Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
several interesting quotes and footnotes from JOHN D. LOIKE AND MOSHE D. TENDLER Molecular Genetics, Evolution, and Torah Principles, 2006. I am not trying to summarize the paper, just finding interestig references for further research:
genetic drift: Because human beings have only a small number of offspring, not all of the parents’ genes will necessarily be passed on to their progeny. In contrast, species that have many offspring tend to distribute all of the parents’ genes to various progeny of the next generation. Thus, a small surviving population is going to be affected more dramatically by natural disasters (such as earthquakes, floods, volcanoes, or fires) or by war and may not be representative of the original population in its genetic makeup.
Neziv affirms that, prior to Abraham, randomness existed in all areas except when it impacted upon humankind as a whole and threatened the divine plan for the world. However, Abraham brought God “down to earth” to govern humankind with hashgah. haperatit and thus altered the relationship between God and humankind such that hashgahah became a force in the world
Hullin 7b R Hanina v Rava whether Hashem controls every event
See Mo‘ed Katan 28a, where Rava states that “length of life, children and sustenance depend
not on merits but on mazzal.” Also Shabbat 156 ein mazzal le-Yisrael or yesh mazzal le-Yisrael. “Mazzal” here may mean not chance, but natural lawMeam Loez God created man together with the animals to teach him that as far as his body is concerned, he has no advantages over lower animals. His only advantage is his divine soul
Malbim (Gen. 1:25) points out that the description of creation in the Torah presents an evolutionary-like sequence of events whereby each day introduces a qualitatively higher level of life form
Vilna Ga’on comments on Prov. 25:2 that God’s honor demands that we leave hidden what preceded creation and focus only on scientific studies that impact humankind directly. Sa‘adyah Ga’on interprets Eccl. 2:12 as an injunction not to waste time in the study of cosmology, since
the truth will never be revealed and little will be accomplished despite the expenditure of great effort. We propose, however, that these authorities would have supported the study of the genetic basis of evolution had they been aware of the benefits to humankind—both medical and moral—that
emerge from the molecular genetics of evolution. Shla Hagigah 11a) that it is legitimate to inquire into and examine the processes by which the world was created during the first six daysIn Eruvin (100b), R. Yohanan states that had the Torah not been given, we would have learned various (good) characteristics from different animals. Animal characteristics are also expressed in
human beings and should be appropriately studied so that the knowledge gained from such study may be utilized to serve the Creator.Humility: The Talmud (Sanhedrin 38a) states: “Our Rabbis taught:
Adam was created on erev Shabbat [as the last creature created]. Why?
. . . . So that if man becomes arrogant, one can say to him in reminder: the
lowly gnat preceded you in the order of creation of the world!” The
remarkable genetic similarities between human beings and animals—
the fact that each human being is about 99% genetically similar to the
monkey—teaches us that human beings have a propensity to behave like
animals if they are not in possession of morals and values that give them
true human dignity and enable them to realize their z.
elem Elokim.45maskil > Mitzvos and Aveiros that are in the realm of thoughts and personal feelings, Avoda, etc are not “Hashkafa”. They are “Halacha”.
I agree. It is just the “halakha” may be complicated in these cases and change based on the person and environment, so it can not be easily summarized `in short lectures for children. And when it is, it does disservice to the topic and to the students.
akuperman, even later than that. First, there was defense against the foreign influences and antagonists. R Salanter explained going from Lita to Paris: you can’t talk to people who are going down the slope, but you can talk to the ones who already landed at the bottom. I think 1967 war was a big source of teshuva movement in USA, including Chabad activities – turning the view of Judaism from a retreating to a more attractive entity.
This kuruv period might be over by now: looking at statistics of Jewish community, I see very little movement from non-O to O at this point. Growth of O is via pru urvu and decline in non-O is due to the lack thereof and assimilation …
As advised, I looked at 4 top papers at FLCCC site ivermectin section:
1 study: shows 75% improvement use in prophylactics reducing viral load in young people in Dominican Republic. Authors explicitly say that this is a tool in addition to vaccination.
