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ujm: my comment with statistics was a response to the previous
exactly, and we are polluting internets with these numbers for no reason. And the question you asked is a good one. With all these very noisy numbers, better to look at more numbers and look at robust statistics, such as order, rather than at direct numbers.
So, overall Israel is 56 out of 200+ countries in death rates. Lebanon is 71, Jordan is 62, Turkey 76. Not that far. European and other random countries of similar to Israel economic condition: Greece 49, Spain 17, Poland 32, Germany 45, Serbia 61, Argentina 25. I would say Israel is on average same as peers. And note that poor and non-free countries probably undercount COVID deaths.
If you have time, look at these statistics separately by month. You will probably see countries jumping up and down the list over time. Virus attacks very unevenly. Recall all these Sweden success stories (N 23 total).
ujm, I asked another poster, and I would like to ask you. I am really interested in an answer:
what is the point of quoting statistics out of context?
you can say – Israel is Mth out of N comparable countries, that would give us an idea. You just pick countries from the list with lower numbers. Is Norway comparable to Israel? how big are their school classes? When readers see abuse of statistics they would either (a) skip it with no comment, (b) believe of opposite of what you are trying to proof, as your arguments are not convincing.DY: whether to prioritize minorities in theory
again, define “prioritize” –
1) put some extra vaccine stations in poor neighborhood to facilitate access?
or is it: 2) do not vaccinate Whites until all Blacks (of certain age) are vaccinated?
there is a difference here.
It looked like some states tried to go for option (2) at the beginning, under an euphemism of “essential workers” but are now switching gears to a more balanced approachOrechDin> pandemic came under the leadership
Could you make your argument worth reading? Say, compare Trump’s results with Canada, or UK or EU on all these different parameters. It is really sad that we are arguing like that.
What is your goal? You obviously will only make the opposite side to stick with their opinion seeing that you have no argument. Are you a Republican plant here?!
Charlie, Daas,
you are discussing as if there is perfect data to decide what is better and there is a perfect way to implement a policy. We are dealing with already too much delays due to complex rules. I am pointing you to a Gemora discussing water allocation along the river – we allow the first one to get more water “le darkei shalom” instead of creating an army of inspectors to maximize fairness.Simplify and you will get less angry people in the street. Use the age, and then add a reasonable number of field offices in underprivileged areas. This is already done for testing. All “free testing” sites I heard of are in the poor areas.
We get to be careful when we are agreeing to the word “prioritizing” – it might mean encouraging/making more available OR it might mean cutting off other people.
It sounds like a positive word – who would not want to “prioritize” someone disadvantage, and then the government person who is afraid of being blamed will simply not vaccinate anyone until he found everyone in the previous group, registered them, convinced everyone who does not want to take a vaccine.
Also, when they give you a nice-sounding list of priorities, they might interpret it as each item in the list is a hard priority before next. So, “medical, essential, elderly” might be interpreted as every last admin in the hospital first, then every last college admin, before they give it to anyone over 80….
We need lawyers to talk to our own governmentI think that if the parents are safely isolated, they can safely wait a month. It may be even recommended to let people who are more in danger to go first. At the same time, any old person who is connected to any institutions (nursing home, hospitals, yeshivas) should get it immediately.
After about a month, we will have observational data on millions of people from Israel, US, and UK and we will see immediate effects across all age groups and health conditions.
@Sam, maybe blockchain for tzedokah to ensure optimal anonymity?
! Yeserbius>> so now a lot of clinics are forced to throw out vaccinations
I heard that too. This seems to be totally inappropriate and seems to be changing. I am reading that now people are allowed to come and get it at the end of the day.
Maybe politicians should have been last, not first, in line, then the line will move faster. I know some governors who honorably did not jump the line.
It looks like initial delays are due to some gov folks interpreting “priority” as – we will not go to next group until this whole one is done – and providers are punished for vaccinating the wrong group. Is this the case in NY state? This is different than merely prioritizing who will be the next recipient.
