LerntminTayrah

mdd1, I have shared an article from the day after the attack from Understanding War explaining it. I have shared a piece from an Israeli expert explaining how 90% accuracy (leting through 1 out of 10 missiles) is much easier than 99% accuracy (letting through 1 out of 100 missiles), and 99.9% accuracy (letting through 1 out of a thousand) is that much harder. I have shared the quote from the Biden official who said that the success could not likely be replicated, indicating it was statistically anomalous , ie a neis. Not sure why the Rand article is the one you keep repeating, but that article explains the dfficulties in achieving the coverage. So yes it’s a neis.
Most systems do have a 20 year development lead time, and many older systems are still in use. The US still flies F-15’s even though those are from the 70’s. So yes an exloration of the system from 2001 is still relevant today. And we see from ukraine how tough it is.

Your attempt to explain Fallujah vs Gaza was not cogent. The fact remains that the US, the most well-equipped army in the world, had a death toll 10 times worse than Israel had. That established the baseline. Israel having 90% fewer losses is definitely a neis.
Here is another write-up from the same professor explaining the difference between letting 1 out of 10 missiles through and 1 out of 100, which every bar seichel should understand is much harder and much less likely to be achieved:
Professor of physics, Maximilian Abitbol, who is also an expert on the defense industry had this to say about the events of Saturday night.
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Scientific Proof that what happened on the 6th of Nissan was nothing short of a Miracle* Words written by a Physics Professor who worked in Israel’s Defense Industry

I wanted to share something that is much more than a feeling. Something that comes from a real calculation: What happened in Israel on last Motzaei Shabbat was not less than the scale of the splitting of the Red Sea.

I am a Professor of physics and I worked for several years in the defense industry in Israel, in projects that are still the cutting edge technologies of the defence of the State of Israel. When I look at what happened on Motzai Shabbat, on a scientific level – it simply cannot happen!! Statistically.

The likelihood that everything, but really Everything works out, does not exist in complex systems like the defense systems that were used to defend Israel from the massive Iranian attack.

These systems have never, but never, not only in the State of Israel, been tried in real time!!

I took a pencil and dived into the calculations to check the statistic probability that such a result would materialize. The large number of events that had to be handled, when each missile or UAV is handled independently (that is, human error or some deviation of one operation, is not offset by other successful operations), compounds the chance of making a mistake.

With all the high technologies, a breach was expected in the defense of the skies of the State of Israel.

Even if we got 90% protection it would have been a miracle!!

What happened is that everyone, but everyone – the pilots, the systems operators and the technology operators acted as one man, at one moment in total unity. If this is not an act of G-d, then I no longer know what a miracle is.

It is Greater than the victory of the Six Day War or the War of Independence. Those wars can also be explained through natural events.
BUT
The rescue that took place for the people of Israel on Motzai Shabbat is simply impossible naturally. I believe that this miracle saved the lives of many people from Israel.

If the defense system had failed to intercept a number of cruise missiles, the result would have dragged us into a very complex war. I wouldn’t bet that next time it will work like this without Divine supervision. The simple proof of what I said is that the managers of the defense industries, who develop and manufacture these systems guarantee no more than 90% success!And we all saw, with our own eyes 99.9% !!!

Thank You Hashem!!

“From the day you came out of the land of Egypt I Have Showed you Wonders”,

M. Abitbol

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agav, I am still bewildered by how anyone can deny the nissim of 1967. the Mir was hit by multiple shells and NONE of them exploded:
More Tehillim. A bris in the morning in the [Chevron] yeshivah. At 12:15, I felt it safe to go to the Mir. They were real happy to see me. It was still dangerous but not very noisy. Rav Chaim [Shmuelevitz] gave me shalom and asked how I was. They told me of the nissim that happened. Two direct hits were on the building — one right through the rosh yeshivah zatzal apartment and one in the corner of the Beis Medrash. The roof was also hit direct and a piece is missing. Shells were falling all around and some said vidui. At 2:00 they said Tehillim for 1 1⁄2 hours. In the afternoon they announced on Kol Yisrael about no injuries — neiss chasdei Mir and the hits.