2nd: study is withdrawn by the referred journal
3rd: Israeli preprint similar to (1) on a small sample, results claim 3x improvement, but plot over time shows less improvement with a jump up on the last day, others have questions about study design
4th: a meta-review describing
– multiple trials, some showing 3x or no improvement in PCR with lower death rates on small samples.
– comparison of pairs of towns in South America – same idea as Bangladesh study, but without proper design. There is no way to check whether towns are comparable, etc. Claimed results are similar to mask wearing: 2x reduction rates.
Many of the results above are pre-DeltaOverall, this conforms to my impression: this is a hopeful tool, especially in poor countries, but even
most optimistic claimed results say that this is another layer in defense, in now way a substitute for vaccines, masks, etc – and some of the authors say exactly same thing.aposhiteyid, I understand your point, still 58% agree with “We should not be easing Covid-19 lockdown restrictions until a substantial proportion of children are fully vaccinated”. Do you think that these people are going to sit in lockdowns themselves and welcome others who ignore the rules? I am not there, so it is hard to judge,
phil > as well, unfortunately, either from “breakthrough cases” or from side effects.
the words you are using: “breakthrough” and “side” effects should be your clue that these are not primary effects and lower incidence than the original disease.
5T > Didn’t China save the Mirrer Yeshiva by allowing it to relocate to Shanghai
Shanghai was occupied by Japanese from 1937 and also had lots of international population – from Western businessmen to Russian refugees from Bolsheviks. Dutch council in Kovno was giving Jews visas to Curaso and Japanese Sugihara used this as a basis to give them transit visas via Japan, that included Shanghai. By some diplomatic miracle (and maybe some financial incentive), Soviets ewre rounding up Jews in Lita and Poland but honored the Jews with these visas to travel freely through, I guess, the same railroad that lead others to labor camps.
Lack of historical animosity is not a good indicator: Jews had a lot of tensions with Poles – but that is where most of us decided to live over centuries, had our own government (Vaad Arba Artzos), and grew large communities. Many countries did not have tension with Jews by simply not allowing them in or expelling them (Spain, England, Russia).
Is there any data how getting healthier (or younger) affects you? Getting rid of weight, reducing blood pressure whether medically or through exercise? I realize CR may not be the best place for such questions, though.
Phil, Right,
disease and vaccines have similar effects on the immune system – they both create antibodies that decrease with time and variants, and they also create B and T cells that do not attack virus immediately upon entering the body but provide some protection against severe disease. There might be differences – which one is waning faster and how much antibodies are created, but differences are smaller than similarities. Protection from B and T-cells are hard to measure, so less is understood about them.One difference is that disease may do invisible internal damage and thus a second disease may _sometimes_ be really bad. I know people who sneezed first time and ended up in ICU second time.
So, bottom line – if 6-8 months passed after your last immune stimulation by either of them, you should at least measure antibodies and possibly get a vaccine – and behave more responsibly.
Timing is not surprising. Overall, most similar viruses, both disease and vaccines, give protection on the order of a year. People have colds annually … I do have a feeling though how COVID differs from normal colds: neither my wife or me went to big schools or attended tishes. And kids were at home until school. When our oldest kids went to school one year, we evidently encountered “new to us” viruses – and the whole family was sick for several months, a much harder hit than an occasional cold.
Noah was the first person, but he was not successful. He would talk to them about the bad stuff they were doing, try to explain why bad behavior is damaging: if you are robbing someone today, then tomorrow someone else will rob you, better to have justice and work hard. But he did not explain/show them an alternative of how to live a good life (ad kan Sforno, R Schwab). He would fit well into CR, lambasting people with opposing views.
> Cavalierly dismisses what is claimed to be a miracle drug
I am not dismissing anything. I am just looking at less controversial ways to help our communities. Even the most miraculous drugs may stop a person from dying, but the virus already did damage to the body. Obviously, prevention is a key. So, we have certain measures that also became controversial for whatever practical and political reasoning. So, I am suggesting people do CO2 monitoring of their mosdos – easy to do, does not involve medical procedures. Could you help people in your community?