This is where “darkei shalom” approach is applicable – make simply borad rules that are easy to identify – age is a good one, and then focus on doing it rather than arguing about it.
DY, I agree that this consideration might not fully apply to the vaccine.
Argument for bracha – prison/desert are not direct danger, they are just a place where you are very likely to get hurt. So, this is same as unvaccinated person during pandemic.
The way I thought bracha does not apply – a non-careful person’s danger is primarily due to his own actions. But, the danger would still exist for most reasonably behaving people and sources I quoted are ambiguous, so I’ll concede here.
Another interesting aspect raised by Minchas Elazar – we are supposed not to quote Torah in the name of those who are not careful. Anyone can help me understand Minchas Elazar and the sources? B Kama 61b seems to be referring only not to encouraging self-sacrificing, not fully disregarding such a scholar.
Daf to the rescue – it is miracle that any currency is accepted. Going to an exotic currency seems like pushing the miracle too far.
Maybe, as in the lottery thread, it depends on what else you do for hishtadlus. If you have a steady job and want to increase your rate of return investing a little into crypto or lottery, this is one thing.
But, if you did not try to get a profession, and chase miracles instead, this is unseemly. If you learned Torah disregarding your financial status, then you should be happy with your helek. If you now ask Hashem for a miracle to provide for you, it means that you both not value your learning and did not bother to learn a profession. You should at least go take swimming lessons.
today’s WSJ: Europe is closing schools as evidence shows levels of infection, changing their previous November position, quoting multiple studies from UK, Germany, Austria, Swiss..
Still, I think it is clear now that humanity, Jews included, fears children at home more than a pandemic.
So, maybe you can think pragmatically – what can you do: could you strengthen yourself and fulfill “the shinantem levaneha” on your own for one day with one kid? do that. then, see if you can do it for 2 days with 2 kids. Find a subject that you will enjoy teaching, or the one that you would love to learn. Kids will really respect you more when they see you struggling with rishonim or algebra. Maybe we should have a thread for parent self-help … Exchanging 2 algebra quizzes for one English essay.The stats I saw is that a lot of current transmission is in families – one member brings it in, he may not become sick, and makes others sick via prolonged contact.
I would say: if adults are having daily parties, then children are not a problem. Where adults are taking precautions, then children may be a major source of transmission. You will not notice it as most kids will be asymptomatic, but you will see “unexplained” cases in the community, more among parents.
PS
on suicide, on an advise from my kid: if one was psychologically sick, you might be able to say gomel from being cured from that sickness, rather than saying that he committed a son, like R’ Ovadia says.can we say that someone who was not careful re:Covid was not of full capacity due to psychological pressure of kids being at home for months? consult your local Rabbi Dr….
thanks for challenging me. Here is what Gil Student writes online in 2016, summarized. Enjoy and apply.
Do we say the blessing if we emerge from a life-threat we willingly accepted?
In Machazik Berakhah (219:1), Chida quotes a debate on this subject. His father, Rav Yosef Azulai, ruled that the blessing was only enacted for someone who survived an external life threat, not something willingly undertaken. However, Rav Eliezer Nachum (author of Chazon Nachum) ruled that the blessing applies to anyone who survives.
Rav Eliezer Melamed (Peninei Halakhah, Berakhos, Harchavos 16:4) lists three practical implications:Elective Surgery – Tzitz Eliezer 10:25:23) rules that someone who donates a kidney does not bentch Gomel. Rav Ovadiah Yosef (Yechaveh Da’as 4:14) disagrees
Suicide Attempt –Chaim Palaggi (Responsa Lev Chaim 3:53) rules that he should recite the blessing because he was saved, as does Rav Azriel Hildesheimer (Responsa Rav Azriel, vol. 1 no. 29). However, Rav Ovadiah Yosef (ibid.) disagrees. Attempting suicide is a sin. How can someone recite a blessing generated by the sin?
