Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
YS
> distrust of governmentI presume of “liberal” government. I think most communities were very pro-Trump. So, how does it make sense to not accept vaccines developed under Trump?
> anti-vax leaders
This might be a one off, the overall phenomenon cuts across many communities, minhagim and even gefilte fish line> social media
I also think this is huge. I think what is happening: an average “traditional” internet user has capability to do an internet search, look up some sites, understands difference between sites. Social media user (esp second-hand one who just hears something from a social media user) does not differentiate between sources as they all appear on his wall (that’s what I heard, not a social media user myself).maybe something is lost in transmission or translation. Could you please clarify what exactly is your doctor saying.
> how you think others should behave but imply several times that they aren’t.
So, if you agree with the proposed path and think that people are doing that, please inform me of that.
If you disagree, then explain why. That is what discussions are for.> When you make dumb comments like this
Apologize for the joke.
> relay the general worries and line of thinking some doctors have.
As I mentioned, you need to compare similar effects – either deaths or serious illness in both cases.
You mentioned before about “your doctor” not recommending you a vaccine – is this what YOUR doctor say? If he is indeed so sloppy, you may look for another one. But maybe you refer to a generic internet-quoted “doctor”, then we can just disregard what they say.DY > First show me evidence that frum people are more antivax than the general population
a good question. We may not be more, depends what your baseline is. I implicitly compare Jews I know with non-Jews I know professionally and this may not be a fair comparison. Furthermore, what we see in the street does not include people who are not in the street. Still, I’d like to understand what is the source of the movement. We have here people posting information but it is hard to pin-point what lead them to this position.
DY > Show me evidence that cloth masks do anything
The Impact of Community Masking on COVID-19: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bangladesh, Sep 2021A
by Jason Abaluck et althey randomized 600 villages with no and different types of masks and followed for 8 weeks. Surgical masks show 12% decrease of symptomatic cases and 35% in 60+ y.olds . Really cloth masks – 6%, not sure why someone wears those when surgical ones are available. SD increased by 5% (7% in the market, 0% in mosques)
Note this is a result of real-life intervention by giving out masks, not by forcing everyone to wear them. In villages with no intervention, 13% would wear them, after intervention – 42%. Also increased in mosques. Distribution of masks mattered, no additional measures – text messages, payments, ads did not matter.
> he is an oines and was not m’vatel p’ru ur’vu.
On the other hand, if someone fulfils pru urvu while not taking a vaccine, doing shiduchim without the mask, and having an unsafe wedding – this would be mitzva b’yadei averah. Not sure what the status of the kids would be then.
Yserbius > with all this anti-vaccine propaganda that the frum oilem is unfortunately falling for
Can we pin-point what is the source? I have several hypotheses, each might be true to an extent. Any others?
1) Is it simply that some get info from social media and then propagate to those who do not have online source or time/inclination/skills to search? If this is so, then it shows that our community is not protected against online viruses even being in large part offline, as information still travels.2) Community effect – when you are in a community where nobody takes precautions, you behave like everyone and then start processing information accordingly to justify that.
3) Giving up – given that community is so connected and every family has lots of kids in schools, we were often hit hard early and then there is not much hope to avoid exposure in daily life. If you crum lots of people/kids into a shul/school without good ventilation for a long time, then masks will not help much, short of N95s. Then, like in (2), you have to convince yourself that you are not doing an aveirah by giving credence to any piece of information that justifies your position.
4) Inability to see a big picture of effect on older people, etc – a lot of sickness happens in nursing homes, hospitals, etc, people, B’H are not falling down on the street. So, a little of information, ability to count, and abstract thinking is required and is not alaways avialble.
5) Even as many (most?) Rabbonim are for vaccination, and many are for various measures (capsules, testing, masking), seems like a large part of the community does not hear or does not care. Maybe eople surrounding gedolim and those in charge of media are affected like everyone else and are not emphasizing the message? For example, I saw for the first time this spring that R Edelsteon, Ponevezh, gave his first public lecture – and only to vaccinated students and behind a huge screen. I did not see anything before that he was isolating for a year before. I may have missed that, but maybe it was just not a cool story to publish?
> 1050 –
without going into your analysis –
1) you are comparing 1000 who died with “risk from vaccine”. you need to compare it with the “risk of dying from vaccine”, or risk of sickness from both. Apple to apples, or oranges to oranges. Please correct the comparison.