Pleaase see my previous post where I have quoted the exact part of the Vayoel Moshe that backs up Rav Lorincz.

we’re not doing a repeat of this from your other thread. You said it once now done. You have points to make, go ahead, but we aren’t destroying individual posters.

I also felt it’s prudent to point out that the rebuttal of the Gaza death toll being 10 times less than the Fallujah death was ” Arabs can’t fight so of course the tziyoinistim were going to have it easy”. This falls apart when you realize that Fallujah is settled by those very same Arabs. Yet the death toll was ten times higher. The only difference between Fallujah and Gaza is Yidden, in which case you are forced to acknowledge it as a miracle.

“I know nothing about ballistic missiles” is also not a refutation of the miracle that took place.

Nu, some were meant to not be zoiche to see miracles, it is what Hashem decreed. This has nothing to do with Zionism. It has to do with miracles.

mdd1, Iron Dome is a kiddie toy. It goes against slow-moving rockets. It is very successful but is a neis nistar like most technology.

Ballistic missiles are entirely different. Many experts thought that shooting down ballistic missiles in real time was an exercise in futility. To knock down every ballistic missile in a target-rich environment and an overwhelming attack is not derech hateva. But don’t believe me. Do your own research on ballistic missile interceptions and feel free to show me which experts thought it’s easy. Trite sayings don’t compare to facts, and the facts say this is a huge miracle not “teva”.

Here is a repost from “Understanding War”, a defense analysis site. You can google this paragraph to confirm it’s unaltered from the original source and it’s a real website not something made up:
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The strike consisted of approximately 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles.[1] The drones were launched well before the ballistic missiles were fired, very likely in the expectation that they would arrive in Israel’s air defense window at about the same time as the cruise missiles and drones. The Russians have used such an approach against Ukraine repeatedly.[2] The purpose of such a package is to have the slower cruise missiles and drones distract and overwhelm air defenses in order to allow the ballistic missiles, which are much harder to shoot down, to reach their targets. The Iranians very likely expected that few if any of the cruise missiles and drones would hit their targets, but likely hoped that a significantly higher percentage of the ballistic missiles would do so.

Only a few ballistic missiles penetrated Israeli air defenses and struck near Israeli military bases out of the 120 or so the Iranians fired.[3] Ukrainian air defenses have averaged interception rates of only about 16% of Russian ballistic missiles during recent large strikes. The Iranians likely expected that Israeli rates would be higher than the Ukrainian rates but not above 90% against such a large ballistic missile salvo—the Russians, after all, have never fired close to that many large ballistic missiles in a single strike against Ukraine. Ukraine frequently intercepts more than 75% of Russian cruise missiles and drones, but many of those interceptions occur within the air defense umbrella that is also occupied with ballistic missile defense. The Iranians thus likely expected that at least some of their drones and cruise missiles would interfere with Israeli targeting of incoming ballistic missiles, whereas apparently none did.
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In short, a 100% interception rate is NOT bederech hateva in any way shape or form. Feel free to be a Brisker and hate the Zionists and everything they stand for. Just when Hashem performs obvious miracles, don’t deny them.
Obviously even teva is a miracle, just we are used to it. This one was out of the range of teva, and it behooves us to acknowledge it instead of denying it. This is not a proof to Zionism in any way shape or form, just like the miracles of 1948 and 1967 weren’t proofs to Zionism. They are miracles done for the frum people of Eretz Yisroel, not the apikorsim. But they are miracles nonetheless. Hodu Lashem ki tov!

As well, a 2009 article on Cross Currents has Rav Yaakov zt”l saying a bracha after the 6 day war. It also describes how everyone thought Israel was a goner, not like some here have claimed.
Swiped from elsewhere:
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The following comes from HaGaon HaRav Yaakov Kamenetsky’s sefer Emet L’Yaakov.