Release From Prison: Some people who are convicted of a crime can avoid prison by paying a fine or ransom. If they choose not to pay and instead suffer the prison sentence
Ri Mi-Gash (no. 90) – yes, ha’arei Teshuvah (219:2) quotes him as yes without the shem
R. Simcha Rabinowitz (Piskei Teshuvos, vol. 2 219:11) sees this Sha’arei Teshuvah as a companion to the general view (of Rav Yosef Azulai) that someone who puts himself in danger should not bentch Gomel if he is saved.Rav Chaim Elazar Shapira (Minchas Elazar 4:47) discusses whether you may place yourself in life-threatening danger in order to learn Torah or earn money. He concludes that it is forbidden and that others may not quote a Torah insight in the name of someone who endangers his own life in order to learn Torah (based on Bava Kamma 61a). However, if someone did place his life in danger for pure purposes in order to learn Torah and was saved, he may bentch Gomel, but not someone who undertook the danger for monetary profit. When it comes to profit, no ones intention is ever completely pure.
There are no absolutes at this point, we need to think how to improve things incrementally:
ujm: children are *NOT* a major spreader
indeed, probability of passing the virus is lower with age. Teenagers are same as adults. Having more close contacts increases that. So, if you are in a community where nobody is careful, then (elementary/middle) school are not a priority. But, where there are some adults who are more careful, children in schools are a relative high risk.Ari256: probably need to focus more on providing families tools to teach their children at home, whether it is one day a week or anything else. The less children are at school at the same time, the better.
RR> Gambling is mutar according to the RaMA. The Beis Yosef holds it’s assur.
Yt> I’m not sure who to hold byJust roll a dice
Syag >> Why not?
I somehow recalled learning that one does not say gomel after endangering himself recklessly, but I can not find a source. So, I’ll rephrase it as a question. Anyone else heard this?
@Shady >> how would the masses be expected to receive a fair account
I think you are asking a fair question and this question is behind the confused mass of protest. We had a complicated event with lots of rule changes comparing with usual elections + information blocks. Thus, it is impossible to prove – and impossible to reject – any hypothesis. With that, everyone is following their own biases and the society can not agree with anything.
I think these events help us understand “moris ayn” better. Public policies should be conducted in a way that assures people of integrity, rather than using “caveat emptor” approach – where the opposite side needs to prove misbehavior.
huju>> Stalin tried to eliminate farm ownership
We tried it already. Yoma 69 – Talmidei Hahamim banned Yetzer Hara, people stopped going to work and getting married. Hens did not produce eggs.
It seems that Warp speed shifting to the correct idea that priority should be simply based on age.
those who put themselves unnecessarily in danger (not wore masks, went to crowded places without a compelling need) probably should not say a bracha.
Do you say a bracha at a 95% statistics? Also, you are also experiencing a little pain and worrying about side effects. Most importantly, protection will start about 10 days after the vaccine – can you say a bracha on something that will happen 10 days later?!
Maybe gomel, bli shem, is more appropriate, at about 10 days after first dose, where presumably risk of serious sickness diminishes.
@Rabbaim, indeed. Wife of one of baalei mussar (maybe Alter from Slobodka?) bought a lottery. He immediately called witnesses and wrote a shtar that he has nothing to do with the money in case she will win. He was terrified with possible responsibility to use it properly.
I am reading about a local restaurant owner who was there peacefully, posted about it somewhere, then posted an apology. Online mob responded that they are not going to that restaurant ever and “who knew those restaurant owners are mostly Republicans”. Another person fired from a medical job when recognized on a video, also not as part of disturbances.
To amplify the zaidy – you are not allowed to rely on miracles. So, you need to give Hashem a chance to support you through normal channels. Many people go and learn a profession. But for those of us on a higher madregah, it is sufficient to buy a lottery ticket.