2) when you compare risk of covid v risk of vaccine directly – both effects are not fully known. One is from a virus that damages internal organs and triggers immune reaction, another – just triggers immune reaction. One is from Wuhan, another – from a Western lab. If you work from home and daven outside – you may argue that your chance of getting Covid is much less than certain effect of vaccine, and makes sense to wait for more info. If you are constantly exposed, then the preference for covid v vaccine should be clear.3) co-morbidities include high blood pressure and being overweight, and also check where 6% number comes from – is it for al ages, for young people?
4) research I ‘saw is that viral load for vaccinated is way lower. Most risk for vaxed is from unvaxed. If you have a reference, we can review.this trial showed no significant difference of HCQ in outpatient setting
April 22, 2021 Effect of Early Treatment With Hydroxychloroquine or Lopinavir and Ritonavir on Risk of Hospitalization Among Patients With COVID-19 The TOGETHER Randomized Clinical TrialNov 2020 Do Zinc Supplements Enhance the Clinical Efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine?: a Randomized, Multicenter Trial
this trial showed no benefit adding ZincI am not saying these articles are decisive. for example, first article showed 10% improvement, below statistical significance. But to claim that there are no such studies is not correct.
Again, I would be curious to know how you came to conclusion that such studies do not exist –
did you check clinical trial database yourself; did you search duck-duck-go; or did you read this claim somewhere and accepted?DY > Because there’s a bigger risk in not taking it.
One research I saw was that death rate in nursing homes was 50% higher in towns with colleges. Statistics collected over multiple areas in USA. Attributed to medical students bringing it in, despite all protection measures and testing. So, the fact is that anyone who can be a host to the virus can potentially lead to someone being sick.
So, if you are a person who would be happy to help an old lady cross the road (I presume everyone here would be), then you can as well do little things to help cure the world by taking a vaccine, travelling less, not going into large gathering, etc.
Give the guys their due – they figured out that it is easier to travel on Yom Kippur than on Sukkos. Drilling holes was not approved. You can say that cold temperature outside is enough of an exemption.
On the other hand, if the whole capsule lives for less than a week, can it qualify as a temporary dwelling?> Chasam Sofer forbids traveling in a steamboat on shabbos
Raban Gamliel did, sans the steam engine. What is the difference?
Furthermore, it took weeks to get from Europe to America before Lindbergh – did no follower of Chasam Sofer come here? Maybe there are some conditions for this psak – leisure or when other forms of travel are available?
Also, is more than 18 minutes drive qualifies as “fresh”?
common > “US researchers claim.”
mahybe I missed it, but is it possible to get a title or authors of a study you are quoting?
Seems like you are quoting popular news article quoting it, what type of a site is it?can we do some research on our own here? can I ask people post what was the source and the path to the information they are posting? This well help us understand what our sources are and what biases and influences are. We always do it in Jewish discussion, and we know well differences between Amoraim and Tannaim, etc.
For example, my recent claim ” masks seem to lead to higher SD” is from a research paper that I read in full, found it by a reference from a news site.
> who knows where and when they were baked.
they would have a date and a SKU number on them that will lead you to the factory.
OU would be able to tell you that.You may still have them pas isroel if they were baked before yom kippur and OU made an arrangement.
> and they are not see through
maybe someone thinks that they are see through?! you know about the guy who complained about inappropriate view across the street? They put a fence. He still called to complain – I still can see it when I get up on a chair!
thanks, I was not aware of this recent controversy at Cochrane. I think this supports the idea that Cochrane was considered the authoritative meta-review group. Did this change now? I looked up – there is nothing substantial coming later after this 2018 controversy, hat is partially personal, partially scientific. The only other later articles are by the person who lost in 2018 and continues writing about it on sites with such intriguing names as “mad in america”…
On substance, the discussion is
1) are RCTs biased by design as they are often funded by industry
2) do RCTs reflect clinical experience, as they often provide a simplistic set up and weed out complex patients, preferring patients with only one diagnosis, and ignore clinician input.I think both points may be valid, but to what degree? RCT meta-analysis still seems to be the best way to get noise out of the data. Hopefully, analysis of real data will find way into meta-analysis. This seem to be happening now with COVID. Some of the real data analysis, including from Israel, uses post-processing that emulates RCTs – by pairing patients from 2 groups based on similar demographic attributes.