The Ramban writes that the Chashmonaim – who were kohanim – violated the Biblical rule of “lo yasur shevet mi’Yehudah” by serving as rulers over the Jewish people. Rav Kamenetsky asks an obvious question: How were the Chashmonaim ever enthroned as kings? Didn’t Chazal publicly object?

Rav Kamenetsky suggests that Chazal actually approved of their appointment as kings. Klal Yisrael was so assimilated and their spirits were so low that Chazal felt it necessary to lift their morale by granting them a temporary malchut of Jewish kings. And since this malchut was only designed to be a temporary measure, they specifically did not want descendants of Shevet Yehudah (so as to signify its temporary nature).

Many aspects of the Jewish kingdom at the time were “temporary” or non-ideal in nature. For example, the basic language used was Aramaic, a galut language, and the Aron HaKodesh was not in the Kodesh Kodashim. So non-ideal was the Jews’ situation in Judea that the berachah in the Amidah for the return to Jerusalem was enacted in this era – even though Jews resided in Jerusalem at the time.

By enthroning kohanim as kings over Israel, Chazal wished to emphasize that their era – after the miracle of Chanukah – was not the Ge’ula Shleima as was thought by many at the time.

Rav Kamenetsky argued that the emergence of the state of Israel resembles the enthronement of the Chashmonaim as kings. As a result of the Holocaust, the Jewish people were depressed and saddened. They needed something to uplift their spirits as well as make them feel that Hashem had not forsaken them. Medinat Yisrael was a gesture to transform and uplift Jewish morale.

It is not the Ge’ula Shleima. It is not the z’man of Moshiach. But it is similar to the enthronement of the Chasmonaim to build Jewish pride and morale.
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Not exactly a Zionist, but not Maaseh Satan.

It is a strange alliance of secular Zionists and Satmar followers denying the obvious Yad Hashem and claiming it is due to the might of Israel that this miraculous death toll in Gaza and during the Iranian attack happened.

I wasn’t at the Agudah meeting in question, can’t answer for what happened. But dismissing something because you don’t like what is says is a take.
These words of the Satmar Rebbe zt”l confirm the traditional understanding of maaseh satan:
והנשארים מבני ישראל שהשאיר הקב”ה בעבור שבועתו שלא יכלה זרעו, נענשו גם כן בעונש קשה ומר, במה שצליח מעשה שטן להשיג מלכות המינות לנסות את ישראל בניסיון עצום כזה … וזה ברור כי אותו הרעיון המתועב הוא המעכב גאולתינו ופדות נפשינו.

The Brisker Rav zt”l said chas veshalom to say such a thing, but said th miracles were for the sake of the pure people learning not for the apikorsim who made up much of the zionists.

Itche Meir Levin might be an askan, but he summed up how many felt. Rav Moshe Feinstein zt”l wrote in the darash moshe that 1967 was a miracle. The Brisker Rav zt”l said 1948 was a miracle. Unlike the Satmar Rebbe zt”l, he lived in Eretz Yisroel and would know that better than people living in chutz la’aretz who only know what’s going on based on what they are told by gabboim.

As for the modern open miracles, a death rate 90% less than what was expected is not teva. Neither is a large missile attack doing no damage. One missile backfired and landed in Shiraz, and did a huge amount of damage. We also saw in Ukraine how much damage the drones do. I feel bad that Hashem is showing us open miracles but you are unable to see them.

Sanhedrin 38b:
א”ר יוחנן בר חנינא שתים עשרה שעות הוי היום שעה ראשונה הוצבר עפרו שניה נעשה גולם שלישית נמתחו אבריו רביעית נזרקה בו נשמה חמישית עמד על רגליו ששית קרא שמות שביעית נזדווגה לו חוה שמינית עלו למטה שנים וירדו ארבעה תשיעית נצטווה שלא לאכול מן האילן עשירית סרח אחת עשרה נידון שתים עשרה נטרד והלך לו שנאמר אדם ביקר בל ילין

So left right before shabbos. I am seeing people quote a midrash rabbah that Hashem let him stay until after shabbos. So machlokes in sources.

Is mara kama muchzak or chazaka