like an amazing person, and perfect for someone I know. Email address is aw10146 at gmail dot com . Thanks. (Hope mods let this through.)

    in reply to: Shidduchim – why so hard? #1872575

    Any way to contact someone from here? Either via PM or a mod. Thanks.

    in reply to: Should I run from this guy??? #1100036

    So anyone who was brave enough to go for anger management and admit it is assumed to be a sociopath?

    in reply to: Frum,Yeshiva working boy #1085967

    I think this is an exceedingly small group (boys supporting their family), and there is usually a story behind them. However, I think that this theoretical group contains the most eligible boys for marriage, being as they have a mature outlook of life and dealing with its challenges. Your average working boy doesn’t fit into those category, however. I’m not saying anything against them; this thread just isn’t discussing them. Any boy that fits into the category that we are discussing should be more than happy to go back to learning, if the girl had a decent job and he doesn’t have to support his family.

    in reply to: You don't have to finish the bottle #1082296

    Now if you would have left that half a shot there, in three years you would have had Glenfidditch 18.

    in reply to: #1075802

    How can anyone with yiras shamayim shower more than once a week? Think of the bittul torah! Try it, it won’t kill you. (Although telling someone to try it might constitute trying to figure out someones identity, being as it will be pretty noticeable that the person didn’t shower in a week; and would therefore violate cr policy.) You would be surprised how many purple take two or three showers a week, with no one the wiser.

    in reply to: Could a Holocaust ever happen is the USA? #1083118

    Our aveiroz have a lot more to do with the equation than the political atmosphere.

    in reply to: Pigeons and Hepatitis #1075321

    There is a difference between the segulos in the gemara and the refuos.

    in reply to: Pigeons and Hepatitis #1075317

    The divrei yitzchak supposedly brings a source from the gemara. I got the sefer, but was unable to find the piece. For all those who said that you are suffering from mental disease for thinking about it, our that is darkei emori, you’re going to have to answer for calling the taamei minhagim those things. Maybe think before sticking your head between the lions. (There is an article by Fred Rosner in the NYS Journal of Medicine 1992:5 titled “Pigeons as a remedy (segulah) for Hepatitis”. He actually cited a lot of relevant information.)

    in reply to: Going to EY for a date #1077117

    From lag baomer to yom yerushalayim is a pretty long date. You may as well just say to move there, and name every mitzvah hanoheges baaretz; instead of yom yerushalayim, of all things!

    in reply to: Pigeons and Hepatitis #1075300


    My teacher always called me “Quiet!”.

    in reply to: EVERYBODY READ THIS!!!!!! #1072658

    35 mph isn’t quite speeding like a meshugana. And people shouldn’t be walking in middle of the street. 25 mph is excessively slow. Almost every city in America has local speed limits around 35 mph. So unless you’re calling them all “speeding tow trucks on a rain slicked highway” (Can you imagine someone going so fast on a highway? 35 whole miles per hour?!?!?), calm down the rhetoric.

    in reply to: YOUR TAXES ARE DUE!!!!!!!!!!!! #1072398

    Fifteen more hours (to file your extensions).

    in reply to: You in One Word #1209353

    The exercise is not supposed to help you introduce yourself to others; as much as to introduce yourself to yourself. It raises self awareness when you have to think what your main essence is.

    in reply to: Divorced Women Face Higher Heart Attack Risk #1072714

    What about women who’s marriages are failing but stay with them anyways? How are those numbers? (In general, married people do better socioeconomically than divorced people. I don’t know how that impacts the statistic.)

    in reply to: Bircas Hailonos!!! #1072258

    Three are dozens in Brooklyn. Just search for the listing, someone made a compilation. (I think I saw it in the newspaper, I’m assuming its online.) I usually do it by one on avenue L and east tenth. There’s a prominent spot on avenue O and east tenth area. Sign in front and multiple trees. All this info is also in the listing, so I know I can post it.

    in reply to: Reporting Abusers #1093587

    Ahh. I love witch hunters. Easy way to lose your olam haba in one shot; just hang someones picture on the wall. I wouldn’t bid much on this persons olam haba if it was on Ebay.

    in reply to: Parking Tickets- Innocent Until Proven Guilty? #1073015

    To be fair, the mini-meter system is the best thing to happen for fighting parking tickets in a long time. (Good things tend not to happen when it comes to fighting tickets).

    in reply to: Practicality on the Palestinians #1094210

    No Meir Kahana loyalists mentioned nuclear bombs yet? And to think that Boruch Marzel almost made it into the Knesset.

    in reply to: Why it Takes Some People a Year or Two To Comment on a Thread #1215854

    Neither do I, that’s what I wrote. 🙂 I tried to write rules, but my keyboard knew better. Sorry.

    in reply to: Is chametz which survived Passover with nonobservant Jews kosher? #1090486

    All Jews have an equal status as Jews, regardless of level of religious observance.

    in reply to: Why it Takes Some People a Year or Two To Comment on a Thread #1215851

    Its actually in the cr rule thread stickied on top; that you should check if there is an existing thread in the subject before starting a new one. So your question is really who listens to tiles. To that, I have no answer.

    in reply to: Reporting Abusers #1093573

    If you are ever in a situation in which you ate considered a mandated reporter and halacha doesn’t allow reporting, you are mechuyav to leave the country. Quite a nisayon.

    in reply to: chess #1071140

    Chess isn’t easy or hard. It depends on who your opponent is.