The core question is – all vaccines by now were tested on a very large number of people, but they were not tested over long period of time. So, then the question is: during long-term testing of vaccines in last, say, 40 years: is it often that a vaccine is seen as safe after 1 year, but problems are discovered after a longer time period. Note, this is not about complications discovered simply by testing more people, but specifically 3-5 years after a specific patient got vaccinated.
I did a very brief search of vaccine trial reports several months ago and did not find any. Medicines seems to be more prone to side effects over time, as they are taken continuously. Maybe, others can find examples, and when we will have a baseline: say, 5 out of 50 vaccines had a side effect found after 3 years and how severe they typically are.
mobico, morbidity numbers are not well defined: what is a case? symptomatic? PCR? leading to antibodies? anyone who chanced on a virus for 1 minute? for 1 hour? There are estimates of how many true cases are there, but they are just that – estimates. These numbers are hard to compare across countries.
what is true – taht too many people died, and, at this point, many of these deaths are preventable in rich countries through their own and others’ vaccination … So, I think – people who do something inappropriately risky are doing an aveirah at that moment. those who refrain from taking vaccine when it is appropriate do an aveirah every moment they are not taking it.
Avram, Syag, again, I mention these issues because they (in my opinion) affect how one should behave. So, I can’t make a general statement that covers both people who are self-sustaining and those who take money from others. I brought R Salanter as an example, I am not against R Salanter, I hope you are also not.
nisht, yes, thanks for making a more detailed heshbon than I did. You can modify it a little in favor of own work:
– you can obviously learn by heart while you are doing manual work, especially for yourself and not for the customer (it is a question whether you can distract yourself from work when paid for work). If you can say shma on the tree, you can say it in the garage. Especially in our time, when you can even play a lecture on your phone
– You can also involve those kids in age-appropriate activities helping you. This should lead to bonding and kids respecting the father for his skills. And your kids learn something, so include their savings also.
– Share tools with like-minded friends
– probably can buy cheaper oil in bulk
– I personally do not follow that. I try to get to a Jewish mechanic, learn and work while he is doing his thing, and I have a chance to say something nice to him. He used to let me sit in his office for a major repair.> “You can also move from NY to Alabama.” .. someone told you that if you didnt like something to move away
I actually live in a pretty liberal place, and when I was younger and (even more) vocal, I was told about that … But note that moving from NY to Alabama is not that dramatic, comparing to what people in the world experience when, say, Poles move to UK, or Syrians to Germany. I moved from the South to Midwest and then further North, and you adapt pretty quickly.
This is the beauty of this country – there is competition between governments (states) not just businesses: people can choose whether they want to have high or low tax rates, etc. The Feds are the only ones above competition and that is why progressives are trying to use Feds rather than states for their agenda – so that we will not be able to run away from them, as you mention.
As to comparing USSR and USA courts, that is lamer than what I said (:…
I agree on bias. Social media and algorithms amplify that. Adaptive tools (fbook, youtube, google search) feed you what you liked previously and amplify it further. I try to read moderate-left sources to avoid being biased by more natural right ones. It is usually transparent when they are biased [say, blaming bad decisions by Obama admin, but avoiding naming them. Just match the dates yourself]. If I feel I start believing what they are saying, then I take a detox.
And I think, Jewish learning should help everyone learn basics of questioning sources, literary analysis – what is missing, who is saying, what if there is a mis-attribution, etc
Remember that Phase 3 trials measured vaccine effectiveness v placebo – assuming same behavior. In real life, most people relax their behavior after taking a vaccine, like a good ice cream after a diet …
And when you now have a mass of people who congregate together with the vaccine, then they used zechuyot from the vaccine to reduce distance between themselves rather than to be safer.
Ironically, masks seem to lead to higher SD: people see masks and then behave accordingly. But when people see vaccinated people, they do not know vaccination status, leaading to lower SD.
This is a good illustration of Jewish symbolism that reminds us of proper behavior – mezuzah, tzitzis, shtreimel … on the opposite side, this is like good/bad neighbor from pirkei avos – your risk depends on the neighbors.
I actually like good conspiracies and am always disappointed when some turn out to not be true. So, here is my theory how bad actors (Russians, Chinese) create dissent in free countries:
1) attach to a community who are already deeply skeptical: note how Ivermectin is somehow mixed up with anti-vax and anti-mask crowd. There is no good reason that arguments for a good medicine need to be correlated with those.