A practical advice: don’t buy the losing tickets, they are a waste of money and asur to buy. But just the winning ticket, and maybe a couple of losing ones to avoid ayin hara of people saying that things are too easy for you.
Let us know how it worked out.
during 2024 campaign, Republican candidates will have a debate. After the debate, they’ll be removed from Twitter, lose their AOL accounts, and have FICO score revoked because they all were advocating verbal violence against the lawful President of the country. House will pro-actively impeach them all. This would be the new 2024 word: pre-peach.
Distribution is pretty even by state. Percentage of those used varies from 20% to 50%, excluding several outliers. I don’t see ideological difference – Dakotas and CT are at the top and Deep South and Left coast are at the bottom. Geography gives a better pattern – NE and MidWest are doing better, Deep South, Industrial North MidWest and Left Coast are doing worse.
It looks like biggest problem is that states are trying to follow rigid rules – do Group 1a and only later 1b, including that, Ch’V, minority groups do not suffer. So, they are not opening up to next group until they deal with previous groups, including getting written permissions, dealing with those who do not want it. Some hospitals are scared to even give left-over vaccine to the unapproved groups. This requires advanced planning, so some states complain that Feds have chutzpah to send them vaccine without giving a multi-week advanced notice to plan everything right… Sounds like some leaders are seeing the light and opening up – FL, TX and now NY.
This appears to be discussed in, IIRC, Bava Metzia – when there is a river, we allow those who get water first to take as much as they want “l derech shalom” – instead of having government measuring how much everyone takes to make it fair.
State/Territory/Federal Entity Shots per Distributed (CDC, Jan 9, ordered from highest)
West Virginia 69%
North Dakota 68%
South Dakota 54%
Connecticut 53%
Nebraska 48%
New Hampshire 47%
Vermont 46%
District of Columbia 44%
Montana 44%
Maine 43%
Tennessee 43%
Iowa 42%
Rhode Island 42%
New Mexico 39%
Colorado 38%
New York State 36%
Kentucky 35%
Oklahoma 35%
Ohio 35%
Utah 35%
Texas 34%
Massachusetts 34%
Indiana 32%
Maryland 31%
Kansas 31%
Missouri 31%
Wisconsin 30%
Illinois 30%
Florida 30%
Minnesota 29%
Hawaii 29%
Delaware 28%
Pennsylvania 28%
North Carolina 27%
New Jersey 27%
Virginia 27%
Alaska 26%
Louisiana 26%
Wyoming 26%
Washington 26%
Oregon 26%
California 25%
South Carolina 25%
Nevada 24%
Michigan 24%
Arizona 23%
Idaho 23%
Puerto Rico 22%
Mississippi 22%
Alabama 20%
Guam 20%
Arkansas 18%
Georgia 17%
Northern Mariana Islands 17%
American Samoa 12%
Republic of Palau 9%
Virgin Islands 5%
Federated States of Micronesia 2%
Marshall Islands 0%There is an interesting lesson on “daas Torah” (even if this principle is not in the Torah or Talmud) in this parsha and midrashim – Moshe goes to zekenim first, they follow him but jump off one-by-one during the trip – and due to this lack of leadership, their further role is diminished, including not receiving Torah at Sinai directly. They still stayed as zekenim, right? Or was there an election in between?
Related in Pesachim 50: one should marry daughter of (1st perference) – talmid chacham, 2nd – gedolei hador (politicians?). Somehow, some people in our generation call talmidtei chachamim gedolei hador. Seems this is insulting both categories – lowering T.Ch. to the next category and disregarding Ged. H. as a group.
Well, Trumps’ speech was pretty long, but Twitter’s statement is pretty short (and Orwellian). They claim that these two statements are “glorification of violence” due to “context around them”.
1) “The 75,000,000 great American Patriots who voted for me, AMERICA FIRST, and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, will have a GIANT VOICE long into the future. They will not be disrespected or treated unfairly in any way, shape or form!!!”
2) “To all of those who have asked, I will not be going to the Inauguration on January 20th.”