> I challenge you to explain what they measured
I read the study, maybe not extremely carefully. Here is my imperfect recollection: the goal was to see group effects, not just individual people. They chose 100s of villages in different parts of the country, divided them in pairs of similar ones, then applied public measures in one set and kept the rest as controls. Most of measures were giving out masks of different types publicly, combined with public messages, and various incentives. Then, they measured number of people who turned up visibly sick, and send observers to measure mask compliance and level of SD. I summarized the results here previously.
coffee > קרקע אינו נגזלת
I was thinking the same question. Is it karka – White House, or is it movable – Obama’s “a phone and a pen”, and I presume also a red button. Also, I think we presume that non-Jews always steel karka so you let them cut the arovos and they seem to agree now (happy indigenous day!): Brits stole White House karka from Indians, Colonists from Brits, Brits burnt it by halakha of a rebellious city.
Ctlawyer, what happens on Jan 20 if an election continues being in legal dispute – supreme-court-ordered recount or revote, electors deadlocked, House deadlocked?
Also, is gezelah a high crime and can a President be impeached for that? probably not of movables
?ווי פילע אַנטי -ציאָניסטן
Philosopher, in a year 90% of hospitalized will be vaxxed – because most people will be vaxxed and remaining will get sick one or more times. Over the whole period, 10 times proportionally more non-vaxed will pass away. What exactly are you trying to prove? that it is safer to get sick and die or be immune than to get a vaccine?
when I check w/ Ivermectin, I did not see any large studies quantifying the effect, so it is hard to judge. Given the low cost, I am surprised why the proponents were not able to organize that.
I was wondering about nasal sprays myself. This would make sense, provided population can do it. Are there any reliable studies on that?
Masks – I quoted recently a large high-quality study from Bangladesh about effects of masks in real communities. It is very convincing.
SD – I am not calling for anyone (outside of my family) to do hasidut. But everyone could do some reasonable steps according to their abilities – limit travel, parties, stay home for a couple of days after visiting hotspots, do not leave kids with grandparents after schools, open windows in schools, etc. I see, unfortunately, a lot of people who would not lift a finger. There is no charitable explanation for that.
Ventilation, again, would you be interested in testing CO2 levels in mosdos around you? Unlike mouth and hand-washing, this does not require making population do something daily – you can find who has bad ventilation and administration will fix it. Simple, non-intrusive measure.
RebE > The CHOOSID is clear. An election was done and to undo it proof must be given.
Or you can read it that Trump was in office already, so Harris had to show that she was elected without hashash of geneiva. [Rosh Hasnana started with saying that count King’s years from inauguration, elector meetings do not matter]
philosopher, I had 2 lists – non-progs first and then progs – the one that you just listed. As I tried to sample proportionally, then yu can see that he has substantial, but probably less than 50% of non-prog ideas, especially in the areas of his expertise – policing. Now, you got to AOC site and tell us whether any of those non-prog ideas are there? I don’t know whether he qualifies as a “centrist” but definitely not as a 100% progressive.
RebE > I also have many typos which I correct.
RebE’s posts are important, thus he bothers to correct them. Others, including mine, are not as important, so the grammer aint metter.
Melbournian> i see it every day when i walk down the street
As I mentioned, you see those who are outside, but not those who are not. When I stay OOT (my town), I see lots of people who moved here from denser cities. I did not see them in the city.
I see people coming to a minyan, some careful, some not. Then, I called one guy who was not coming. He said that he is not coming because he had a contact with a sick person. I would not know that he is following rules unless I would have called.
So, again – do you see same number of people in the street as pre-pandemic? The mobility numbers I posted (maybe you did not yet see my 2nd post) point that Australians is WAY more restrictive than Israelis and Americans.