2) Find a product that are not very toxic, cheap, and have unclear test results, such as Ivermectin. They don’t care about what works – no controversy, what is toxic – hard to find volunteers. Easy to find products with unclear results in the current noise of course.
3) Build a story why “establishment” does not want this medicine – allege corruption, discredit large trials because they are, by definition, run by large organization … I won’t be surprised that CCP or KGB could be running some of those small trials themselves.
End result: doubling the rate of killing Americans. That is, this cheap propaganda is as effective as the original virus.
So, how can you avoid hashash of being a partner with CCP if you sincerely believe in Ivermectin cure? Very simple. Detach the drug from the other ideas: go help people to get vaccines, wear masks, organize outside minyanim, and THEN offer Ivermectin to those who still get sick. Then, people will be more likely to take your arguments seriously.
Gmar hasima tova
COVID definitely affects fertility. Not even talking about niftarim here, deep coughing and sneezing are certainly not attractive. In a long term, a yeshiva bochur who did not have seychel to vaccinate may lose out on a shver who could afford to social distance his family.
Let’s go group-by-group:
1) Those who are of age, vaccine seems to be a must and most people understand it. Many of them are already blessed with childen, grand and great-grandchildren
2) Those who are young, did not have COVID and are social distancing – a reasonable question why experiment with a vaccine, may make sense waiting
3) Those who are young, did not have COVID and are NOT social distancing – they are highly likely to get Delta and thus, the question is: what is more risky – virus from Wuhan Lab or vaccine from Pfizer. Both not tested in long term and somewhat risky. Only a Chinese asset would claim that virus is less risky, though.
4) Those who already had COVID. Teiku for now. Maybe have one vaccine and be careful.Are we affected by environment on these issues? for example, would anyone use lace ir non-lace sheitel in today’s Kabul? Presumably, Taliban would be OK with Jewish women following our own halakha .. If yes, whom would they ask
> place of unification of Jews, in Beis Haknesses to daven and Beis Hamedrash to learn,
RebE, I was got involved into a (questionable) enterprise that attempted to have parallel kabolos shabbos by O- and non-O congregations with further shmooze l’derech shalom. Planning quickly exposed various fault lines.
I asked the Rav who responded succinctly – “Jews can’t pray together, but they can learn together”.
This is maybe why Moshe went to Beis Medrash .. and something to remember in these dividing times…Chaimy, whitecar – yes, along with defensive driving and driving middos.
I see a list of cases where we need some sort of third-party kashrus supervision, when decision makers are nogeah b’davar:
– Jews in EY estimating that they can take more from the government because of their contribution
– Jews in US taking welfare funds, justifying that they are using them for good reasons, quoting from CR – welfare worker said that they like how we spend welfare money on doing good things
– Jewish organizations saying that it is OK to attend shuls/schools (that they run) despite government decrees, or getting close to the lineThis does not look different from a butcher certifying his own meat… Even if you do not cheat directly, you are bound to be biased.
R Twersky quotes a question from a local Rav whose very annoying congregant wants an advice regarding make aliyah. Rav would be happy to buy the guy a ticket himself, so he is asking – can he advise the guy. R Twersky answers – no way you can, tell him (ambiguously) – “I can not beobjective “because of our (close?) relationship”
Ujm, Avira – regarding those who justify taking money “back” from the state. This seems to be against the Gemora about Rav Huna whose wine soured because he did not pay his workers – who already helped themselves by stealing from him. R Huna deserved either an open (vinegar -> wine) or a hidden (vinegar price = wine price) miracle for doing teshuva.
I am also not sure if I will be “justified” getting some extra funds from the government if I estimate that I got less from the government than I paid in taxes… They might knock on the door with gentle
Obama’s “you did not build that”,There is something universal in religious experience that makes people feel that they are not just above the law, but above Hashem’s natural laws. A recent research in Bangladesh looked at community-level effect of masking – they advertised masks in some villages and compared with similar villages without advertisement.
One of interesting results was that masking lead to increase in SD, rather than decrease as famous sociologist Fauci was afraid. Specifically – SD increased in market places, but did not in mosques … Maybe somehow people think that doing Hashem’s will protect them.