There are lots of interesting ideas floating around – decreasing each dose (sounds more reasonable than giving just one), prioritize older v. essential, etc. I don’t think there are easy answers.
It well may be that Biden’s centralized approach may pick up on a good idea. There is a risk that it will be a bad one. So far, US does as good as UK and a little ahead of EU. Other than Israel, nobody found the best path. It well may be that it is just noise who many people were vaccinated by now: after figuring out the system, most of available vaccine will be used, and we will be limited by manufacturing for months to come.
It is a clear test of integrity for Biden: he can say that he continues/improves what was done under Trump, or he can continue saying that everything was wrong under Trump, and he will be do everything better. He has an incentive to follow the second path – things are getting in place, more people are getting vaccinated, so he can just surf the wave and claim the success
Very good question. We need to always to look at original text.
ABC news has a full text of Trump’s speech
titled: trump-told-supporters-stormed-capitol-hill and story id is 75110558Charlie>> outdoor events with everyone wearing masks don’t spread the virus.
You can’t prove this from BLM. There is a paper that looked at cities with BLM violence over summer, comparing COVID and mobility statistics with other comparable cities. They conclude: BLM cities have decreased COVID stats due to decreased mobility. That is, most people were _NOT_ at the protests and was staying at home due to violence.
What about Shmuel being unhappy when Jews (democratically) ask him to establish the monarchy?
Btw, most nations had kings for centuries not because they were dumb and never heard about democracy. Democracy was not considered viable – with masses of uneducated people making decisions. That is why we do not live in a democracy, but in a Republic.
We partially solved the “uneducated” problems in 20th century, but created an opposite one. Now, there are oligopolies in education and information industries, so people (aka voters) get fed well-crafted information en masse. We can see this in almost every discussion – everyone is capable of coming up with a statistics that confirm their views, selected from some source somewhere.
I think the reasons for the public frustration is this lack of reasonable discussion. If the country would let Trump use his considerable energy to fight Chinese, Russians, and COVID instead of NYT front page, we would be in a much better place right now.
Dr. Nat >> Daf Yomi in any way compares to the learning that the yungerleit do when learning full-time
This is a good point. I think some busy professionals sign up for an activity with an eye on regularity to help keep learning. I am doing Daf Y this time, and I see that I am gaining in regularity but I am either not interested in half of pilpul on a page, or I am doing written or mental notes to research interesting issues and ideas that (literally) zoom by. I also found it harder to derail the class with probing questions in the zoom setting. In person, everyone gets into the same mood, less so online.
On the opposite side, I would like to understand the value of yungerleit learning, if this learning does not transfer into ability to make decision. We see it now with COVID. If you don’t understand ahavta reehah k’mocha, or hillul Hashem, I dare say you may have not fully grasped that tosfos also.
Maharal, similarly, explains that the value of Bavli (in comparison with Yerushalmi) is developing methodology to resolve new problems. I’d like to see some evidence that yungerleit of the last 50 years have this ability.
R berl Wein reports that, I think, his father, as a kid, learned about Rosh Hodesh, from their Lithuanian helper.
CTL >> If the offer is refused, the former employee loses benefits
This is not easy to do for any sensitive position. So, you are getting unemployment claim from someone who just quit. You send him a job offer and he accepts it and comes back under duress. I would not want this employee in my office.
Halachik aspect: we are supposed to treat employees with some leeway to make sure they do not feel enslaved (i.e. be not in control of himself and his time). For example, employees can leave on a spot and you are not supposed to force him work further. This offer essentially forces him to work.
R’ Asher Weiss in an August lecture discusses what levels of danger is allowed. His conclusion, I think, is that a “1 in 1000” (figuratively) dangerous situation is allowed provided the person is in control of the situation and is following safety measures, i.e. ok to ride a boat (with a life jacket), ride a bike (with a helmet). At the same time, it is not always an issue of percentage, but of numbers. That is, if 1% of women are at risk during birthing, we need to be careful. Given the large numbers involved, being careful will save, say, 100 lives (don’t think “it is only 0.1%”). He applies same logic to COVID.