> not against the Upsilon variant
worldwide cases go up again (3rd peak), but deaths are decreasing daily from May to the currently 2000 level and hopefully will continue down further. Hopefully, this is due to worldwide vaccine deployment – 45% of the world had at least 1 dose (USA is 10% above that, great job!) – and thus will continue decreasing. This lower level of severe disease reduces chance of developing new variants. Of course, if the variants are coming from a lab, then we would either continue jabbing or Pres Trump will nuke the lab in 2025. We can also try teshuva …
Looks like Avira is so much against the movies that his post got censored…
Any way, beyond the shmutz, Jews in general prefer listening and reading to visual information. There is an interesting difference – when you see an image/movie, it is very vivid and very convincing: all details are presented and it is very hard to disbelieve what you see. When you read, you have to imagine yourself what is happening. You can think logically whether the text makes sense, whether it is fully convincing.
It is not a coincidence that most brutal modern regimes, Nazis and Commies, came right after movies became mainstream – video propaganda is very convincing. A simple example: Nazi had a documentary showing how Polish hoodlums are breaking windows in Jewish stores (message: we came to make order). Of course, what is not shown is Nazis who just brought the Poles to the filming location and stand with weapons behind the camera. Similarly, Soviet movies about happy peasants right when millions were dying from hunger.
Anyway, I am looking how those who are skeptical can positively contribute without causing controversies and opposition when they just call for medicines others like.
Here is my proposal – use CO2 monitors to measure ventilation level in your area schools, shuls, restaurants. CO2 400 is fresh air, CO2 800 is dirty, 1000+ means that the school is either not switching it off or filters are bad and thus all kids breath the same year and pass COVID to each other. Easy way to find most risky locations and help people without paying anything to the government. Just $100 for the hardware.
I was mentioning it here a year ago and did measurements in mosdos near me, but I was not 100% sure it is worth doing around. According to NYT, there is now a whole movement of parents around the country who give kids these monitors and then look at the numbers over time and can see CO2 levels a class or a dining room is – and tell administration to fix the problem. No government involved.
If any of you want to take this challenge we can further discuss details how to do this.
First question – do you accept that there is a pandemic. If you don’t – then, it is indeed easy: you don’t think that there is a threat, there is no need for any intervention, etc. There is no need to ivermectin either. This is, of course, refuted by statistics and personal experience of many people.
Now, if there is a pandemic, there are many independent ways to deal with this – SD, masks, washing surfaces, washing hands, ventilation, (later) vaccines, vitamins, medicines. They were not just invented, these are standard public policies for pandemics. After some experience, some were judged less important (surfaces), the rest are multiple layers of defense. some are more expensive or inconvenient or risky, so I understand why someone will be against masks (convenience) or against SD (love of people), or washing hands (laziness), or vaccines (risk). You seem to say that they are all suspect because they are proposed by “corrupt government”, except the ones that are proposed by a group of “non-corrupt” scientists. This is strange, given that these are standard policies not developed specifically for COVID and accepted during initial emergency by multiple independent-thinking countries and bodies.
There seems to be one unfortunate psychological effect: observant Jewish community seem to react to COVID and government and life in general similar to US Southern population. There is one difference though: the Southerners live in large in rural areas, while Jews in very urban ones. I see in remote suburban areas that large groups of people walk without masks but most are walking around other people. The only side effect of this is that many still are maskless when coming inside stores, pubs, etc. But still they are doing not so bad. At the same time, Jews copy them (as we see here views mindlessly copied from talk shows and obscure sites) in urban environment with worse results.
Research finally can make shalom between those who want to vax everyone and those who insist on their natural immunity rights. British research from ZOE Covid Study app show that
VACCINE + COVID == VACCINE + BOOSTER
that is, if someone had COVID and a vaccine does not need a booster.To recap, previous data was inconsistent whether COVID == VACCINE – some studies say one is better, some another. This makes sense due to high variability of effects of COVID – it could be mild or severe, short or long, etc. So, the results of the study may hinge on how you define “exposure” and average exposure at a particular time and location.
BUT, when you combine COVID with a Vaccine, vaccine provides consistent protection, so variability of COVID exposure is less affecting the result.
Bottom line – those who had COVID should get one or two vaccines when they are 6-12 months out.
Also, there are papers saying that more time between 2 vaccines are better.Disclaimer, of course: this is not a medical advice, just an input for talking to your doctor.