    in reply to: Reporting Abusers #1093551

    If you report someone to the police in a case which you are not entitled to do so, the din is hashkem lehargo. It doesn’t say that about many things. The role of the government is not to provide justice, but to protect society. If no protection to society would come from reporting this guy, is forbidden to report it. (I can already hear the next poster saying that prosecution protects society by dissuading other potential wrongdoers. For that, you have no right to use this guy as a korbon.) Remember, you are gambling with his life (and yours, being as you have a Din Rodef.) That’s not something to play games with.

    in reply to: What is your weird family minhag on Pesach? #1071369

    Writersoul: my grandparents did.

    in reply to: get rid of smart phone #1072524

    ZD: do you want zahava growing up with unlimited unfiltered internet access?

    in reply to: get rid of smart phone #1072475

    Zd: that’s the third time you tried to divert the thread from the issue at hand. Three strikes and you’re out.

    in reply to: Satmar levush #1070533

    Boruch mechayeh hameisim. Welcome back kj chusid. (I see you got a revised subtitle.)

    in reply to: What is your weird family minhag on Pesach? #1071364

    We have a weird minhag on Pesach not to call people crazy for their chumros. The rest of the year, anyone more machmir is fanatical and crazy, and anyone more meikil is a goy.

    in reply to: $10,000 shidduch offer #1072961

    For that price, you can donate $10,000 to the needy for Pesach and register on craigslist. You may not find your soul mate you were looking for to build a bayis neeman beyisrael, but you’ll probably have fun. Or you can deal with a real person that actually knows what both sides are aiming for in life. The fact that their goals match on paper means nothing. All five people to describe yeshivish, and you’ll get five different descriptions. A search engine just doesn’t cut it.

    in reply to: ———–Reading Between the Lines————— #1070562

    Yiftach bedoro kemoshe bedoro.

    in reply to: get rid of smart phone #1072466

    There’s an old saying in yiddish (I’ll say it in English) “She says the daughter but means the mother”. Everyone knows that the problem is as bad for adults as teenagers and kids, but it’s more comfortable to talk about the kids.

    in reply to: The Wicked Son #1070524

    The haggadah is talking about a missionary. First save what you have, them fix what’s broken. Your “ben rashah” today has nothing to do with believing in Hashem or not. His problem is emotional pain, so that’s what contemporary gedolim tell us to work on. The concept of a maskil is almost non existent in our generation. People in kiruv will say the same thing. People don’t become religious because they rationally decided that there must be a Hashem. They do it because they are looking for happiness.

    in reply to: ———–Reading Between the Lines————— #1070558

    Yekke2: you’re not the first to define frum like that. The tziddukim already did thousands of years ago. In more modern times, that description was taken up by the Christians. Just believe and you’ll be fine. And don’t worry about those crazy rabbis. They’re still living in the dark Ashes, and don’t know that things have changed. Just believe in god, and love everyone, and j—s will save your soul.

    in reply to: get rid of smart phone #1072458

    This whole discussion is ridiculous, because regardless if a smartphone is a problem in theory, it takes a moron to say that it’s not a problem in reality. Ask anyone involved in marriage counseling how much of a role phones play in sholom bayis issues. Look around next time you are in shul during the week and see how many people are using them. Same thing for any event. How about by family time? And this is without discussing what they’re doing. Just look at how addictive it is, even if its for purely innocent things. And the comparison to a car was also rather unintelligent. I think that is self explanatory. However, anything that is said against the internet over here will automatically elicit a defensive rather than rational response, being as every single person here is on the internet (and not for business). If its a choice between you being wrong or the rabbonim being wrong, and you already decided that you’re not listening to them, you may as well call them delusional idiots, to ratify yourself (in your own eyes, at least), why you’re not listening to them. Anyone on drugs says the same about the police and the doctors. You have plenty of company.

    in reply to: get rid of smart phone #1072445

    Being as the crowd in the CR are people using the internet for recreational purposes, you’re automatically going to get a slightly biased opinion. You’re not getting a real cross section off the frum community.

    in reply to: ———–Reading Between the Lines————— #1070552

    Someone who believes in the sanctity of Torah and mitzvos over anything else, who tries to fulfill its dictums, and who believes in the worthiness of our gedolim.

    in reply to: ———–Reading Between the Lines————— #1070550

    What do you call frum?

    in reply to: Tragedy has fallen on all of us #1070985

    Health: I apologize. I didn’t realize you gave for safety courses. Of course they’re essential. I have no time, but I’ll be happy to give you a donation.

    in reply to: kosherlpesach cigarettes???? #1067565

    ???? ??. I don’t think anyone knew that until you told us. Thank you for enlightening us that smoking can kill. It might even be assur, according to some poskim. I’ll bet none of you knew that.

    in reply to: Theological Conundrum (read at your own risk) #1090308

    In line with their religion,I think the Arabs are right for killing people. However, being that their religion makes them a life threatening danger to society ,I think we are right in killing them first.

    in reply to: Who are the top ten posters that EVERYONE knows? #1070034

    What happened to kjchusid? He went zionist?

    in reply to: get rid of smart phone #1072425

    Its a 24/6 computer. People are on them all day and night.

    in reply to: Gebrokts on Pesach #1067549

    Reb Yitxchok Hutner was makpid that people eat gebrokts.

Viewing 50 posts - 1 through 50 (of 299 total)