> militantly atheistic socialists took over Russia
There is a difference, of course – you could not appeal Soviet decrees, while you could governor’s. Turns out, the governor can even resign under pressure! So, what is a reason to disobey when you have democratic means – courts, elections. You can also move from NY to Alabama.
RebE > he could be a lefty and still put tefilin on the left hand
exactly. I would prefer the gabbai not remember my full name, but simply remembering when to call me for hagbah.
Re: broken etzim. Sounds like this twisted maneuver puts the etzim at risk and one would need to pay for, and find a servicer, for the repairs. Refuah shleima.
Refuah Shleima. Common sense advice – lead healthy lifestyle after that and do an overall medical checkup.
I am not sure why we are still debating pro- and against vaccines. Historical hesitancy of vaccines and greater caution in testing is due to unbalanced risks – vaccine given to whole population v. a small chance of getting sick. For example, there were 15K polio cases a YEAR in US in 1950s for 150M population. Currently, we have 80K hospital admissions per WEEK for just 2x higher population.
Thus, given a high chance of exposure to the virus for anyone who is mixing up with the public, the chance of having a virus is at best 5x lower than 100% exposure to the vaccine. Then, as already mentioned, you ismply compare risk from wild or created virus v. risk from a vaccine that was made to help, and it is obvious that vaccine risk is less. It is like comparing risk of infection v. antibiotics., or bullet and surgery.
> The countries that mass distributed Ivermectin to part or all of their population with tightly correlated and reproducible “flattening the curve” of every covid metric (like Mexico, Peru, India, just to name a few),
What is the claim specifically? I looked up Mexico, and their cumulative deaths are same as USA, their case fatality rate is several times higher than USA.
Moshe Rabbeinu previously complained that politics is too much for him. So, now, as he is done with politics, and Yehoshua is taking over and will deal with practicalities of applying Torah to real life in Eretz Isroel, Moshe went to spend remaining hours on his birthday to learn lishma, rather than answering shailos.
Gabbai needs to remember who is a lefty and call them when appropriate and not call them when not appropriate.
Sephardi Torahs are built better for Hagbah even with all the silver.
My Chasidishe Rosh Yeshiva taught that Eretz Isroel has inherent kedusha, while in other places we need to work to create islands of kedusha.
> President Bush would stand when speaking to his father,
I would think Bush Sr would prefer Bush Jr to not stand, but rather follow his advice … Not saying which one was wiser, just food for thought about what respect is.
ujm > Newer cars costs around $60 per oil change in NYC.
so, if you earn less than $60/hour, same applies. Furthermore, you do an oil change while on a trip off the island. I presume “newer” car means at least capable of crossing a bridge, not like some “older” NY cars.
Avram > You seem to bring up full-time learners quite frequently, no matter the context of the thread. What’s with that?
In this case, I just covered multiple cases where solution might be different – people who earn more, people who earn less, and people who depend on others.
As one illustration that halakha is different where you are independent or not – I quoted R Salanter before that he lowered his kashrus standards when he was on a trip sponsored to improve his health. And there are other examples – vacations, jewelry, tuition, where things are different. Some schools my kids went to are asking (I think appropriately) what camps/vacations kids attend, presumably before deciding on tuition breaks.
Where you are right – that these issues come up often and seems like you are surprised how often. Possibly, people get used to a lifestyle and do not understand the halakhic and lifnei-meshuras =-hadin implications.
As you asked my opinion, I humbly concur with the Gemorah cautioning us that many tried the way of Rashbi and did not succeed.
Avira > lechol hadeos Israeli law doesn’t enjoy the status of dina demalchua,
You can’t say “lechol hadeos”, if there are deos that disagree. You again define “deos” as only those with whom you agree.
If you think that delegitimizing others make your argument here stronger, you are mistaken. It is other way around. I suggest following Beis Hillel quoting R Kook first 🙂
> protesting a law one considers unjust
at the end, US provides democratic means to change the laws provided you can convince the people of such. In the case of MLK, he thought that he needs to have illegal acts and jail as a dramatic step of convincing the public or specific politicians. He did not plan the marches to establish alternative reality to the law.
it is not poshut whether you can be in shorts while on a zoom Torah class, or even a business call.
R Ouerbach used to stand while talking with R Moshe on the phone. Kal’ vehomer on zoom.
I think if you exhausted other approaches to Hashem – starting with healthy lifestyle, medicines, teshuva, tefila, tzedokah, learning, then it is time for the gems.