Applying this to riding bikes in the city – 1) you are not fully in control, as you are at mercy of drivers and helmet is not going to protect from them, 2) think of psychology of a person who is going to do that – can you guarantee that they’ll stay safe (R’ Weiss starts lamenting how careless religious community in Israel is, and how many accidents happen)
When our oldest were small, we had a neighbor, an avid and a very experienced biker. He was hit by a truck, had a major operation and a titanium implant in his leg. My wife stopped teaching kids biking. No, not after she heard about an accident. Only after we asked the neighbor how he is doing, and he said it will be a couple of months before he feels good enough to bike again.
huju: I don’t know exactly what we are doing, but it is working. calm down and find something else to rant about.
A good point! I believe we are doing exactly what Am Israel was doing all the time – worrying, arguing, and looking for a better way forward. So, calm down, and rant better!
Beyond direct manipulation, responsa consists of answers to our questions, so WYAISWYG (what you ask is what you get).
I learned this accidently: my Teacher gave a class on Jewish business ethics and, inter alia, commented that responsa in Poland was full of ethical questions, but gradually ethical questions disapparede and only questions of pots & pans kashrus remained.
I commented after the class: “so it is _your_ fault” [ i.e. Rabbis’ fault that ethics is not discussed enough], and got immediate response:
” No, it is _your_ fault” [ that is, you people should be asking better questions, then we will be answering them!]So, any time you post on YWN, think that it might influence what the poskim of this generation will be writing about [and poskim of next generation will be learning]
Reb E, I think all Presidents (and just candidates) have NPD, it does not detract from what they achieve. I don’t think ADHD is prevalent among Presidents.
ADHD is not lack of attention. As I understand it, “normal” person activates one area of the brain in response to a stimulus, an “ADHD” person activates multiple areas at the same time.
Many jobs require first type – pilots, surgeons, school principals. Others, like your son and like a lot of very creative people, do well in jobs that require combining multiple pieces of information, questioning the tasks they are given instead of following instructions they were given.
As most people are not creative, they are annoyed by more creative ones and trying to medicate or beat them into submission. If you show a page of Bavli to a psychologist, I bet Bavli will be given ritalin and told to go learn Shulchan Oruch like everyone else.
@Real_1: many girls that in sem they are taught to only want boys who are full time learning
It is a community problem… I have a simple explanation of a mis-balance between talmidei chachamim and those who want to marry one: it takes a lot of learning to become a talmid chacham – and it is much easier for a girl to _want_ to marry a talmid chacham! Less price – more demand. Econ 101. Of course, those girls will pay later, if, has vesholom, they marry someone who stayed in yeshiva for the sake of a shiduch (compounding if averah of not working with learning lo l’shma).
So, for you personally, maybe instead of adjusting to wrong expectations, you should look at working families and daughters who have a better grasp of reality and halakha. Maybe you need to review if you are limiting your search to certain communities or conditions that lead you to people with the attitudes you do not want. If you know that a seminary teaches bad values, just avoid the graduates.
Fake News. There are no COVID cases in NK!
Khe-KheGadol, with all headlines, US is N4 – after Israel, Bahrain, UK …
As Brits commented after WW1, and then after WW2: Americans will always do the right thing after exhausting all the alternatives. The serious part of that was: Americans refused to listen to British prior experiences, made same mistaken, then quickly switched to other mistakes, until finding the right path. Brits were still re-living their first mistakes.Same thing here: there are many unknowns here. In a month, some state will figure out the path, and others will follow. So far, I am concerned about time spent on finding the right politically correct groups. Seems like some states are turning to age-based. It is a hard balance
One thing that might be correct is happening in UK – giving one dose and waiting 3 months for the 2nd, instead of “reserving doses”