Sam l Am

AZ: Thanks for your additional comments.

As far as data and statistics, we both now none exists that is accurate — not even for here and now in the Orthodox communities in America, let alone pre-war Europe. But we also now family sizes in pre-war Europe were generally very large, easily 10 – 12 children and often notably more than that. We also know they tended to marry young. And it was also not so uncommon for significantly older men to marry much younger women (something that today is very rare.)

Again, my point isn’t about the last 30 or 40 years in America, but the last hundreds of years in Europe.

In any event, I wanted to respond to those points. I’ll accept what you just said — that you no longer wish to discuss this particular aspect and will leave it at that.

AZ:

The people who disovered the Age Gap problem (actually 2 actuaries) where probably hiding together with the starters of Hatzalah, Misaskim, Bonei Oilam, Yad Eliezer, etc. etc.

All of these functions (Hatzalah, Misaskim, etc.) were provided by the Jewish community for over a thousand years. The name might not have been Misaskim, but the services were rendered under whatever name. What NASI does is new and has never been previously done. Yet the issue ostensibly existed for 1,000 years in the Ashkenazic community.

As an aside Population growth has exploded bli ayin harah in the last 30 years.

And it has exploded for the last 1,000 years with our 10 – 12 children families for the past 1,000 years in Europe. Just looking at America for the past 30 years to compare is incorrect. The point is 1,000 years not 30 years.

If you agree with that there is a massive probelm-and you do.

I do. But would still like the above explanations to better understand the problem.

To better rephrase my hangup with the math, I see it works on paper as popa_bar_abba ably demonstrated above (that every single guy can get married and a certain percent of gals cannot when there is an average age gap) and accept that it’s a fact. But my mind is having trouble registering the math that over a period of 200 years, there being (say) 100,000 guys and 100,000 gals, and every one of the 100,000 guys got married while only 90,000 gals got married – and the for the other 10,000 gals there are no more guys left. How did 100,000 men marry 90,000 women?

Thanks for the math lessons popa and AZ. I understand the math now, but somehow the fact that every single male born in the past 200 years got married, and there are — every year — X percent of females who have no one left to marry, even though there is always [in the assumption] an exact equal number of M’s and F’s, somehow doesn’t shtim on a conceptional level. But I see from the raw mathematical formulas that it is true.

What’s even more troubling is that none of these scenarios (population growth + age gap of husband and wives) is anything we haven’t experienced since Rabbeinu Gershom enacted his takana amongst Ashkenaz Jewry. (Before the Cherem, with multiple wives, obviously this wasn’t a problem.) So has this issue existed for the past 1,000 years and left unaddressed by Klal Yisroel? I’m not saying that is a reason to not do something about it now, but what explains the lack of a NASI organization to resolve the “age gap” crisis for the past 1,000 years? Okay, during some periods there were wars and diseases and other factors that may have reduced the male population during that period, while leaving the female population less affected. But certainly there were long stretches of periods (perhaps even most of that time) when things were quiet and the same factors were present. Yet nothing in the rabbinic sources indicates an acknowledgement of this age gap problem.

AZ:

Are you saying I was incorrect because I omitted the population growth factor (which I acknowledge although you are correct I didn’t cite it in my previous comments) or because you are maintaining that I was wrong in stating a reason for the age gap is because the guys get married at a later age than the gals?

Also, a hypothetical mathematical question: If from the year 1810 through 2010 we assume there are an exact equal number of males and females born each year, normal population growth is occurring, and no one dies early or goes off the derech, and everyone is ready willing and able to get married, IF every single male marries a female 4 years younger than him (i.e. all the 1810 born males marry 1814 born females, 1811 m –> 1815 f, etc.)…

will every single male in the above scenario get married, but every single year from 1810 through 2010 there will be additional females unable to ever marry (i.e. females born each and every year during that period) while every single guy is getting married — even though there was an exact same number of males and females?

So gavra_at_work, you believe in throwing our borders open to one and all without restriction? Half of China’s billion people, and billions of others around the world, might just want to take advantage! Or is it that you believe only those who break our laws to enter this nation should be given that privilege, while those that apply legally, wait years and years and years, and still may not get a VISA must suffer at the expense of those who break in? Good logic.

Over 25% of today’s federal prison population are illegal aliens. In some areas of the country, 12% of felonies, 25% of burglaries and 34% of thefts are committed by illegal aliens.”

Ignoring the “minor crime” such as ID theft and property crimes being committed by illegal aliens, here is a summary on some of the collateral damage reaped in crimes as a result of tolerating illegal aliens in the USA:

In Los Angeles, 95% of some 1,500 outstanding warrants for homicides are for illegal aliens. About 67% of the 17,000 outstanding fugitive felony warrants are for illegal aliens.

There are currently over 400,000 unaccounted for illegal alien criminals with outstanding deportation orders. At least one fourth of these are hard core criminals.

80,000 to 100,000 illegal aliens who have been convicted of serious crimes are walking the streets. Based on studies they will commit an average of 13 serious crimes per perpetrator.

Illegal aliens are involved in criminal activities at a rate that is 2-5 times their representative proportion of the population.

In 1980, our Federal and state facilities held fewer than 9,000 criminal aliens but at the end of 2003, approximately 267,000 illegal aliens were incarcerated in U.S. correctional facilities at a cost of about $6.8 billion per year.

At least 4.5 million pounds of cocaine with a street value of at least $72 billion is smuggled across the southern border every year. ..

56% of illegal aliens charged with a reentry offense had previously been convicted on at least 5 prior occasions.

Illegal aliens charged with unlawful reentry had the most extensive criminal histories. 90% had been previously arrested. Of those with a prior arrest, 50% had been arrested for violent or drug-related felonies.

Illegal aliens commit between 700,000 to 1,289,000 or more crimes per year.

Illegal alien sexual predators commit an estimated 130,909 sexual crimes each year.

There may be as many as 240,000 illegal alien sex offenders circulating throughout America. Based on studies, they will commit an average of 8 sex crimes per perpetrator before being caught.

Nearly 63% of illegal alien sex offenders had been deported on another offense prior to committing the sex crime.

Only 2% of the illegal alien sex offenders in one study had no history of criminal behavior, beyond crossing the border illegally.

In Operation Predator, ICE arrested and deported 6,085 illegal alien pedophiles. Some studies suggest each pedophile molests average of 148 children. If so, that could be as many as 900,580 victims.

Nobody knows how big the Sex Slave problem is but it is enormous.

The very brutal MS-13 gang has over 15,000 members and associates in at least 115 different cliques in 33 states.

The overall financial impact of illegal alien crimes is estimated at between $14.4 and $81 billion or more per year. Factor in the crime as a result of the cocaine and other drugs being smuggled in and the number may reach $150 billion per year.

Still think illegal immigration is a “victimless crime” and we don’t need to control our borders? Remember, about 60% of the crimes being committed are by illegal aliens who were previously deported.

Allowing our borders to be disregarded coupled with little national commitment about doing anything about it has resulted in growing mayhem by illegal alien criminals, not a “victimless crime.”