Original trolls are from Bavel (we discussed this Maharal before):
Talmidei Chachamim of Bavel learned how to use pattern analysis to reconstruct missing information. Some students learned from that how to argue without commitment to truth and method that Amoraim had. Explains a lot of the CR.
> I see plenty of “rational and educated” professors, scientists and doctors being anti-lockdowns, anti-masks, and anti-covidvaccines.
we just saw that almost all doctors actually took vaccine before mandate. For your good question – 50% of German doctors joined the Nazis, not 95%.
Also, when you claim your scientists are against everything – what is the chance that someone can find scientific argument against vaccines and against masks and against lockdowns and for one specific controversial medicine. This is for me impossible coincidence. It means they all are drinking from the same bucket.
this is Jacob Benzaquen, there are other Sephardi Benzaquens that seem to be running kosher kosher symbols – KoLA, and others. As we learned from Noah’s, not all the family is the same.
Google has community mobility report by country and regions over time
here are current levels comparing with pre-pandemic
you can see how much lower AU indices are for retail, transit, and work comparing with USA and Israel.
Baruch Hashem people are still eating, though.retail grocery transit work
AU
Capital Ter -43% -5% -75% -53%
New South Wales -36% +4% -69% -41%
USA
FL -13% -2% -27% -22%
NJ -7% +9% -27% -28%
IL -6% +3% -22% -25%Israel
Central l -2% +18% -14% -17%
Jerusalem -7% +9% -7% -26%correction: did NOT do exhaustive research
As advised, I went to Adams site. I see a mixture of progressive and not progressive policies. In the area of his expertise – policing, he is especially specific and sometimes seem to express sensible ideas using language palatable to progressives (he suggests “gun control” where he clearly targets looking for guns used by shooters, not generic guns). here is a sample of not progressives and progressives policies:
not progressive
SAVE $1.5B AND AVOID LAYOFFS BY SIMPLY NOT HIRING ANYONE NEW FOR TWO YEARSwe will reduce agency spending at least 3-5% by applying an efficiency mandate that eliminates ineffective programs and unnecessary spending, while utilizing an inequality impact test so that programs vital to lower-in-come New Yorkers are protected.
By using real-time governing tools and tracking crime trends to become predictive, we can quickly shift NYPD resources from one community to another to reverse bad trends. For instance, we will regularly shift detectives and other officers from low-crime areas to crime hot-spots.
work with private companies who are willing to sponsor spots for NYPD supervisors at the leadership academies they send their own management staff to, helping train a new generation of brass to think critically, behave honorably and lead effectively.
Relocation Employment Assistance Program (REAP) has successfully drawn new businesses here from outside the state by providing a tax credit per employee per year if they locate in certain areas of the city.
TAX-FREE TUESDAYS”
ELIMINATE THE FEES FOR STARTING (OR RE-STARTING) A SMALL BUSINESS
progressiveWe can generate $1-2 billion annually by instituting a “Recovery Share”—a modest increase to the income taxes of city earners who make more than $5 million a year, sunsetting after two years.
reward businesses that hire local workers and benefit minority and female owners and workers—especially on City-financed projects.
recruiting from the very same neighborhoods that are suffering from crime, which are mostly Black and Brown
EMPOWER IMMIGRANTS WITH MUNICIPAL VOTING RIGHTS
INVEST IN GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE
ADD HOUSING—FOR EVERYONE—IN WEALTHY NEIGHBORHOODSCurrently, Chinese do not actually occupy countries that are away from their immediate borders. They simply make them dependent on China economically, and then politically. So, if they can influence enough politicians, assisted by penetration of information networks, they can support first friendly, and later dependent, politicians to be in control of the country. Then, our trouble will come from the captured US state rather than Chinese directly.
Melbournian, I did do exhaustive research.
Surveys of 400 randomly selected people are generally reliable if done by a professional outfit and are not abused for political reasons. Abuse is usually in the form of leading question or a question asked in context of other questions. This one looks legit at the first glance.
But if you are skeptical, you should present counter-arguments. Could you find a different survey?
could you present your visual observations in the context? for example, compare number of people in public transit or in the stores comparing with pre-pandemic.just find anything that can measure 3 levels. Of electricity, most probable. But you can use water if you prefer. There is nothing fundamental in using binaries, except that we learned how to build transistors with certain properties.
A question from a kid – was it really a punishment? People in the flood generation died older (and bored?) than people lived normal lives after the flood.
Punishment takes a year.. Some say it is a normal timeline for punishments – makos mitzraim, Yiov..
Note that COVID took a year – from March to March, when vaccines became widely available in developed countries, and after that the remaining punishment is mostly self-inflicted.
NYers, should you first say Gomel for the D- primaries ending with a most palatable candidate?
Show some appreciationby definition, there are no “active people” in a coffeeroom.
whether it is a continent or a country or a long-term prison, here is what the in-MATES are saying (as of Aug 31):
Actions to prevent the spread of Covid-19, like wearing masks in crowds and practicing social distancing, should be required even after we achieve the vaccination targets
agree 65%We should not be easing Covid-19 lockdown restrictions until a substantial proportion of children are fully vaccinated
agree 58%So, it sounds like your litvishe rov was mis-informed and majority of population supports lockdowns. Sadly to make a minor mistake of Hillul Hashem. Hope this is not the Rov’s problem, but of people who tell stories about him.
You can often be mistaken by visuals: you go outside or to a shul and you see people not following restrictions. At the same time, you are not seeing people who did not come. Maybe this is why tallis has so many numerical connotations – do not follow your eyes, learn how to count statistics instead.
ujm, you should ask manufacturer of the product
RebE, so, interpreting Chasam Sofer, one does not need to own the house clean and have a management job, but one needs to plant – a profession and a mortgage should suffice.
Another note: we are blessed to live at the time of abundance. There is no need to keep up with the Joneses. If someone wants to live in a cheap place and not spend extravagantly, and the bride is happy with that, he might not need a mortgage.
It is also a catch 22: a lot of person’s success is due to his wife, so you don’t need to wait to be fully established to get married. Also, the wife will undoubtfully want to change how the person looks and what he does, so don’t get too settled and make her work hard (for you).
Nochum, given that you don’t remember the Rav, you probably were not there when you heard the story. Also, if the Rav did not know what people do outside, this tells you something about he himself behave. How about you call that Rav and ask – whether it is mutar to be not careful, and also – whether it is mutar to be careful.
> she is a special girl.
not knowing the girl, of course, but how would you ensure that in 20 years she is not going to post about her great skills in punishing her kids? R Pliskin writes a young lady who did not like how her mother was treating her father, and then was horrified that a month after the wedding, same words popped out of her mouth. A person needs to do serious work on his/her middos if they have bad influences in life. If they do, of course, they become indeed very special.
We discussed Rambam’s suggestion to temporarily switch a middah to an opposite side until you train yourself. R Twersky suggests joining AA-type groups – are there any Parent Anonymous groups out there? But, of course, the hardest part is for the person to commit to a change. R Twersky in exploring one case of a guy who had a great management job, a family, and was occasionally coming to be treated for drinking. He added up losing everything and everyone, but did not come back until he hit “rock bottom” – by eating from Salvation Army for which he used to collect funds in his office. He also suggests sometimes not to protect people on the way to “rock bottom” – the faster they hit it, the better. for example, not to pay debts for a gambler, or not protect an abusive person when police come.
Any other ideas/sources out there?
ujm (in response to 5T and Rambam) > remain single indefinitely.
Classical example of moral hazard: person who gets insurance/vaccine/welfare becomes less careful.
If they remain single for a year, they might reconsider their life path.> computer can either be on (1) or off (0) circuit
there is no 2 in binary
you can “easily” build computer with 3 states – off,+1,-1. Then, 2+2 is indeed 11I didn’t complain, Esteemed 29! Although a discussion between an anonymous poster and a numbered moderator how can both respond and censor is definitely Kafkaesque.
Avira, yes, I was not serious, mods are doing a great job, but they do make their own judgment on what is offensive.